Featured Content

TRIPLE YOUR MONEY IN A MONTH!

TRIPLE YOUR MONEY IN A MONTH!

Still worried about the economy? Become an elite charter member of George's DAILY PROFITS and you could... TRIPLE YOUR MONEY IN A MONTH! George gave us the $2.8-billion IT infrastructure provider, up 4,745.20%; the $1.8-billion advertising agency, up 1,295.44%; and the $762 million business software company, up 1,213.19%. Only charter members can follow George daily. Learn how here!

Fourth-Quarter U.S. Corporate Earnings Outlook

By

Companies in key stock indices like the S&P 500 have started reporting their corporate earnings for the fourth quarter of 2012.

There is a heavy concentration of earnings in a small number of S&P 500 companies. Only 10 companies in the S&P 500 make up 88% of all corporate earnings for the index as per Morgan Stanley research; the other 490 companies only make up a menial 12% of the total corporate earnings of the S&P 500. (Source: Business Insider, November 26, 2012.)

According to Thompson Reuters, fourth-quarter corporate earnings for S&P 500 companies are only expected to grow 1.9% year-over-year. Only three months ago, this earnings estimate was as high as 9.9%; this past summer, fourth-quarter 2012 earnings were expected to be 13.7% higher than fourth-quarter 2011 earnings. (Source: Streetwise, January 12, 2013.)

Since it’s still early, not many companies in the S&P 500 index have reported their fourth-quarter 2012 earnings, but from those that have reported, it is not encouraging. For example, Bank of America Corporation (NYSE/BAC) saw its corporate earnings fall 63% in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE/C), another big bank on the S&P 500, missed its fourth-quarter corporate earnings forecast. The CEO of the bank, Michael Corbat, explained the poor corporate earnings by saying, “It will take some time to work through the challenges of the current environment.” (Source: CNN Money, January 17, 2013.)

But even with the poor numbers in from Bank America and Citigroup, optimism towards key stock indices is increasing at a surprising rate. (Remember, the more optimism increases amongst stock advisor and investors, the more bearish it is for the stock market.)

Corporate earnings growth for the fourth quarter of 2012, at this point, is questionable. With Thompson Reuters predicting growth of only 1.9% for fourth-quarter earnings, a few surprises could easily turn corporate earnings growth into contraction.

As I have been saying in these pages recently, the stock market is piling up a lot of risk and missing the most important ingredient to any sustainable stock market rally: corporate earnings. Investors should be very cautious at these recent key stock market index highs. We could be in the midst of a market top and investors surely don’t want to be caught in it.

What He Said:

“The proof the party is over in the U.S. housing market could not be clearer to me. The price action of the new-home builder stocks is telling the true story—these stocks are falling in price daily (and the media is not picking it up.) Those that will hurt most when the air is finally let out of the housing market balloon will be those buyers who bought in late 2005. In fact, the latecomers to the U.S. housing market may end up looking like the latecomers to the tech-stock rally that ended so abruptly in 1999.” Michael Lombardi in Profit Confidential, March 1, 2006. Michael started warning about the crisis coming in the U.S. real estate market right at the peak of the boom, now widely believed to be 2005.

Premium Content

Secret "New Swiss Bank Account" Safest Way to 44% Returns

Secret

It's the safest—but, until now, completely ignored—place for your money. Because these elite "bank accounts" pay guaranteed 5% cash payments per annum on top of returns on capital exceeding 44%... Learn all about them here.

About the Author, Browse Michael Lombardi's Articles

Michael Lombardi founded investor research firm Lombardi Publishing Corporation in 1986. Michael is also the founder and editor-in-chief of the popular daily e-letter, Profit Confidential, where readers get the benefit of Michael’s years of experience with the stock market, real estate, economic forecasting, precious metals, and various businesses. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Michael has authored more than thousands of articles on investment and money management and is the author of several successful... Read Full Bio »

Exclusive profit Confidential Presentation

Secret Retirement Plan Pays Up to $12,160 a Month?

Secret Retirement Plan Pays Up to $12,160 a Month?

A select group of Americans are retiring with a little-known retirement plan whose advertisement by its issuers is censored by Congress... Yet this plan enables Americans to potentially collect up to $12,160 in monthly income that's sponsored entirely by large-cap American companies. These secret Sponsored Retirement Plans are trumping social security by up to 10 times. And unlike mainstream retirement plans like 401(k)s or IRAs, SRPs are ideal for people who want to start with very little money. You could begin your SRP with as little as $10, $50, $100 or $400. To see real-life stories of folks who've built hundred-thousand-dollar portfolios thanks to SRPs and how to get your own plan started today, click here now!

×