Where is S&P 500 headed? This question is being asked everywhere now days. Some mainstream stock advisors are saying that we are going to break the all-time high on the S&P 500 and the pullback in the market is temporary. They are chanting “Buy now or you will miss it.”
Sadly, I don’t think they are looking beyond the hype. There are more reasons to be worried than to cheer for a stock market rally. The S&P 500 and other key stock indices are missing the most basic ingredients that drive the markets to the upside: corporate earnings and business confidence.
So far, 468 of the S&P 500 companies have reported their third-quarter corporate earnings—that’s 93.6% of the constituents. Surprisingly, 71% have reported corporate earnings above what the markets were expecting, but only 40% of them beat the revenue expectations. The overall earnings for the third quarter for S&P 500 companies are down -0.2%. (Source: Factset, November 16, 2012.)
In addition to corporate earnings being dismal, businesses are also planning to scale back on spending and delay projects. They are worried about the uncertainties in the U.S. economy and the global economy—exports, a recession-infested eurozone, a slowing China, and the U.S. federal government’s budget plans. Business investments in equipment and software, a key indicator gauging the economic activity of corporate America, slowed down for the first time since early 2009 in the third quarter of 2012. (Source: Wall Street Journal, November 18, 2012.)
Some S&P 500 companies that are planning to cut capital spending include Texas Instruments Incorporated (NYSE/TXN), Harris Corporation (NYSE/HRS) and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ/AAPL). Similarly, Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE/CAT), another S&P 500 company, which expected to spend $4.0 billion in building and expanding this year, it is now retracting that target.
Looking forward, the corporate earnings pictures does not look like it will improve.
What we already know is that the S&P 500 companies are expecting their fourth-quarter corporate earnings growth to be worse than third-quarter earnings growth. I, for one, will not be surprised to see poor fourth-quarter 2012 earning growth from the S&P 500 companies.
For the stock market and key stock indices like S&P 500 to go up, corporate America needs to make money and spend. The stock market cannot run forever on artificially low interest rates, record government spending, and record money printing, just like a car can’t run on air. In the end, all stock markets rise or fall based on the corporate earnings growth of the companies that trade in the market. And I simply don’t see 2013 being a better year for corporate earnings growth in the U.S. than 2012.
What He Said:
“As for the stock market, it continues along its merry way oblivious to what is happening to homebuyers’ wealth. (Since 2005 I have been writing about how the real estate bust would be bigger than the boom.) In 1927, the real estate market crashed and the stock market, even back then, carried along its merry way for two more years until it eventually crashed. History has a way of repeating itself.” Michael Lombardi in Profit Confidential, November 21, 2007. A dire prediction that came true.
More Reason to Be Bearish on the Stock Market… was last modified: November 29th, 2012 by Michael Lombardi, MBA
Michael Lombardi founded investor research firm Lombardi Publishing Corporation in 1986. Michael is also the founder of the popular daily e-letter, Profit Confidential, where readers get the benefit of Michael’s years of experience with the stock market, real estate, economic forecasting, precious metals, and various businesses. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Michael has authored more than thousands of articles on investment and money management and is the author of several successful investing publications,... Read Full Bio »
Forecasts Aug. 29, 2015
Immediate term outlook:
The bear market rally in stocks that started in March 2009, extended because of unprecedented central bank money printing, is coming to an end. Gold bullion is up $1,000 an ounce since we first recommended it in 2002 and we are still bullish on the physical metal.
Short-to-medium term outlook:
World economies are entering their slowest growth period since 2009. The Chinese economy grew last year at its slowest pace in 24 years. Japan is in recession. The eurozone is in depression. With almost half the S&P 500 companies deriving revenue outside the U.S., slower world economic growth will negatively impact revenue and earnings growth of American companies. Domestically, America’s gross domestic product grew by only a meager 2.3% in the second quarter, which will negatively impact an already overpriced equity market.
Estimates Aug. 29, 2015
Trailing 12-month EPS for Dow Jones companies (Most Recent Quarter)