Real Estate Market
The roots of America’s financial crisis can be traced back to 2007, when the U.S. housing bubble burst. This sent the dominos tumbling and the United States into an economic meltdown in 2008. Despite government intervention, the economy has sputtered and slipped in and out of recession.
What most investors and analysts failed to realize as the bubble burst for the housing market is that much of the U.S. economy—millions of jobs—are related to the real estate market.
Since 2001, readers have turned to Michael Lombardi’s famous daily economic newsletter Profit Confidential for stock market guidance. Analyzing the real estate market is of utmost importance to figuring out where our general economy is headed.
In our daily Profit Confidential e-letter, we regularly comment on the U.S. housing market and the real estate market. Is it time to buy real estate? Where are housing prices headed?
In a June 6, 2005 Profit Confidential article, Michael started warning about the crisis coming in the U.S. real estate market just as it was peaking: “The conversation at parties is no longer about the stock market, it’s about real estate. Looking around, it would be very difficult to find people who believe that one day it could be out of vogue to own real estate because the properties would be such a bad investment. Those investors who believe a dark day will never come for the property markets are just fooling themselves.”
In July, Michael told Profit Confidential readers, “The U.S. lowered interest rates in 2004 to their lowest level in 46 years. And, what did Americans do with their access to easy money? They borrowed and borrowed some more, investing the borrowed money into real estate. Looking ahead, perhaps the Fed’s actions (of lowering interest rates to entice consumers to borrow more than they can afford) will, one day, be regarded as one of the most costly errors committed by it or any other banking system in the last 75 years.”
In 2006, Profit Confidential “begged” its readers to get out of the housing market before it plunged. On August 2, 2006, Michael predicted, “I’m getting very worried about the state of the U.S. housing market and its ramifications on the economy. The U.S. could be headed for its first annual decline in home prices on record, adjusted for inflation. And, I really believe this could be a catastrophe for the U.S. economy.”
Michael was also one of the first to predict the housing bubble would decimate the U.S. economy and slip into recession. On March 22, 2007, he warned, “Over the past few weeks I’ve written about subprime lenders and how their demise will hurt the U.S. housing market, the economy, and the stock market. There’s no escaping the carnage headed our way because the housing market and subprime business are falling apart. The worst of our problems, because of the easy money made available to borrowers, which fuelled the housing boom that peaked in 2005, has yet to arrive.”
At the same time, Michael wrote that former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was quoted as saying, “The worst is over for the U.S. housing market, and there will be no economic spillover effects from the poor housing market.”
During the previous recession, residential construction was a major factor to recovery. Not so this time. Why? The homebuilding industry was collateral damage in past recessions. This time around, it was a major cause of the Great Recession. Over-building, brought on by over-zealous banks, easy credit, and a mountain of debt, has left the U.S economy in an extremely fragile state.
Reminding Profit Confidential readers to exit the U.S. housing market was the best real estate guidance we have ever offered. Today, we regularly follow housing prices in major American cities, foreclosure rates, interest rates, and home building stocks, not only for guidance as to where the real estate market is headed—but as guidance as to where the overall economy may be headed.
The New Housing Boom
By Mitchell Clark, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential
My cousin and his family had to walk away from their house in Arizona. There were no buyers, and they were underwater after the market crashed. The whole thing was really hard on them on all fronts, and they had to move. They’re in Colorado now, closer to family, with the ordeal behind them.
Like most things, timing is everything. In real estate, institutional investors are buying homes like crazy to rent out. The new housing boom is for rentals.
The Wall Street Journal wrote that The Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE/BX) is buying homes at a rate of about $100 million a week, with institutional investors now making up a third of all cash buyers. Affordability for individuals is going to get squeezed.
On the stock market, homebuilder stocks continue to roar. Lennar Corporation (NYSE/LEN) reported excellent strength in its financial results.
According to the company, its fiscal first quarter of 2013 (ended February 28, 2013), produced revenue growth of 37% to $990 million. New orders grew 34% to 4,055 homes; the company’s order backlog grew 82% to 4,922 homes. Earnings for Lennar grew significantly to $57.5 million, or $0.26 per diluted share, compared to net earnings of $15.0 million, or $0.08 per diluted share.
On the stock market, institutional investors have bid the stock up 30 points since last October. (See “Stock Market Sinkhole: ‘It Didn’t Look Unstable’.”) It’s a stock market breakout for sure, but it’s based on fundamentals. Lennar’s stock chart is below:
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
Homebuilder PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE/PHM) quintupled on the stock market over the last six months. Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE/HOV) … Read More
Will Housing Stocks Crash?
By Sasha Cekerevac, BA for Profit Confidential
One of the most often talked about parts of the economy is the real estate market sector. Because real estate is such a large and important part of the economy, naturally, many eyes are focused on whether or not this market sector can and will rebound from its deep decline.
While we have certainly seen a strong bounce off the bottom, there are still many concerns for the future of both the real estate market sector and housing stocks, specifically. Investors in housing stocks are definitely ahead of the curve, as many housing stocks have increased substantially. With gains in excess of 100%, the question on many people’s minds is: will the real estate market sector continue its upward trajectory or are housing stocks teetering on the edge of a massive decline?
I think recent comments by the CEO of D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE/DHI), Donald Tomnitz, can illuminate a lot. Tomnitz stated in a conference call that he was quite concerned that the lack of jobs might lead to lower home sales next year. D.R. Horton is, by volume, the largest homebuilder in America. One of the most sobering moments was when Tomnitz stated, “I also see the fact that there are potential layoffs in a number of industries, especially the defense industry.” (Source: “D.R. Horton Falls as CEO Cautions on Job Growth Next Year,” Bloomberg, November 12, 2012.)
The question isn’t the current level of the real estate market sector. For the fourth quarter, which ended September 30, 2012, D.R. Horton reported net income of $100 million, a massive increase of 180% from the prior year’s quarter. Revenue … Read More
The Stock Market & Oil Prices: A Dangerous Duo
By Mitchell Clark, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential
It really is the perfect environment for higher oil prices, which is both good and bad for the U.S. economy. Higher oil prices reflect a better economic outlook, as speculators bet on better gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the U.S. market. This translates right into the stock market. But, as we all know, higher oil prices also mean higher gasoline prices…and this is inflationary and cuts into consumers’ incomes.
There is a slight premium in oil prices today related to tensions with Iran. It’s not a big premium, but my best guess is that it might be around $5.00 a barrel. The stock market certainly isn’t worried about higher oil prices right now; equities have too much support from the Federal Reserve to be concerned. Stock market investors are buying because of unprecedented monetary stability and the hope for better corporate visibility. Oil prices are going up because of demand and supply, coupled with some speculative fervor.
The big news in the stock market continues to be with large-caps, especially within the technology sector. As a group, I think technology is a little ahead of itself. Things just aren’t that rosy yet. But, with stock market valuations still very fair, positive investor sentiment is behind the big push. Institutional investors (like individuals) don’t have much choice out there in the investment landscape. Bonds and cash don’t pay anything and the real estate market is a bigger gamble than dividend payments.
Chatter in the investment world is toying with the possibility of oil prices heading to around $125.00 a barrel in the not-too-distant future. (See Why Oil Prices, Gold … Read More
Our Annual Forecast: How Much
Home Prices Will Fall This Year
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
For the past four years I’ve been singing the same tune…
The U.S. economy cannot recover unless the U.S. housing market recovers. As a past “real estate man,” (in my life), I’ve never seen an economic recovery unaccompanied by a real estate market recovery.
There was a lot of speculation going into 2011 that it would be a year for the U.S. housing market to find a bottom. Well, the U.S. housing market hit a “bottom” last year, but not one to build upon.
U.S. new home sales fell 2.2% in December, which closed out 2011 with 302,000 new homes during the year, down from 323,000 new home sales in 2010 (Source: U.S. Commerce Department). In terms of number of units sold, this makes 2011 the worst year on record for new home sales—since 1963. So much for a U.S. housing market recovery.
Even though mortgages are at historically low interest rates, the low rates are not translating into new home sales. Sure, fear of further price declines in the U.S. housing market is discouraging people from buying new homes and directing consumers to rent instead, which I’ve been talking about.
And although fear of further home price declines may play a role, I’m more inclined to believe that the stagnant jobs market and weak economy are resulting in the greatest fear: uncertainty. This is what is really driving more people to rent homes instead of buying homes.
There are those still forecasting a rebound in 2012 for the U.S. housing market, but as I’ve been talking about in PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL, government estimates for foreclosures are still high at … Read More
Stock Market Reality: Good Corporate Earnings Just Aren’t Enough
By Mitchell Clark, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential
One thing really bothers me about the trading action in the stock market so far this year. While there is positive anticipation regarding corporate earnings, the stock market seems to be selling off on positive, non-corporate news and this is worrisome. Investor sentiment has improved from the fourth quarter last year, but it’s still not strong enough to foster any sustainable upward price trend at this time. Companies are forecasting good corporate earnings, but the marketplace just isn’t interested. “Fragile” is the word that I think best describes the state of the stock market right now.
Last year, corporate earnings were very good, especially considering the minimal GDP growth experienced in the U.S. economy. But the marketplace was more focused on the uncertainty created by Europe’s sovereign debt problems. Weak investor sentiment usurped the reality of good corporate earnings and strengthening balance sheets. This is why I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the stock market performed similarly to last year—a decent start, followed by consolidation, and then correction. Corporate earnings will be solid in 2012, but no one wants to buy them.
Individual investor participation in equities has been declining for years. This is no surprise considering the stock market hasn’t appreciated for over a decade. The hottest asset class in the last 10 years was mostly real estate, and then its collapse was met by significant price strength in commodities. It’s as if the general marketplace ignored corporate earnings and, accordingly, the stock market did nothing. (See How Stocks Are Reflecting the Structural Excesses of the World.)
I’ve been a student of the equity market my … Read More
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