As the Bell Tolls
Thursday, August 23rd, 2007
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE/TOL), the largest U.S. builder of new luxury homes, reported yesterday that its third quarter profit had fallen by 85%. The total loss for the biggest U.S. homebuilders in the last quarter surpassed $2.0 billion.
I was very interested to hear what CEO Robert Toll said yesterday about the housing market because it was simple, clear talk… much of which with I agree.
Here’s what Toll said:
– The tightening credit market (thanks to the subprime problems) is reducing the number of potential home buyers.
– A glut of resale home and new home inventory is acting to reduce demand for new home construction.
– Because of all the bad news surrounding the housing market, any potential buyers are taking the “let’s see what happens” attitude, waiting for lower prices ahead.
To Toll’s comments, I like to add: 179,599 homeowners received notices of default in July from the mortgage companies — a huge 93% increase from July 2006.
All indications are that the poor housing market in the United States is snowballing to the bad side.
I personally expect the next couple of years to be terrible for U.S. housing sales, foreclosures and the construction market. These events will dampen the U.S. economic picture significantly in the months ahead, leading to the recession I am predicting for the U.S. economy later this year, early 2008.
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter




