Fear and Opportunity in this Stock Market
Wednesday, July 16th, 2008
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
Lots of action happening in the stock market this week, and plenty of opportunities for investors willing to go against the popular trend:
– On average, U.S. bank stocks are down about 60% this year. The SEC came out yesterday and said it wants to stop naked short selling in an effort to curb “fear” manipulation of stocks like the brokerage houses Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. There are some very good quality banks out there that have seen their stock prices fall with the general banking sector.
– Oil prices fell more than $6.00 yesterday. While the popular media was quick to blame the slowing U.S. economy, the reality is that, after such a run-up, profit taking was due. Could the top be in for oil prices? While the majority of analysts are telling their clients that oil prices will go higher, the price chart of crude today looks like a top is in place. It may be temporary, but a top is in.
– The automakers are cutting jobs and the production of gas guzzlers. The deals on cars are getting better and better. And so are the losses piling up at Ford Motor Company (NYSE/F) and General Electric Company (NYSE/GE). Of course, the big focus now, and what is on the minds of consumers, is energy-efficient vehicles.
– Gold bullion is inching closer and closer to the magic $1,000 per ounce level, but gold stocks are falling in price. It’s almost as if the gold stocks don’t believe the rally in gold bullion is for real.
– The carnage in the U.S. housing market continues. With the bank stocks down so much in price, lending practices are being tightened. It is getting more difficult for even qualified buyers to get financing. After a rally in the beginning of this year, the Dow Jones U.S. Construction Index is melting away.
What does this all mean for investors? Here are the two most important points from my view:
Firstly, while everyone, including the Fed, is talking about inflation rising, I’m concerned about deflation. Stock prices are falling, car prices are coming down, house prices are falling and now even crude oil prices may have topped out. I wouldn’t be surprised if all this “fear” in the stock market is about deflation. I have been writing about my concern about deflation since 2005 when the housing market topped out.
Secondly, the stock market is becoming severely oversold. In particular, some quality bank stocks have been overly punished by investors and traders. Yes, I’m a big believer in following the trend, but no trend goes in a straight line. I believe that the market is due for a good rally from its currently oversold condition.
Next Post: Thievery Highlights Potential MoneymakerPrevious Post: This Jewel of a Stock Bucking the Trend
Tags: bank stocks, gold, gold stocks, stock market, U.S. housing market
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter



