All Signs Are Saying “Wait”
Thursday, September 18th, 2008
By George Leong, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential
The financial sector is in turmoil, if not chaos, given the current dealings at Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. (NYSE/LEH). Now we hear that the government will loan ailing American International Group, Inc. (NYSE/AIG) $85.0 billion and take an 80% stake in AIG. As an investor, while the investment is questionable, the government really has no choice. We believe that it is only a temporary band-aid solution for a much deeper-rooted problem. The reality is that the government will have problems in continuing to help ailing financial companies, although it will probably need to in order to prevent a financial market meltdown, which is a real threat.
The housing market also remains in crisis, as evidenced by a decline in housing construction to a 17-year low, which in turn confirms the market’s nervousness regarding the housing sector and declining property wealth. With many homeowners now carrying mortgages that are greater than the market value of their homes, we are seeing record foreclosures continuing in the United States. At the end of the day, this cannot be good, as it will impact consumer confidence and spending, which will impact GDP growth.
The DOW retested its low of 2008 in trading on Tuesday, which we view as bearish. Failure to win any buying support could drive stocks lower in the upcoming weeks. The strength of the buying commitment will become more obvious as stocks edge lower.
My strategy is to wait out the current turmoil and watch for things to improve in the financial sector. The inherent market risk remains high and makes investments vulnerable to higher downside risk. We want to see some stability to surface before entering new positions, because of the downside risk.
Next Post: This Agricultural Stock FlourishingPrevious Post: The Fed to the Rescue of Investors & Consumers, Take Three
Tags: GDP growth, housing market, real estate
Tweet
Sign Up for PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL and
receive a FREE copy of our exclusive report:
"A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY FOR STOCK MARKET INVESTORS"
We respect your privacy and
will never share your e-mail address.
George is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial, and has been involved in analyzing the stock markets for two decades where he employs both fundamental and technical analysis. His overall market timing and trading knowledge is extensive in the areas of small-cap research and option trading. George is the editor of several of Lombardi’s popular financial newsletters, including The China Letter, Special Situations, and Obscene Profits, among others. His trading advice on stocks and options is also found on his daily trading site, Daily Profits. He has written technical and fundamental columns for numerous stock market news web sites, and he is the author of Quick Wealth Options Strategy and Mastering 7 Proven Options Strategies. Prior to starting with Lombardi Financial, George was employed as a financial analyst with Globe Information Services.



