Don’t Dive into Financial Stocks Yet
Wednesday, August 27th, 2008
By George Leong, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential
On Monday, Credit Suisse Group (NYSE/CS) cut its price target on insurance and financial services company American International Group, Inc. (NYSE/AIG) to $22.00 from $30.00, based on an expected major loss in the third quarter versus the previous estimate of profits. The housing market remains in turmoil after a 13.2% year-over-year decline in existing home sales. The soft data is worrisome, because it could lead to lower consumer spending, as homeowners face a continued decline in personal home value and assets. This will also impact mortgage and financial companies.
A few weeks back at a speech in a financial conference in Singapore, former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff said that further global financial weakness would surface. He predicted that a large U.S. bank would collapse sometime in the next several months. “The U.S. is not out of the woods. I think the financial crisis is at the halfway point, perhaps. I would even go further to say the worst is to come,” commented Rogoff. His comments, while only an opinion, should be viewed seriously.
We continue to see bearish sentiment and higher risk in the financial sector, which I have been suggesting to avoid over the past months. The reality is that the housing market remains in crisis and the impact on the subprime mortgage and credit markets will continue. Yes, there have been major write-downs of debt relating to credit issues, but I no not believe it is over as of yet.
Financial stocks are currently a dividend play, but be warned that there remains downside financial risk in holding on to financial stocks with exposure to the housing market. And, while dividend yields currently appear to be quite attractive based on the payout, I would be hesitant to accumulate financial stocks given the existing turmoil and uncertainties of further breakdowns on banks.
The reality is that yields have moved significantly higher, because stock prices have declined. In my view, I do not believe this is a valid reason to look seriously at financial stocks. I would wait for clearer signs of strengthening in the mortgage and housing markets before diving in.
Next Post: A Good Time to Be a Buyer in this Equity MarketPrevious Post: Powerhouse Stock Going Strong
Tags: U.S. banks
Tweet
Sign Up for PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL and
receive a FREE copy of our exclusive report:
"A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY FOR STOCK MARKET INVESTORS"
We respect your privacy and
will never share your e-mail address.
George is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial, and has been involved in analyzing the stock markets for two decades where he employs both fundamental and technical analysis. His overall market timing and trading knowledge is extensive in the areas of small-cap research and option trading. George is the editor of several of Lombardi’s popular financial newsletters, including The China Letter, Special Situations, and Obscene Profits, among others. His trading advice on stocks and options is also found on his daily trading site, Daily Profits. He has written technical and fundamental columns for numerous stock market news web sites, and he is the author of Quick Wealth Options Strategy and Mastering 7 Proven Options Strategies. Prior to starting with Lombardi Financial, George was employed as a financial analyst with Globe Information Services.




