How the Tune Changes
Wednesday, December 13th, 2006
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
What every financial market follower expected to happen yesterday happened: The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged again.
The big news, though, was the Fed’s change in opinion on the housing market. Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee, the people that set interest rates in the U.S. led by Chairman Ben Bernanke, called the cooling of the housing market “substantial.”
Early in 2006, the Fed was downplaying the role a correction in the housing market would have on the economy. Even past Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was quoted as saying that the worst for housing was over. My, how the Fed has changed its tune!
I’ve been writing for months on how analysts, economists, and the Fed have underestimated the effects of the housing price correction on the economy. Now, they’re finally starting to get it. Maybe it’s because I used to be a real estate man, and I know how long changes in the housing market take to filter through the economic system. Maybe it’s because I know how inexperienced many of our policy makers and analysts are today. After all, isn’t the Fed still obsessed with inflation when deflation could be on the horizon?
As the CEO of the huge Countrywide Financial said back in August of this year, “I’ve never seen a soft landing (in real estate) in 53 years.”
As Ken Heebner, who manages the $1.2-billion CGM Realty Fund said this summer to the Wall Street Journal, “A significant decline in prices is coming. A huge buildup of inventory is taking place, and then we’re going to see a major problem in hot markets like California, Arizona, Florida and up the East Coast. These markets could fall 50% from their peaks.”
The price correction in the housing market is far from over. So is the pain that both consumers and the economy will experience because of it.
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter



