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Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 24, 2012

How Much Will Your House Be Worth in 2007?

Wednesday, December 20th, 2006
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential

Your house will be worth less in 2007 than it was in 2006 or 2005, that’s my prediction for the housing market over the next 12 months: Softer demand, softer prices.

While it may not affect you, the jeopardy to the economy is the large number of 2005 house buyers who bought their homes with 10% or less of the purchase price as a down payment. A 10% swing to the downside in prices, as many markets have already experienced, and the buyer’s down payment is gone. Not a good feeling. And when consumers don’t feel good, they are cautious about spending.

The crashing prices of housing stocks months ago, something I wrote about many times, foretold the story in the housing market. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average has moved to record new highs, the index with all the big U.S. home building stocks, the Dow Jones Home Construction index, is trading at the same level it traded back in the first quarter of 2004!

Right now the Dow Jones Home Construction index, I believe, is starting the left side formation of another head and shoulders pattern that will eventually lead the index down to levels last seen in early 2003–about half what the index is trading at today.

Yes, the stock market is big. And yes the real estate market is big. When either of these forms of investment and value declines, consumer sentiment is damaged, consumers stop spending and the economy gets hurt. While U.S. home ownership is now at a record high of about 40%, not everyone owns stocks! So when house prices decline, the negative effect on consumer spending is magnified to a greater degree than when the stock market declined in value.

Construction is a big part of the economy. When houses aren’t being built, when the construction job market goes from tight to soft, the ramifications to the economy are huge.

I’ve been a real estate man for half my life. I’ve seen how soft property markets can wreak havoc on town and cities. Unfortunately, many of today’s young analysts and economists have never bought an investment property… nor have they been around to see what a housing recession is like.

Buying houses (be it a primary residence, second, or third vacation home), has never been so easy. The Fed and the banks made it so easy for home buyers to qualify for loans and mortgages with so little money down. Now we need to pay the price for all that euphoria.

My analysis: 2006 will not be the bottom of the housing market, as 2007 will place an even greater strain on housing prices and the economy.

 

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Profit Confidential AuthorMichael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter

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