Interest Rate Jitters
Thursday, June 7th, 2007
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
The bond market moving up could be a bad thing or a good thing depending on what side of the fence you sit on.
Rising bond prices mean interest rates are headed higher. That’s bad news for stock investors (no wonder the Dow Jones Industrials lost 200 points in the past two trading days).
Higher bond prices are good for non-stock investors because most fixed income securities yield more as bond prices rise. For example, a six-month U.S. T-bill now pays 4.95%. Why invest in big-cap stocks to maybe make 5% a year when you can get almost 5% guaranteed by the U.S. Government?
When bond prices rise, stocks and the economy get hurt. A standard 30-year mortgage today in the U.S. costs credit worthy homeowners 6.12%. Only six months ago that same mortgage had an interest rate of 5.58%. This cannot be good for the weak U.S. housing market.
The big news the past couple of days has been the rising yield of the bellwether U.S. 10-year bond. This morning, as I write this column, the yield on this popular bond hit 5.4% — the highest level since August 2006.
As I wrote yesterday, interest rates around the world are rising. There’s now fear in the economic marketplace that, instead of cutting interest rates, the U.S. Fed may actually raise them. Hence, bond yields are rising, stocks are falling.
The U.S. Fed meets on June 28, 2007 to make its next interest rate decision. Most economists are expecting the Fed to stand firm (not change interest rates) at that meeting. I say that after leaving the Fed’s key interest rate unchanged for the past seven meetings, on June 28, 2007, the Fed will actually signal higher rates ahead.
Next Post: A Key Consumer Group Could Win Big for Stock HoldersPrevious Post: What Current Short-Term Yields Mean for Canadian Investors
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter



