Slowdown in the U.S. Officially Underway
Wednesday, July 11th, 2007
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
I’ve been predicting the carnage in the U.S. housing market would eventually result in consumer spending tightening, putting pressure on consumer stocks. And that’s exactly what’s starting to happen with the big U.S. retailers.
Home Depot and Sears, two giant American realtors, have both come out over the past couple of days reducing their 2007 earnings projections. Home Depot is expecting earnings to fall 15% this year, as the company cited the poor housing market for a drop in product demand. As for Sears, it is estimated the company’s earnings dropped at least 20% in 2007.
Home Depot and Sears are only two casualties… I expect to see plenty more U.S. consumer stocks start to hurt because of the weak housing market. Yesterday, the Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index broke down to a new four-year low — an event I interpret as extremely negative for the U.S. housing market.
As housing prices continue to fall in the U.S. and rates for mortgages continue to rise, consumers simply have less money to spend on secondary items. Why renovate your house if it is falling in value? Why buy new or more furniture for your home when that money could go to paying higher monthly mortgage costs (especially for ARM-holders who are seeing their loan costs reset much higher).
The slowdown in the U.S. is officially underway, courtesy of the hard landing in the American housing market. Expect more consumer stocks to come under pressure. And don’t rule out that possible recession most economists have forgotten. The U.S. could be in a full-blown recession by the end of 2007 or early 2008.
NEWSFLASH — Canadian interest rates rose yesterday one- quarter point to a six-year high with the Bank of Canada, stating more increases could be ahead. The United States is now officially the only country in the G7 that has yet to raise interest rates in 2007.
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Tags: dow jones, housing prices, interest rates, U.S. housing market
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter




