The Fed to the Rescue of Investors & Consumers, Take Three
Wednesday, September 17th, 2008
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
First the Bear Sterns bailout, then the bailout of mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae…and last night the announcement that the Fed was stepping up to the plate again and bailing out the world’s largest insurer, American International Group, Inc. (AIG; NYSE/AIG).
Why bail out AIG and not Lehman Brothers? In my opinion, simply because AIG poses a bigger risk to the already damaged economy. AIG provided insurance on $60.0 billion in securities related to subprime mortgages and over $400 billion on other fixed-income investments. If AIG went down, the instability to the financial markets and losses to individual investors and the end- consumers would have been too onerous to overcome.
For a loan of $85.0 billion, the U.S. government ends up owning 80% of AIG. In two or three years from now, most of AIG’s assets will be sold to pay off its debts…eventually liquidated. Goodbye to another big American financial institution.
So, where do we go from here? After all, everyone I talk to tells me their retirement savings are down substantially.
Firstly, I’d like to say how impressed I am with the actions of the Secretary of the Treasury and with the Federal Reserve. They have been over-accommodating…helping clean up a mess that homebuilders, mortgage companies and Wall Street helped create because of Greenspan’s ridiculously reduced interest-rate policy.
(Please go back to my PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL articles of 2000- 2001, where I was so opposed to Greenspan bringing interest rates artificially low. My comments back then were that Greenspan should just let the stock market face a bear market [and let us get over it] instead of interfering with the “economic” nature of boom and bust. Look at the price we are paying now because interest rates were allowed to fall so low in 2004!)
I’m still amazed by the resiliency of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in that it fails to fall flat on its face. As the stock market (measured by the Dow) gets close to its July 2008 lows, it rallies…up 141 points yesterday.
The stock market is a leading indicator; therefore, I am watching both daily volume and direction very closely. Most interestingly — and something I feel not many are watching, in spite of all the problems in the financial markets and the economy — the Dow Jones Home Construction Index is up an astonishing 38% since mid-July 2008. Could the bottom of the housing market be behind us? Stay tuned.
Next Post: All Signs Are Saying “Wait”Previous Post: Don’t Enter Financial Stocks Just Yet
Tags: bear markets, interest rates, stock market
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter



