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Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 24, 2012

Where the Correction is Really Happening

Wednesday, May 17th, 2006
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential

Monday, oil and the precious metals were hit hard. While the popular media stories reported that too many speculators had entered the market for metals, or that the rise in prices was finally over, this old market timer can only delivery the news I believe.

Gold, silver, copper, platinum, oil. they were all due for a correction. Nothing goes up or down in straight lines. Finally, a correction arrived. It’s a buying opportunity for me. Yes, let the speculators get out. Let the patient money buy more. Last Friday, gold was up 192% from its 2001 price low. Now, gold’s up only 180% since 2001. So what? I’m happy to give back twelve points to put a healthy correction in the market. The speculators may have bailed yesterday, but they will be back on the next gold rally. That, you can count on.

For me, Monday and Tuesday news wasn’t about a correction in the oil and precious metals market. Quietly, while everyone was focused on resources and metals, Monday the Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index plunged 2%. Yesterday, this index fell another 1.4% to a new 52-week low. In fact, this index of the largest U.S. home builders is now at its lowest level since December 2004. Funny, I didn’t read anything about this in today’s papers!

If the metals and resource stocks were falling while the home building stocks were rising, I’d be worried. But, with all three falling in tandem, and the U.S. dollar rising only marginally against the euro, I’m comfortable calling the recent action in oil and precious metals a price correction.

As for the real estate market in the U.S., the action of the Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction indicates tough times ahead. Construction has been the backbone of the U.S. economy for years. If the housing market starts retracting, the economic repercussions in the U.S. will be huge. Just how tough the economy will get because of the U.S. housing market depends on how much lower the big home builder stocks fall. I’ll keep you posted.

NEWSFLASH–The U.S. Commerce Department reports April housing starts fell to a 17-month low. The correction is happening in the U.S. housing market. My feeling is that the housing market in the U.S. is beginning to unravel.

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Profit Confidential AuthorMichael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter

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