Where The Money Will Flow Now
Wednesday, February 22nd, 2006
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
Many of my columns as of late have been about rising U.S. interest rates and why I expect rates to rise further. Today, I’d like to briefly talk about the impact higher U.S. interest rates will have on different forms of investment, specifically stocks and real estate.
Money competes for only the highest and safest return. When interest rates fell so low in 2004, few investors were interested in buying T-bills because cap rates on investment real estate and dividend returns from utility stocks were simply more attractive. And both went up–real estate and utility stocks.
The landscape has changed drastically since mid-2004. The Federal Reserve has aggressively pushed up interest rates. I would not be surprised to see a Federal Funds Rate of five percent soon, up 400% since mid-2004.
As rates have risen, so have the yields on safe investments like U.S. Treasuries. A 90-day U.S. Treasury now pays 4.55 percent while a six month Treasury pays 4.69 percent– these are investments guaranteed by the U.S. government.
With rates expected to rise, will money be invested in investment real estate with unsecured cap rates of only six to seven percent? Not anymore. The alternative guaranteed T-Bills are too competitive. Will money go to the utility stocks? No, because the higher interest rates move, the lower utility stock prices will fall.
Again, capital always flows to the highest and safest returns. Right now, with interest rates moving higher, money has investment alternatives it didn’t have as recently as just a few months ago. I believe it will be difficult for big-cap mutual fund managers and big-cap stock portfolio managers to deliver returns this year in excess of what T-bills are paying. I also believe cap rates for investment real estate have fallen too low to be attractive anymore to investors. I’d think about selling both if I owned them.
NEWSFLASH-The estimate for first quarter U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) continues to rise. Some analysts are actually predicting U.S. growth in the first quarter of 2006 (as measured by the GDP) to be around six percent. Growth above four percent will give new Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke the ammunition he needs to continue raising interest rates. Expect higher interest rates ahead.
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Tags: GDP, interest rates, U.S. Treasuries
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter




