Recession

An economic slowdown is a contraction in the economy. This can be viewed by using several indicators, including lower gross domestic product (GDP), higher unemployment, lower industrial production, lower business investment, a decline in retail sales, and a decrease in corporate profits. Not all of these factors need to be declining for an economic slowdown, but these are some of the main indications to watch for regarding the overall health of the economy. Some consider a recession to be occurring when there are two consecutive down quarters of gross domestic product (GDP). According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession is “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real money, employment, industrial production and wholesale retail sales.”


Stock Market Crash: China Could Spark an Economic Collapse in 2016

By Friday, August 21, 2015
China Stock Market CrashAfter a colossal stock market crash in June, many analysts are worrying that China is on the brink of an economic collapse. Panic is setting in as the country experiences a dramatic slowdown in exports and growth. A recession in China would precipitate crises across the world, drawing an eerie parallel to the U.S.-led contraction during.

U.S. Economy: Why Recession’s Knocking

By Friday, August 21, 2015
RecessionWhat used to be a leading indicator, the stock market has now become a lagging indicator. For months (in these pages), I have written about how sick the U.S. economy has become. Stock market investors are waking up to the reality that world economic growth is either non-existent or even contracting—albeit too late. The Dow Jones Industrial.

Recession Ahead for U.S. Economy; These Two Indicators Say Yes

By Wednesday, June 17, 2015
recessionSome very interesting news (or should I say warnings) to share with my readers today… If you’ve been reading Profit Confidential for some time now, you know I am predicting a recession in late 2015 or early 2016. A recession is technically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP). We are almost.

Truth Behind So-Called “Recovery” in the U.S. Economy

By Monday, June 15, 2015
U.S. Economy SufferingLast Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in the month of May, 280,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy. The unemployment rate was unchanged and stood at 5.5%. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 5, 2015.) If you just look at the current unemployment rate, it’s a massive improvement from the 10% unemployment.

U.S. GDP Contracts in 1Q15; Economy Halfway to a Recession This Year

By Monday, June 1, 2015
U.S. GDPEarlier this year in Profit Confidential, I wrote that I wouldn’t be surprised to see the U.S. economy enter a recession in 2015. I got a lot of flak here from my fellow economists…even some of my customers thought that prediction was too far off. But, lo and behold; we are already halfway there. On Friday, according to the revised.
Aug. 31, 2015
Trailing 12-month EPS for Dow Jones companies (Most Recent Quarter) $1014.15
Trailing 12-month Price/earnings multiple (Most Recent Quarter)

17.44

Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend Yield 2.71%
10-year U.S. Treasury Yield 2.14%

Immediate term outlook:
The bear market rally in stocks that started in March 2009, extended because of unprecedented central bank money printing, is coming to an end. Gold bullion is up $1,000 an ounce since we first recommended it in 2002 and we are still bullish on the physical metal.

Short-to-medium term outlook:
World economies are entering their slowest growth period since 2009. The Chinese economy grew last year at its slowest pace in 24 years. Japan is in recession. The eurozone is in depression. With almost half the S&P 500 companies deriving revenue outside the U.S., slower world economic growth will negatively impact revenue and earnings growth of American companies. Domestically, America’s gross domestic product grew by only a meager 2.3% in the second quarter, which will negatively impact an already overpriced equity market.

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From: Michael Lombardi, MBA
Subject: Golden Opportunity for Stock Market Investors

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