Lombardi: Expert Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986
Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 24, 2012

Keep Watch For Near-Term Drop

Wednesday, September 20th, 2006
By George Leong, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential

Markets are pausing at this time as the trading continues to be sideways despite a recent mini rally. The DOW has declined in four of the last five sessions while the NASDAQ is mixed after failing to take a shot at resistance at 2200.

 The daily new high-new low ratio (NHNL) on the NYSE is showing some current strengthening as the near-term trend appears to be edging higher with seven of the last nine sessions at above the bullish 70% level, albeit the last two were below 70%.

 On the tech front, it is a vastly different story as the NHNL ratio for the NASDAQ continues to be weak. Sentiment on the NASDAQ is weaker than the NYSE. We still have yet to see a 70% plus reading since July 3. The last six sessions have been below 50%. And until we see sustained readings at above 70%, I expect the market action to remain apprehensive.

 Breadth, as indicated by the advance-decline line (A/D), has strengthened in the past two weeks but we saw some weakness emerge last week. The five-day moving average for the NASDAQ fell below 1.0 to 0.89, down from the 10-day and 30-day moving averages of 1.34 and 1.21, respectively. But overall, we are seeing some improvement in the breadth.

 Now let’s take a look at the market volatility to give us additional insight on the market. The CBOE NASDAQ Volatility Index or VXN–a barometer of near-term market volatility based on NASDAQ 100 index option prices–is generally viewed as a contrarian indicator. A high VXN indicates maximum fear and a possible market bottom. A low VXN indicates reduced apprehension and a possible market top. The chart indicates uncertainty.

 The 5-day VXN to August 25 was steady at 19.32. It is above the 200-day MA of 17.66 but below the 50-day MA of 20.83. The recent readings suggest uncertainty.

 The CBOE Volatility Index or VIX is a barometer of near-term market volatility based on the S&P 500 index option prices. The 5-day VIX fell to 12.30, below the 30-day and 200-day moving averages of 14.41 and 13.19, respectively. Watch for a potential near-term top if VIX continues to decline.

Next Post:
Previous Post:

Tags: , ,










Sign Up for PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL and
receive a FREE copy of our exclusive report:
"A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY FOR STOCK MARKET INVESTORS"

Enter e-mail:

We respect your privacy and
will never share your e-mail address.



Profit Confidential AuthorGeorge is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial, and has been involved in analyzing the stock markets for two decades where he employs both fundamental and technical analysis. His overall market timing and trading knowledge is extensive in the areas of small-cap research and option trading. George is the editor of several of Lombardi’s popular financial newsletters, including The China Letter, Special Situations, and Obscene Profits, among others. His trading advice on stocks and options is also found on his daily trading site, Daily Profits. He has written technical and fundamental columns for numerous stock market news web sites, and he is the author of Quick Wealth Options Strategy and Mastering 7 Proven Options Strategies. Prior to starting with Lombardi Financial, George was employed as a financial analyst with Globe Information Services.

Daily Profits


Enter your e-mail address to subscribe to
Profit Confidential — IT'S FREE!
Enter e-mail:
ALSO RECEIVE A FREE COPY of our exclusive report:
"A Golden Opportunity for Stock Market Investors"

McAfee SECURE sites help keep you safe from identity theft, credit card fraud, spyware, spam, viruses and online scams

 

Corporate
About Us
Privacy
Disclaimer
Contact Us
White List
Sitemap

Profit Confidential
Predictions
Gurus
Archives
FREE Sign-Up
RSS
Twitter
Facebook

Editors
Michael Lombardi
George Leong
Mitchell Clark
Tony Jasansky
Robert Appel
Wendy Potter
Sasha Cekerevac

Topics
Gold Stocks
Stock Market
Bear Market
Bull Market
US Dollar
Euro
Interest Rates

Expertise
U.S.Deficit
Real Estate Market
Debt Crisis
Chinese Economy
Economic Analysis

Guidance
Investment Guidance
Retirement Plan
Chinese Stocks
The Best Stocks
Gold Stock Picking
Real Estate Investment

Resources
Gold
Precious Metals
Real Estate News
Gold Investments
Investing in Real Estate


Profit Confidential Disclaimer