Lombardi: Expert Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986
Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 24, 2012

Getting Ready for First-quarter Earnings

Monday, April 13th, 2009
By George Leong, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential

by George Leong, B. Comm.

Investors are getting ready for the flow of first-quarter earnings this week. The importance will not be so much the earnings, but what the companies say as far as the guidance going forward in the rest of 2009 and into 2010. Trading was relatively subdued last week, as investors did not want to take a position into the weekend with earnings coming.

Since closing above 8,000 on April 3 for the first time since early February, the DOW has retrenched below 8,000 and is struggling to hold at the support levels.

First-quarter earnings and the fear that the guidance will be weak are driving some to take profits. I would look for some buying support on dips. The first-quarter earnings and guidance will help drive trading over the next month. Companies have a better idea on demand as they are in the marketplace. We fully expect earnings will be weak for at least several more quarters and, depending on the economy, could then begin to improve. Despite the four-week rally, there are some fresh concerns regarding whether this is simply a bear market rally.

Investor sentiment has improved and there are some encouraging technical and chart signs, but we are not at the point of calling a bottom. Stocks could retrench if the recession lengthens. The first-quarter earnings season began unofficially last Tuesday after Alcoa Inc. (NYSE/AA) reported a massive loss after the bell. The decline in demand for metals is not unexpected given the global recession and Alcoa indicated more uncertainty going forward.

On the commodities front, the June gold broke below $900.00 to the $880.00 level, as capital flowed back into stocks. We continue to like gold, but you need to watch to see if support levels hold. The near-term technical picture is bearish with weak Relative Strength. Gold is oversold, so watch for some support at the 200-day moving average of $870.10. A strong break below would drive additional selling.

The CRB Spot Index, a measure of 22 commodities, appears to have bottomed at 200 and is currently attempting to break 230. Yet you need to watch, since there may be a bearish double top in the works. The CRB is indicating that the economy may be setting up for a turnaround, as the basket of key commodities is showing some signs of turning up. The peak for the CRB was June 1, 2008, when the index traded at 467.60 prior to the subsequent slide. The low was at the 180 level in late 2001.

In my view, the key will be how markets trade in the upcoming weeks. The reality is that there is plenty of cash on the sidelines waiting for some early signs of a market turn. Once that happens, there will be a lot of money to be made. The key is that you want to make sure you have cash on hand to buy at some point in the future. Do not risk your capital chasing gains now, as it could be a false rally with more downside.

Next Post:
Previous Post:

Tags: , , ,










Sign Up for PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL and
receive a FREE copy of our exclusive report:
"A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY FOR STOCK MARKET INVESTORS"

Enter e-mail:

We respect your privacy and
will never share your e-mail address.



Profit Confidential AuthorGeorge is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial, and has been involved in analyzing the stock markets for two decades where he employs both fundamental and technical analysis. His overall market timing and trading knowledge is extensive in the areas of small-cap research and option trading. George is the editor of several of Lombardi’s popular financial newsletters, including The China Letter, Special Situations, and Obscene Profits, among others. His trading advice on stocks and options is also found on his daily trading site, Daily Profits. He has written technical and fundamental columns for numerous stock market news web sites, and he is the author of Quick Wealth Options Strategy and Mastering 7 Proven Options Strategies. Prior to starting with Lombardi Financial, George was employed as a financial analyst with Globe Information Services.

Daily Profits


Enter your e-mail address to subscribe to
Profit Confidential — IT'S FREE!
Enter e-mail:
ALSO RECEIVE A FREE COPY of our exclusive report:
"A Golden Opportunity for Stock Market Investors"

McAfee SECURE sites help keep you safe from identity theft, credit card fraud, spyware, spam, viruses and online scams

 

Corporate
About Us
Privacy
Disclaimer
Contact Us
White List
Sitemap

Profit Confidential
Predictions
Gurus
Archives
FREE Sign-Up
RSS
Twitter
Facebook

Editors
Michael Lombardi
George Leong
Mitchell Clark
Tony Jasansky
Robert Appel
Wendy Potter
Sasha Cekerevac

Topics
Gold Stocks
Stock Market
Bear Market
Bull Market
US Dollar
Euro
Interest Rates

Expertise
U.S.Deficit
Real Estate Market
Debt Crisis
Chinese Economy
Economic Analysis

Guidance
Investment Guidance
Retirement Plan
Chinese Stocks
The Best Stocks
Gold Stock Picking
Real Estate Investment

Resources
Gold
Precious Metals
Real Estate News
Gold Investments
Investing in Real Estate


Profit Confidential Disclaimer