Why You Might Want to Look at Buying the Miners
Friday, September 30th, 2011
By George Leong, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential
Metals are under selling pressure, but I feel that the selling has been overdone. Use the current weakness to buy, but be careful, as metals are extremely volatile at this time.
The reality is that the global climate continues to be favorable for metals given the U.S. deficit and the debt crisis in Europe (and the U.S.).
Yes, metals have been in correction mode, but I do not see this as fear. I smell opportunities, especially in the miners, which have lagged behind the gold and silver rally.
I like the smaller mining companies, especially those with a massive reserve of metals in the ground waiting to be developed.
The October Gold is hovering around the $1,600 level on oversold buying, but remains below its key 50-day moving average (MA) on weak Relative Strength. The golden cross on the chart remains, with the 50-day MA of $1,742 above the 200-day MA of $1,524.
Gold is extremely oversold. I feel that gold prices will hold and edge higher if the U.S. economy falters and another recession surfaces.
The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) exchange-traded fund (ETF) is worth a look. For added risk and potential gains, take a look at the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X Shrs (NASDAQ/NUGT)—an aggressive trade aimed at capitalizing on surges in gold at twice the normal rate.
The December Silver is around $30.00, but is facing selling. The next target is the 200-day MA at $36.05. The 50-day MA is at $39.95. The near-term view is bearish, but the chart is holding on to the bullish golden cross. With the selling, silver is extremely oversold.
While the downside risk is high, there are some opportunities. To play a bounce in silver, take a look at the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE/SLV).
If you want to play the small miners, there are hundreds of plays. I have listed several below that look interesting for the speculative trader.
Keegan Resources Inc. (AMEX/KGN, TSX/KGN) recently reported positive feasibility results.
In the mining area, Canada-based Taseko Mines Limited (AMEX/TGB) mines for copper and gold in Canada. The small-cap has a market-cap of $680 million and is profitable, with above-average price appreciation potential. The stock is interesting, as it is trading just above its 52-week low and well below its 52-week high of $7.23.
Take a look at small-cap Golden Star Resources Ltd. (AMEX/GSS). The gold company has operating mines in western Ghana and southwest Ghana, along with exploration properties in Ghana, Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso, Niger, Cote d’Ivoire, and Brazil. Trading at 8.05X its 2012 earnings per share, I like the valuation and potential for long-term gains.
In non-precious metals, take a look at Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. (NYSE/TC), a miner of molybdenum—a metal used for creating stainless steel and other applications, including the production of rare earth used in electronics.
My advice to you is to buy a mixture of exploration-stage gold miners and small to large gold producers. Under this scenario, you can play both the potential aggressive gains of exploration stocks and the steady returns of the large gold producers. Please note that the investments mentioned in this article are not specific recommendations, but are meant to serve as examples.