Stock Market
Lombardi Publishing was established in 1986 as an investment newsletter providing stock market analysis to its readers. Today, we publish 26 paid-for investment letters, most of which provide stock market direction and individual stock picking analysis.
In 2001, Michael Lombardi started his famous daily economic newsletter Profit Confidential. Written by Lombardi Financial editors who have been offering stock market guidance for years to Lombardi customers, Profit Confidential provides a macro-picture on where the stock market is headed, what sectors are hot, and which sectors to avoid.
Over the years, Michael’s financial commentary and the accuracy of his economic predictions have garnered him global attention, and the confidence of over one million investors in more than 140 countries.
Michael Lombardi has been widely recognized as predicting five major economic events over the past 10 years.
1) In 2002, he famously told readers to get into gold
2) Told them to get out of the housing market in 2006
3) Predicted the recession of late 2007
4) Warned readers to get out of stocks in the fall of 2007
5) Advised readers to get back into stocks in March 2009
In 2002, Michael’s Profit Confidential famously advised readers to buy gold-related investments when gold bullion traded under $300.00 an ounce. “I’ve been pushing gold bullion and gold shares for over a year now. Back in January 2002, I personally started buying gold shares.” (As published in Profit Confidential, December 13, 2002.)
In 2006, Profit Confidential “begged” its readers to get out of the housing market years before it plunged. Michael started warnings abut the coming U.S. housing crisis right at the peak of the boom. On August 2, 2006 Michael Lombardi predicted, “I’m getting very worried about the state of the U.S. housing market and its ramifications on the economy. The U.S. could be headed for its first annual decline in home prices on record, adjusted for inflation. And, I really believe this could be a catastrophe for the U.S. economy.”
Michael was also one of the first to predict the U.S. economy would be in a recession by late 2007. On March 22, 2007, he warned, “Over the past few weeks, I’ve written about subprime lenders and how their demise will hurt the U.S. housing market, the economy, and the stock market. There’s no escaping the carnage headed our way because the housing market and subprime business are falling apart. The worst of our problems, because of the easy money made available to borrowers, which fuelled the housing boom that peaked in 2005, has yet to arrive.”
At the same time Michael wrote this, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was quoted as saying, “The worst is over for the U.S. housing market, and there will be no economic spillover effects from the poor housing market.”
Michael Lombardi also warned his readers in advance of the crash in the stock market of 2008. On November 29, 2007, Michael Lombardi predicted, “The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the other major stock market indices finished yesterday with the best two-day showing since 2002. I’m looking at the market really of the past two days as a classic stock market bear trap. As the economy gets closer to contraction, 2008 will likely be a most challenging economic year for America.”
The Dow Jones peaked at 14,279 in October, 2007. A “sucker’s rally” developed in November 2007, which Michael quickly classified as a bear trap for his readers. One year later, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 8,726.
And, Profit Confidential turned bullish on stocks in March of 2009, and rode the bear market rally from a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 6,440 on March 9, 2009, to 12,876 on May 2, 2011, a gain of 99%.
But, Michael is not resting on his laurels from the past 10 years.
In 2013, Michael predicts the devaluation of the U.S. dollar that started in early 2009 will accelerate as the U.S. economy deteriorates, that gold prices will continue to rise, and that the euro is done. Michael also predicts that inflation will be a big, big problem for the U.S.; probably for the rest of the decade. Finally, Michael believes 2013 will be a poor year for stocks.
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. He also has ways investors can protect their holdings, and even make money off the weak economy.
Can the Electric Car Save the Global Economy?
By Mitchell Clark, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential
It’s a very interesting concept: I absolutely believe that energy innovation will help the U.S. economy tremendously over the coming years.
Under that vast umbrella of energy innovation, alternative energy has the potential to become a genuine economic engine that can revolutionize personal transportation and the economic landscape.
There is excitement surrounding automaker Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ/TSLA). This company just doubled on the stock market in a little over a month.
I haven’t driven any of Tesla’s vehicles, but the company’s new four-door sedan looks fantastic, and the quality of the paint job really stands out.
I definitely see more “Chevrolet Volts” around. According to General Motors Company (NYSE/GM), it delivered 5,550 Volts in the first quarter of 2013, up 3.2% comparatively. The company is likely employing new sales incentives.
Virtually every automaker is getting in on the electric vehicle action. Even Porsche has a new electric “supercar.” The company is bringing to market the “918 Spyder,” which has a 4.6 liter V8 engine and two electric motors. The two electric motors provide an additional 218 horsepower on top of the more than 500-horsepower V8. The car can operate on its batteries alone, but I suspect the range would be extremely short.
Trucks and SUVs are bread-and-butter for domestic automakers. But the migration to electric vehicle production (a loss leader right now) is all about range and economies of scale. A $40,000 compact Chevy sedan is a misnomer.
While insider ownership with a company like Tesla is high and its valuation is extreme, the company would be an attractive takeover candidate for a successful automaker. The illusion can become … Read More
Stock Advisor Sentiment Suggests Sell-Off Ahead
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
As the key stock indices continue to climb higher, optimism amongst investors and stock advisors rises to a dangerous level.
According to the Advisor Sentiment tracked by Investors Intelligence, an indicator I follow to gauge optimism in the stock market, the number of stock advisors who are bullish towards key stock indices is at its highest since April of 2011. (Source: Investors Intelligence, May 22, 2013.) To bring this into perspective, in April of 2011, the key stock indices like the S&P 500 started to decline, dropping nearly 20% through October of that year.
The stock market is becoming very overbought and very overpriced. It’s not a matter of “if” the market faces a major set-back, but “when.”
The U.S. economy continues to struggle and early indicators of economic slowdown are flashing warning signs. Consider the Business Outlook Survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, which provides an outlook for manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area. The survey indicates demand has been weak, with new orders and shipments declining and inventories building up. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, May 16, 2013.)
The index of current manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region registered at negative 5.3 in May compared to positive 1.3 in April. Any number below zero indicates conditions in the manufacturing sector are becoming poor.
This isn’t the only troubling statistic that shows the U.S. economy is headed towards an economic slowdown. Our economic growth is questionable; unemployment is still staggering; the majority of jobs created since the financial crisis have been in low-paying jobs, and a significant portion of the U.S. population is on food stamps…. Read More
Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing Making U.S. Economy Fundamentally Weak?
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
While testifying in front of the Joint Economic Committee in Washington regarding monetary policy and the economic outlook of the U.S. economy, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, said yesterday, “…the committee has said that it will continue its securities purchase until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability.” (Source: “The Economic Outlook,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, May 22, 2013.) In other words, the Federal Reserve has made it clear, once again: it will not stop quantitative easing until the unemployment rate comes down.
The Federal Reserve continues printing $85.0 billion a month in new money, using this newly created money to purchase long-term U.S. bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The Fed has already inflated its balance sheet to over $3.0 trillion, and by keeping the pace of quantitative easing the same, its balance sheet will reach $4.0 trillion very quickly.
I believe the longer the Federal Reserve continues with the quantitative easing, the bigger the eventual troubles will be.
First of all, quantitative easing and artificially low interest rates by the Federal Reserve have essentially forced investors to take higher risk elsewhere, as guaranteed yields have collapsed. The yield on 10-year U.S. bonds is less than two percent; meanwhile, tax-favored dividends from the rising Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks pay 2.35%.
It is very well documented in these pages how investors are rushing to get higher yields as the Federal Reserve stays the course. Investors are adding junk bonds to their portfolio; conservative investors, like the central banks, are buying stocks; and bond funds … Read More
How to Negotiate a Sea of Stock Market Data for Your Own Personal Gain
By Mitchell Clark, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential
In the online world of free investment parlance, you can always find an opinion out there that meets your view. That is, of course, the point.
Just as you can with statistics, if you dig hard enough, you can find the numbers to support any case.
But in the stock market, it’s very important to remember that the mindset of institutional investors is different from that of Main Street.
By “institutional investors,” I’m referring to any entity that is buy-side, with investing money being the main concern. The Wall Street investment banker mindset, the sell-side, is its own unique beast.
Institutional investors are paid to play. That’s their business. If a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) takes in money, it has to invest it. Contributors don’t pay fees to have money sit in cash.
The stock market is very much a marketplace that is fueled by the supply and demand of common shares and cash.
With greater demand (new inflows to institutional investors) and less supply (the amount of initial public offerings [IPOs], secondary offerings, and corporate share buybacks), prices go up.
That’s why everything in the stock market is only relative—share prices, earnings, earnings estimates, valuations, and views.
Is priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ/PCLN) worth $847.33 a share? Or should it be $694.06 a share, like it was on May 1? That’s a huge stock market gain, and the month isn’t even over yet. (See “BlackRock Takes in Billions For Equities: A Signal the Stock Market Is Near a Top?”)
The only thing institutional investors lament is a lack of new cash inflows.
Being in the business … Read More
Six Reasons Why I Remain Skeptical About the Housing Recovery
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
A healthy housing market is essential to economic growth in the U.S. economy. But despite what we are hearing from the media, the housing market rebound is facing major headwinds.
To start with, home prices in the U.S. housing market are nowhere close to their pre-crash levels. There are millions of homeowners in the U.S. economy whose homes are worth less than what they originally paid for them. From their peak in 2006, home prices in the U.S. housing market are still down roughly 30%. For millions of homeowners to break even on their home investment, home prices will have to go up by at least 40%.
We just learned housing starts plunged 16.5% in April from March. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, May 16, 2013.) This decline in new housing starts was one of the sharpest declines since mid-2011.
The chart below depicts housing starts from 2001 to today. Notice the recent sharp decline in housing starts.
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
Housing starts may not be a very exciting number to some, but I follow housing starts to gauge consumer spending. Think of it this way: when a family buys a new home they need to buy things that are needed in the household—new furniture, appliances, lawn mowers, and so on. It is this spending that ultimately results in economic growth for the U.S. economy.
Construction spending in the U.S. economy is also on the decline. It registered an annual rate of $893.6 billion in December of 2012, and by March 2012, construction spending fell to an annual rate of $856.7 billion—a decline of four percent. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank … Read More
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