With nine months behind us this year, today we look at how two popular forms of investment have done in 2014 and where I think they are headed for the remainder of the year.
Starting with stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed yesterday up 2.8% for the year. Given the risk of the stock market, 2.8% is no big gain. I wrote at the beginning of 2014 that the return on stocks would not be worth the risk this year. I was on the money. When we look at the broad market, the Russell 2000 Index is down 5.4% for the year.
Going forward, as you know as a reader of Profit Confidential, I see stocks as risky. Plain and simple, stocks are overpriced in an environment where the Federal Reserve is putting the brakes on paper money printing and is warning that interest rates are going higher.
On a typical day, I see the Dow Jones up 100 points; the next day, it’s down 100 points. This is happening in an environment where trading volume has collapsed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see October deliver us a nasty stock market crash.
Moving to gold (and this is very interesting), gold is flat for the year in U.S. dollars. But if we look at gold in Japanese yen, gold is up 4.6% for 2014. If we look at gold in Canadian dollars, bullion is up 4.6% as well this year. And if we measure gold in euros, we find gold bullion prices are up 10.4% in 2014.
What explains this?
Yesterday, the U.S. dollar hit another six-year high against the yen and a 22-month high against the euro. While the Federal Reserve gets ready to tighten monetary policy, other major central banks are doing the opposite.
China’s central bank is easing lending rules so its banks can make more home mortgage loans. And the European Central Bank needs to lower interest rates to fight weak inflation (inflation hit a five-year low in September).
So, for now, the rush is to the greenback. And that is making gold very affordable for investors. There is a “for sale” sign on gold. There is an “overpriced” sign on stocks. I know which I would buy.