My Two Favorite Picks in the Speculative Oil & Gas Sector
Precious metals stocks have been slammed by the weakness in spot prices for gold and silver. The strongest sector for resource speculation remains oil. Oil prices are firmly holding above $100.00 a barrel; profitability among junior producers is solid.
In virtually all cases, resource stocks move with spot prices. Many junior oil stocks are trading right near their highs, but they aren’t accelerating with spot prices in consolidation around $105.00 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. But the numbers are still good, and it’s not just those companies with exposure to the Bakken oil region; many junior producers are posting solid production and financial growth, and should continue to be good investments.
One company doing well in Colorado is Synergy Resources Corporation (SYRG). This growing oil and gas producer has assets mostly in the Wattenberg Field in the Denver-Julesburg Basin, northeast Colorado.
Currently, the company is operating 218 wells and has ownership interests in 273 gross (219 net) wells. Synergy’s latest quarterly revenues grew 64% to $12.3 million. Average daily production increased to 2,256 barrels of oil equivalent (boe), a sequential increase of nine percent and comparable quarterly increase of 66%.
Being a junior producer, earnings were modest at $3.6 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, but this was a solid gain of 49% comparatively.
A Bakken producer that’s highly liquid on the stock market is Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. (KOG). This growing company operates in the Williston Basin of North Dakota and Montana, as well as in the Green River Basin of Wyoming and Colorado. (See “How Rising Oil Prices Can Help Your Portfolio.”)
Kodiak’s second-quarter sales were $173.5 million, compared to $85.8 million in the second quarter of 2012. The company sold 2.1 million boe for a gain of 103%. Earnings were $44.3 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, compared to $93.1 million, or $0.35 per diluted share.
So there’s lots of growth in resources, but it’s mostly in oil and gas. The thing about junior resource investing is that it’s always high risk, and spot prices are equally—if not more—responsible for a growing company’s share price action. Even a company with a big discovery and lofty production forecast won’t do nearly as well if the spot prices are moving upward.
This is why growing companies like Kodiak and Synergy are currently experiencing a consolidation in their share prices. Spot prices are doing the same.
If I was to pick one speculative sector of the stock market that I felt had some of the most attractive prospects going into 2014, it would be the junior oil and gas companies. The price of oil is solidly holding at more than $100.00 a barrel and will advance on positive data on the U.S. and Chinese economies. And natural gas has nowhere else to go but up after its long price retrenchment (natural gas is a top buy low/sell high long-term trade).
As a speculator in junior oil and gas companies, valuation is an issue. Growth is growth, but not at any cost. The fundamental backdrop needed for this specific sector to keep on doing well is there. The marketplace is rewarding growing energy companies, and it’s through the drill bit.
About the Author | Browse Mitchell Clark's Articles
Mitchell Clark is a senior editor at Lombardi Financial, specializing in large- and micro-cap stocks. He’s the editor of a variety of popular Lombardi Financial newsletters, including Micro-Cap Reporter, Income for Life, Biotech Breakthrough Stock Report, and 100% Letter. Mitchell has been with Lombardi Financial for 17 years. He won the Jack Madden Prize in economic history and is a long-time student of equity markets. Prior to joining Lombardi, Mitchell was a stockbroker for a large investment bank. In the... Read Full Bio »
Forecasts Aug. 28, 2015
Immediate term outlook:
The bear market rally in stocks that started in March 2009, extended because of unprecedented central bank money printing, is coming to an end. Gold bullion is up $1,000 an ounce since we first recommended it in 2002 and we are still bullish on the physical metal.
Short-to-medium term outlook:
World economies are entering their slowest growth period since 2009. The Chinese economy grew last year at its slowest pace in 24 years. Japan is in recession. The eurozone is in depression. With almost half the S&P 500 companies deriving revenue outside the U.S., slower world economic growth will negatively impact revenue and earnings growth of American companies. Domestically, America’s gross domestic product grew by only a meager 2.3% in the second quarter, which will negatively impact an already overpriced equity market.
Estimates Aug. 28, 2015
|Trailing 12-month EPS for Dow Jones companies (Most Recent Quarter)||$1014.15|
|Trailing 12-month Price/earnings multiple (Most Recent Quarter)|
|Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend Yield||2.71%|
|10-year U.S. Treasury Yield||2.14%|