Stock Market Outlook & Prediction for 2014
Lombardi Publishing was established in 1986 as an investment newsletter providing stock market analysis to its readers. Today, we publish 26 paid-for investment letters, most of which provide stock market direction and individual stock picking analysis.
In 2001, Michael Lombardi started his famous daily economic newsletter Profit Confidential. Written by Lombardi Financial editors who have been offering stock market guidance for years to Lombardi customers, Profit Confidential provides a macro-picture on where the stock market is headed, what sectors are hot, and which sectors to avoid.
Over the years, Michael’s financial commentary and the accuracy of his economic predictions have garnered him global attention, and the confidence of over one million investors in more than 140 countries.
Michael Lombardi has been widely recognized as predicting five major economic events over the past 10 years.
1) In 2002, he famously told readers to get into gold
2) Told them to get out of the housing market in 2006
3) Predicted the recession of late 2007
4) Warned readers to get out of stocks in the fall of 2007
5) Advised readers to get back into stocks in March 2009
In 2002, Michael’s Profit Confidential famously advised readers to buy gold-related investments when gold bullion traded under $300.00 an ounce. “I’ve been pushing gold bullion and gold shares for over a year now. Back in January 2002, I personally started buying gold shares.” (As published in Profit Confidential, December 13, 2002.)
In 2006, Profit Confidential “begged” its readers to get out of the housing market years before it plunged. Michael started warnings abut the coming U.S. housing crisis right at the peak of the boom. On August 2, 2006 Michael Lombardi predicted, “I’m getting very worried about the state of the U.S. housing market and its ramifications on the economy. The U.S. could be headed for its first annual decline in home prices on record, adjusted for inflation. And, I really believe this could be a catastrophe for the U.S. economy.”
Michael was also one of the first to predict the U.S. economy would be in a recession by late 2007. On March 22, 2007, he warned, “Over the past few weeks, I’ve written about subprime lenders and how their demise will hurt the U.S. housing market, the economy, and the stock market. There’s no escaping the carnage headed our way because the housing market and subprime business are falling apart. The worst of our problems, because of the easy money made available to borrowers, which fuelled the housing boom that peaked in 2005, has yet to arrive.”
At the same time Michael wrote this, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was quoted as saying, “The worst is over for the U.S. housing market, and there will be no economic spillover effects from the poor housing market.”
Michael Lombardi also warned his readers in advance of the crash in the stock market of 2008. On November 29, 2007, Michael Lombardi predicted, “The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the other major stock market indices finished yesterday with the best two-day showing since 2002. I’m looking at the market really of the past two days as a classic stock market bear trap. As the economy gets closer to contraction, 2008 will likely be a most challenging economic year for America.”
The Dow Jones peaked at 14,279 in October, 2007. A “sucker’s rally” developed in November 2007, which Michael quickly classified as a bear trap for his readers. One year later, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 8,726.
And, Profit Confidential turned bullish on stocks in March of 2009, and rode the bear market rally from a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 6,440 on March 9, 2009, to 12,876 on May 2, 2011, a gain of 99%.
But, Michael is not resting on his laurels from the past 10 years.
In 2013, Michael predicts the devaluation of the U.S. dollar that started in early 2009 will accelerate as the U.S. economy deteriorates, that gold prices will continue to rise, and that the euro is done. Michael also predicts that inflation will be a big, big problem for the U.S.; probably for the rest of the decade. Finally, Michael believes 2013 will be a poor year for stocks.
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. He also has ways investors can protect their holdings, and even make money off the weak economy.
If there’s one thing the stock market needs, it’s a distraction from global growth worries and geopolitical events. And corporate earnings are the ticket for that as this season’s numbers are starting to pour in.
Pharmaceutical benchmark Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) once again beat Wall Street consensus, generating another good quarter of both sales and earnings growth.
The company completed a major divestiture of its ortho-clinical diagnostics division during its latest quarter; even so, it was able to generate domestic sales growth of 11.6% over the same quarter last year. Total consolidated sales grew 5.1% to $18.5 billion. Excluding the impact of the company’s recent divestiture, domestic sales would have increased 14.8% comparatively.
Excluding gains, litigation accrual, tax adjustments, and integration costs from the large acquisition of Synthes, Inc., Johnson & Johnson’s bottom-line earnings grew 9.5% to $4.5 billion, or 10.3% to $1.50 on a diluted earnings-per-share basis.
Once again, global pharmaceutical sales, including over-the-counter products, were the driver of growth, up 18.1% over the same quarter last year.
Johnson & Johnson clearly continues to have operational momentum. Positive price action in the stock may be slow near-term commensurate with the broader market, but this company is still delivering the goods.
Management increased its full-year earnings guidance and a $5.0-billion share repurchase program is still available at their discretion.
Another big-name corporation reporting solid earnings results was Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), the largest U.S. mortgage lender. The company beat Street consensus on revenues and matched the earnings estimate.
And Citigroup Inc. (C) experienced a big increase in its revenues, too, coming in at $19.6 billion, up from $17.9 billion. … Read More
My favorite pharmaceutical company for long-term investors is still Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), for now.
This business has managed to produce very good financial growth in recent history and its share price has appreciated exceptionally well considering this is a DOW stock, especially over the last two years.
Large-cap companies can’t avoid the business cycle and they can’t avoid industry-specific trends. For pharmaceuticals in particular, the drug development cycle can be very long-winded.
Last quarter, Johnson & Johnson produced exceptional growth in its pharmaceutical business, which is the company’s largest contributor to revenues.
But while Johnson & Johnson’s share price has done extremely well, even over the last few months, it very well could be that this company’s operating momentum is about to change.
Wall Street earnings estimates for the upcoming quarter (the company reports October 14) have been ticking higher, but total sales growth in 2015 is currently very modest. Earnings growth in 2015 is expected to improve by mid-single digits over all of 2014.
Last quarter, company management said that it would not be able to maintain the exceptional sales growth in its pharmaceutical division going forward. We may see this result in next week’s report. (See “Drop in This Company’s Stock Price Makes It Very Attractive Now.”)
On the stock market, equity securities can experience their own business cycles as investors trade in a herd mentality.
Institutional shareholders can actually get tired or bored with a particular company. Johnson & Johnson has an exceptional track record of wealth creation with capital gains combined with dividend growth.
But from 2002 to 2012, the company just traded sideways on … Read More
More good numbers are coming down the earnings pipeline, and if the broader stock market is going to take a well-deserved rest, corporate results are a positive indicator going into 2015.
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) is a very good business in terms of its financial growth. The Atlanta-based company is one of the world’s largest processors of credit and debit card payments and business is growing by the double-digits.
The company’s first fiscal quarter of 2015 (ended August 31, 2014) produced total sales of $705 million for a comparable quarterly gain of 12%. GAAP diluted earnings grew 26% to $1.10 per share or 18% to $84.4 million.
Management increased its fiscal 2015 full-year sales estimate to between $2.74 and $2.79 billion, representing comparative growth of between seven and nine percent. Plus, the company expects margin expansion going forward, which will go right to earnings.
Global Payments has been in a prolonged consolidation on the stock market and finally broke out of this trend about this time last year. Given the company’s solid fiscal first quarter, further price appreciation from this position is likely.
Also announcing better-than-expected numbers was McCormick & Company (MKC). The iconic spice and condiment manufacturer is often cited as a more risk-averse stock for income-seeking investors.
This business is very mature and no one expects it to grow by double-digits. But the company just experienced very good growth in its bottom-line and the stock jumped on the news.
McCormick’s third-quarter sales grew three percent to $1.04 billion. The company’s Chinese operations produced 15% comparative growth in the most recent quarter.
Higher operating income and a lower tax … Read More
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