Stock Market Bounce? The Price of Oil Says No

By Friday, October 26, 2012

There are very few stocks accelerating in this market; the vast majority of stocks have pulled back from their recent highs. We may yet get another period of stock market upside—another kick at the can before a meaningful correction. This market is due for a correction, and with revenue and earnings expectations coming down, it would be a natural development right after third-quarter earnings season comes to a close.

There’s been some very good price pops among blue chips; a recent standout is Johnson & Johnson (NYSE/JNJ), which surprised the stock market with its earnings. But there’s been a meaningful breakdown in a lot of stocks, especially those with significant international operations, not surprisingly. We’ve had weak stock market performances (and earnings) from companies like NIKE, Inc. (NYSE/NKE) and McDonalds Corporation (NYSE/MCD), which were former stock market leaders until May of this year. The stock spiked over four points on the news and has done well since June. Johnson & Johnson’s stock chart is

johnson and johnson stock chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

PepsiCo, Inc. (NYSE/PEP) is a benchmark stock that I always follow. This company is fairly priced and boasts a current dividend yield of 3.1%; but the stock has been breaking down since late August and remains in a clear downtrend. PepsiCo’s stock chart is featured below:

pepsico inc stock chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

 The Coco-Cola Company (NYSE/KO) is performing similarly, along with many other brand-name consumer stocks. (See “What Makes Dividend Increases Market-moving News.”) With so many blue chips well below their recent highs, I don’t see the stock market producing a meaningful advance until these positions turn around. Third-quarter earnings were mediocre and third-quarter revenues were worse.

So while we might get some near-term upside due to some more positive economic news, the stock market is signaling a correction, and investors shouldn’t be considering new positions. I’d like to see a meaningful correction in the main stock market indices before I consider buying. Corporate earnings aren’t really expected to grow next quarter. Mind you, so many individual investors aren’t participating in this market anyway because the headwinds are very obvious.

The spot price of oil continues to be one of the best near-term gauges on investor sentiment. At $88.00 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), it isn’t saying much.


About the Author | Browse Mitchell Clark's Articles

Mitchell Clark is a senior editor at Lombardi Financial, specializing in large- and micro-cap stocks. He’s the editor of a variety of popular Lombardi Financial newsletters, including Micro-Cap Reporter, Income for Life, Biotech Breakthrough Stock Report, and 100% Letter. Mitchell has been with Lombardi Financial for 17 years. He won the Jack Madden Prize in economic history and is a long-time student of equity markets. Prior to joining Lombardi, Mitchell was a stockbroker for a large investment bank. In the... Read Full Bio »

Sep. 3, 2015
Trailing 12-month EPS for Dow Jones companies (Most Recent Quarter) $1014.15
Trailing 12-month Price/earnings multiple (Most Recent Quarter)

17.44

Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend Yield 2.62%
10-year U.S. Treasury Yield 2.19%

Immediate term outlook:
The bear market rally in stocks that started in March 2009, extended because of unprecedented central bank money printing, is coming to an end. Gold bullion is up $1,000 an ounce since we first recommended it in 2002 and we are still bullish on the physical metal.

Short-to-medium term outlook:
World economies are entering their slowest growth period since 2009. The Chinese economy grew last year at its slowest pace in 24 years. Japan is in recession. The eurozone is in depression. With almost half the S&P 500 companies deriving revenue outside the U.S., slower world economic growth will negatively impact revenue and earnings growth of American companies. Domestically, America’s gross domestic product grew by only a meager 2.3% in the second quarter, which will negatively impact an already overpriced equity market.

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