Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

This Stock Market Index Is Screaming Sell!

Friday, September 28th, 2012
By for Profit Confidential

Stock Market Index Is Screaming SellOne of stock market’s leaders over the past few years has been Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE/UNP). I always follow this market leader, which has been a tremendous wealth-creator in recent history. Railroad stocks recently took it on the chin after Norfolk Southern Corporation (NYSE/NSC) announced that its third-quarter earnings would be below consensus due to a decrease in coal shipments. The entire railroad group sold off on the stock market, including Union Pacific, which is a key component of the Dow Jones Transportation Average.

Transportation stocks are important to the stock market’s overall trend, and “confirmation” from the index is a key part of Dow theory. But transportation stocks only do well when the Main Street economy is doing well, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average has been flat all year. So it figures that the Dow Jones Transportation Average isn’t going up along with the rest of the stock market, because the economy isn’t growing; and there lies the truth about the current state of things. The stock market is going up, but transportation stocks are not. According to history, this divergence can’t last very long, and it makes the stock market look very vulnerable to a major correction.

The Dow Jones Industrials, the S&P 500 Index, and the NASDAQ Composite all have had solid gains so far this year. But many component companies within the Dow Jones Transportation Average have not; in fact a lot of these stocks have been going down for some time now.

United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE/UPS) is another major component of the Dow Jones Transportation Average, and this stock has been trending lower since March. The company’s recent stock chart is featured below:

 United Parcel Service Chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

  • Still worried about the economy? Become an elite charter member of George's DAILY PROFITS and you could...


    George gave us the $2.8-billion IT infrastructure provider, up 4,745.20%; the $1.8-billion advertising agency, up 1,295.44%; and the $762-million business software company, up 1,213.19%.

    Only charter members can follow George daily.

    Learn how here!

J.B. Hunt Transportation Services, Inc. (NASDAQ/JBHT) has been a major wealth-creator since 2003, and this component company of the Dow Jones Transportation Average recently turned negative, right at the time when the rest of the stock market was accelerating on expectations for a third round of quantitative easing (QE3). Here is a recent stock chart for J.B. Hunt:

J.B.Hunt Transport Chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

To me, this divergence among transportation stocks is a major problem. Even though I don’t think the stock market is overvalued, it is definitely ahead of the current economic reality. (See “Stock Market: Will it Heed The Warnings?”) Second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) in the U.S. came in at 1.3%, well below consensus of 1.7%. Orders for durable goods tumbled in August.

The stock market went up this summer on the hope of QE3 and more monetary stimulus in China. Trading on hope works for a little while, but the economic data is showing something else; the Dow Jones Transportation Average currently reveals a major sell signal for the rest of the stock market. The proof will be in the upcoming earnings releases of component companies that make up the index. Even in the face of lower oil prices, the Dow Jones Transportation Average is trending lower. I believe this is the most important piece of evidence supporting a major stock market correction in the near future.

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 0.0/10 (0 votes cast)
VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

This is an entirely free service. No credit card required.

We hate spam as much as you do.
Check out our privacy policy.

Mitchell Clark - Equity Markets Specialist, Financial AdvisorMitchell Clark, B. Comm. is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial specializing in large- and micro-cap stocks. He’s the editor of a variety of popular Lombardi Financial newsletters, such as Income for Life and Micro-Cap Reporter. Mitchell, who has been with Lombardi Financial for 17 years, won the Jack Madden Prize in economic history and is a long-time student of equity markets. Prior to joining Lombardi, Mitchell was as a stock broker for a large investment bank. Add Mitchell Clark to your Google+ circles

The Great Crash of 2014

A stock market crash bigger than what happened in 2008 and early 2009 is headed our way.

In fact, we are predicting this crash will be even more devastating than the 1929 crash…

…the ramifications of which will hit the economy and Americans deeper than anything we’ve ever seen.

Our 27-year-old research firm feels so strongly about this, we’ve just produced a video to warn investors called, “The Great Crash of 2014.”

In case you are not familiar with our research work on the stock market:

In late 2001, in the aftermath of 9/11, we told our clients to buy small-cap stocks. They rose about 100% after we made that call.

We were one of the first major advisors to turn bullish on gold.

Throughout 2002, we urged our readers to buy gold stocks; many of which doubled and even tripled in price.

In November of 2007, we started begging our customers to get out of the stock market. Shortly afterwards, it was widely recognized that October 2007 was the top for stocks.

We correctly predicted the crash in the stock market of 2008 and early 2009.

And in March of 2009, we started telling our readers to jump into small caps. The Russell 2000 gained about 175% from when we made that call in 2009 to today.

Many investors will find our next prediction hard to believe until they see all the proof we have to back it up.

Even if you don’t own stocks, what’s about to happen will affect you!

I urge you to be among the first to get our next major prediction.
See it here now in this just-released alarming video.