In a sense, the stock market continues to be held hostage by the continuing sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone and the “fiscal cliff” in the U.S. But investor sentiment changed before recent worries regarding these two issues, and corporate earnings growth is slowing. I think we’ll be very lucky to see any gross domestic product (GDP) growth next year from Western economies.
Wall Street still expects broad-based earnings growth next year, but the estimated pace of this growth is being reduced considerably. Lots of Dow stocks, even Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE/XOM), are seeing their earnings estimates revised lower for 2013.
So we’re in a stock market where investment risk is high, uncertainty is great, and earnings outlooks are going down. It’s not a great time to be a buyer.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ/AAPL) remains this market’s perfect benchmark stock, capturing investor sentiment at its core. Apple’s share price is now off its recent all-time high by $160.00 a share—that’s correction territory and the stock’s near-term downward trend looks intact. Apple’s stock chart is below:
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
And the pain (on the stock market) doesn’t stop there; Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ/AMZN) is now at a major technical price floor and is very close to breaking down further. Google Inc. (NASDAQ/GOOG) is holding up okay in this market for now, but the position is still off by $100.00 a share since last month. (See “What Many Blue Chips Are Signaling.”)
The stock market is at a crossroads right now. All the information is in the marketplace: the declining expectations for earnings, the continuing sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone, and the looming “fiscal cliff” in the U.S. In my view, the key to preventing a severe stock market correction in the near future is for policymakers to act in a way that creates a lot more certainty for investors. That’s all the stock market wants right now; earnings growth is secondary.
Frankly, I think investment risk in the equity market is too high to warrant making new investments. If a full-blown stock market correction takes place, it probably would be a good buying opportunity. But if it doesn’t, I don’t see the point of taking on new positions in an environment of falling earnings outlooks.
According to the data, the U.S. economy is experiencing a modest recovery in a number of sectors. But the other issues around the world are too great an uncertainty for stock market investors to ignore, and this is why investor sentiment has deteriorated so rapidly since third-quarter earnings season. The stock market is due for a technical bounce-back, but it won’t last so long, as so much uncertainty exists for the next six weeks.
Why a Severe Stock Market Correction’s Imminent was last modified: November 14th, 2012 by Mitchell Clark, B.Comm.
Mitchell Clark is a senior editor at Lombardi Financial, specializing in large- and micro-cap stocks. He’s the editor of a variety of popular Lombardi Financial newsletters, including Micro-Cap Reporter, Income for Life, Biotech Breakthrough Stock Report, and 100% Letter. Mitchell has been with Lombardi Financial for 17 years. He won the Jack Madden Prize in economic history and is a long-time student of equity markets. Prior to joining Lombardi, Mitchell was a stockbroker for a large investment bank. In the... Read Full Bio »
Forecasts Aug. 28, 2015
Immediate term outlook:
The bear market rally in stocks that started in March 2009, extended because of unprecedented central bank money printing, is coming to an end. Gold bullion is up $1,000 an ounce since we first recommended it in 2002 and we are still bullish on the physical metal.
Short-to-medium term outlook:
World economies are entering their slowest growth period since 2009. The Chinese economy grew last year at its slowest pace in 24 years. Japan is in recession. The eurozone is in depression. With almost half the S&P 500 companies deriving revenue outside the U.S., slower world economic growth will negatively impact revenue and earnings growth of American companies. Domestically, America’s gross domestic product grew by only a meager 2.3% in the second quarter, which will negatively impact an already overpriced equity market.
Estimates Aug. 28, 2015
Trailing 12-month EPS for Dow Jones companies (Most Recent Quarter)