Posts Tagged ‘big banks’
I have been saying this for a while: You can’t have a housing recovery unless actual home buyers are involved.
We are very far away from seeing the housing market reach its 2005 highs…and as time passes, it becomes clearer that this generation may never see them again.
How can I say that?
What we have seen in the housing market since then, but mostly since 2012, in my opinion, is nothing more than a dead-cat bounce scenario—an increase in prices after a massive decline. The chart below shows how far off we are from the housing prices of 2005.
One of the key indicators I follow in respect to the state of the housing market is mortgage originations. This data gives me an idea about demand for homes, as rising demand for mortgages means more people are buying homes. And as demand increases, prices should be increasing.
But the opposite is happening…
In the first quarter of 2014, mortgage originations at Citigroup Inc. (NYSE/C) declined 71% from the same period a year ago. The bank issued $5.2 billion in mortgages in the first quarter of 2014, compared to $8.3 billion in the previous quarter and $18.0 billion in the first quarter of 2013. (Source: Citigroup Inc. web site, last accessed April 14, 2014.)
Total mortgage origination volume at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE/JPM) declined by 68% in the first quarter of 2014 from the same period a year ago. At JPMorgan, in the first quarter of 2014, $17.0 billion worth of mortgages were issued, compared to $52.7 billion in the same period a year ago. … Read More
When it comes to love, we often hear the phrase, “Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.” Well, the same could be said for the stock market.
Many investors look for the companies that deliver consistent results and satisfy the number-crunchers on Wall Street. While I belong to that group, I also take alternative views and search for companies that are the so-called dogs of the stock market. However, as our theme suggests, choosing in the stock market based only on a company’s outer appearance doesn’t always produce the best outcome.
Think about it this way: Why always select the stocks that are in favor by the stock market? Often, you may be the last to the dance, so you end up chasing stocks that have already made major stock market moves—the upside is limited.
I like looking at distressed companies that are facing some hurdles but have enough upside potential to make these stocks a worthwhile trade in the stock market. These plays are often referred to as contrarian investments—companies that are out of favor but have enough potential to demand a closer look in the stock market. In this case, you are often buying a company at a low valuation and price, as the stock market has turned against them.
I like these contrarian situations, as the potential upside is significant if these companies can turn around their operations.
In the past, I have highlighted opportunities such as Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ/GRPN) and Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ/FB)—both of which made spectacular gains thereafter. (Read “Why Macy’s Is Such a ‘Good’ Retail Play.”)
Nokia Corporation (NYSE/NOK) was … Read More
To see where the U.S. housing market is headed, we really need to look at what real home buyers—those who are planning to stay in their home for the long term—are doing. Institutional investors, who came into the housing market in 2012 and bought massive amounts of homes, are speculators; they’ll quickly rush out of the housing market if they can get a profit or if they can get a better return on their money elsewhere.
Right now, real home buyers are not very active in the U.S. housing market, as they face challenges. In fact, it looks like the number of real home buyers in the housing market is declining.
Between January and December of 2013, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate tracked by Freddie Mac increased by 31%. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 3.41% in January, and it increased to 4.46% by December. (Source: Freddie Mac web site, last accessed January 15, 2014.) Higher interest costs are a real challenge for home buyers.
As we can see from the chart below, there was a sudden change in the direction of interest rates after the Federal Reserve hinted in the spring of 2013 that it would start to “taper” its quantitative easing (money printing) program. It is widely expected that the Fed will continue to taper throughout 2014 as it drastically pulls back on its massive money printing scheme.
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
Another challenge home buyers face is stagnant growth in their incomes. In 2013, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees in the U.S. increased by only 1.85%—less than real inflation. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank … Read More
As I often harp on about in these pages; economic growth occurs when the general standard of living in a country gets better. You can’t say an economy is improving when a significant portion of the population is suffering. You can’t claim there’s economic growth when the poverty rate is increasing. You can’t say the economy is improving when personal incomes and savings are declining.
Looking at this a little closer…
Food stamps usage in the U.S. economy has increased 68% since 2008, with 47.66 million people, or more than 15% of the entire U.S. population, now using food stamps. Going back to 2008, there were 28.22 million Americans using some form of food stamps then. (Source: United States Department of Agriculture, November 8, 2013.)
From 2000 to 2012, the poverty rate in the U.S. economy increased from 12.2% to 15.9%—a hike in the poverty rate of more than 30% in just 12 years. In 2000, there were 33.3 million Americans living in poverty; this number grew to 48.8 million people in 2012. (Source: United States Census Bureau, September 2013.)
In 2008, the median household income in the U.S. economy was $53,644. In 2012, it was almost five percent lower at $51,017. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site, last accessed December 2, 2013.)
And because incomes have fallen and prices have risen, people have no choice but to save less.
Back in November of 2008, Americans saved an average of 6.1% of their disposable income, meaning they saved $6.10 for every $100.00 they earned after taxes. In August of this year, personal savings as a percentage of … Read More
Central banks around the global economy are involved in a race that will not end well. Of course, I’m talking about the race to the bottom of currency devaluation, which is being achieved through the printing of more and more paper money backed by nothing.
Almost weekly, I hear news about different central banks in the global economy cranking up the speed of their printing presses; they are fixated on printing money because these central banks believe they can solve their economic problems by printing. They are wrong!
Our own Federal Reserve is creating $85.0 billion a month in money with the hopes of bringing economic growth to the U.S. economy. But this strategy is failing the masses in America. Those who have benefited the most from this exercise have been big banks, Wall Street, and the rich. The poor and middle-class are in a worse situation now than in 2007!
But it’s not just the Federal Reserve that’s printing massive amounts of new money. Other central banks are doing the same under a fancy phrase: “quantitative easing.”
In its most recent monetary policy statement, the Bank of Japan reiterated it’s take on printing. It said the central bank will continue to work towards increasing the monetary base in the country by 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen per annum. The central bank will buy Japanese government bonds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and real estate investment trusts with the freshly printed money. (Source: Bank of Japan, November 21, 2013.) (Yes, the Bank of Japan is buying securities that trade on the stock market. As our next American financial crisis approaches, I … Read More
The U.S. Department of the Treasury has reported that for the federal government’s fiscal 2013 year, which ended on September 30, 2013, the U.S. government budget deficit was $680 billion—the smallest budget deficit in five years. (Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service, October 30, 2013.)
Should this be taken as great news? No, it’s “smoke and mirrors,” as I will explain below. But the mainstream certainly thinks this year’s budge deficit, which came in below $1.0 trillion, is good news. They forget that no matter how you look at it, any budget deficit, no matter how small or large, is adding to a bigger problem at hand—our massive national debt.
Let’s face it: a budget deficit at the end of the day means the government spent more money than it received. Where does this extra money that the government spends come from? The answer is simple: it borrows. And as a result, the national debt rises.
Our national debt has increased significantly over the past few years. At the beginning of 2008, the U.S. national debt stood at $9.2 trillion. Today, it stands above $17.0 trillion. (Source: Treasury Direct web site, last accessed October 31, 2013.) This represents an increase of almost 85% in the national debt in the matter of a few years.
I believe the national debt will double from here…from $17.0 trillion to $34.0 trillion.
Why am I so negative on the national debt? I’m skeptical because I don’t believe this year’s numbers present the real story on government spending. Let me explain…
In the fiscal 2013 year, the U.S. government paid … Read More
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided this week to keep quantitative easing and easy monetary policy going. The statement by the Federal Reserve said, “To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens.” (Source: Federal Reserve, October 30, 2013.)
I’m one of those economists who believes the longer this goes on, the more troubles we are going to see. Is the Federal Reserve playing with fire?
It’s been almost five years since the Federal Reserve introduced the idea of quantitative easing to the U.S. economy. The goal was to help spur the economy and to help the average Joe, who, at the end of the day, lost his job and his house.
Has that happened?
It’s very clear: quantitative easing and the easy monetary policy that the Federal Reserve has been implementing for some time haven’t really filtered down to the average American. But it is helping the big banks; we have seen their profits grow significantly since 2009, while the average consumer has seen his/her real wages decline. Those who are closing in on retirement are forced to stay longer in their career or rethink their options because their savings have either been depleted or haven’t grown enough.
And we are seeing consumer confidence slide lower. This is the exact opposite of what the quantitative easing was supposed to do. For the week ended October 27, the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index declined to the lowest … Read More
Back in early August, I turned negative on the big banks and suggested that a bearish double-top was forming on the Bank Index chart. At that time, the Bank Index was trading at just over 65, as you can see on the chart below. (Read “Four Important Stock Charts Showing Warning Signs.”)
In early October, the Bank Index fell to around 61 (as indicated by the lowest shaded oval in the chart below). The index held and has since rallied back above the upper resistance, suggesting that it could be set for a breakout back up to its July highs. However, my feeling is that the easy money in the big banks has been made and going forward, the big banks are now dividend plays.
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
Investment guru Warren Buffett continues to like the big banks. I don’t blame him, as Buffett has made more than $5.0 billion in paper profits on his initial $5.7 billion investment in the ailing Bank of America Corporation (NYSE/BAC; dividend yield 0.30%), when the sector was in disarray following the Lehman Brothers collapse.
So far in the third-quarter earnings season, the big banks have largely delivered decent results.
Bank of America reported earnings of $0.20 per diluted share on year-over-year revenue growth of 5.3% to $21.7 billion, beating the Thomson Financial consensus earnings-per-share (EPS) estimate by $0.02.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE/JPM; dividend yield 2.90%) reported a loss of $380 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, but this included a massive $9.15-billion pre-tax charge for legal and government fees. The adjusted earnings of $1.42 per diluted share handily beat … Read More
What the heck is with this stock market? The ability of the stock market to hold and avert a major correction over the past two weeks and then follow this with an upward move on the charts is a surprise—at least in my view it is, as it clearly shows the bullish bias controlling this stock market.
The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are at new recent highs as the desire for growth by investors continues, which has largely been the story this year.
The S&P 500 is within striking range of its September record high.
The focus on the debt ceiling is important but also way overdone, in my opinion, given that we are in the midst of the third-quarter earnings season and, well, it has been subpar early on.
Yes, it’s still early in the earnings season, but I expect more subpar results. Of course, what I expect doesn’t matter—momentum and speculation are what drive this stock market.
So far, about six percent of S&P 500 companies have reported, and a dismal 55% of these companies have beaten estimates. That’s just not good. The results are also well below the historical average at just over 60%, and to make matters worse, the results were compared to estimates that were already lowered by Wall Street. Revenue growth is also lackluster, as I expected, which is not what we should be seeing with an upward-trending stock market.
The big banks reported decent results, but much of the easy money in this stock market sector has been made. The retail sector, which I view as critical due to its impact on … Read More
Central banks have pretty much stopped selling gold bullion, which is very important. In 1999, a number of central banks in Europe formed an alliance and agreed that they would not sell more than 400 tonnes of gold bullion per year. The agreement was called the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA). In 2004, the CBGA was renewed again; this time the limit was 500 tonnes. Once again, it was renewed for another five years in 2009, and the limit is back to the sale of no more than 400 tonnes of gold bullion per year.
The chart below shows how much gold bullion the central banks in Europe sold in each period of the CBGA. (Source: World Gold Council web site, last accessed October 11, 2013.)
Sales in Tonnes
* Sales are until 2013.
Notice anything different? The central banks in Europe have put the brakes on their sales of gold bullion. In fact, from September 27, 2012 to September 26, 2013, these central banks only sold 5.1 tonnes of gold bullion! This is hands down the lowest amount sold since the agreement started in 1999.
When it comes to stocks, if owners of a stock aren’t selling and there’s a significant number of buyers who want to buy, the price of the stock usually goes up as the simple rule of economics … Read More
Companies in key stock indices have started to report their corporate earnings for the third quarter of this year. Not surprising, they are weak and show signs of stress.
According to FactSet, up until October 4, 90 companies in key stock indices like the S&P 500 issued negative guidance about their third-quarter corporate earnings per share. This is the highest number of companies posting negative guidance since the research company started to track earnings guidance back in 2006. (Source: “Earnings Insight,” FactSet, October 4, 2013.)
The corporate earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is expected to be about three percent in the third quarter, and just like the last quarter, once again, a significant portion of the boost in earnings will come from the financial sector. If you take the financial sector’s corporate earnings out of the equation, earnings growth rates drop down to about 1.7%. Take away all the stock buyback programs public companies have conducted this year, and the earnings growth picture gets really ugly.
I think the smart money is sensing companies are struggling to grow, so they are starting to pull money out of the market.
According to the Investment Company Institute, for the week ended September 25, the long-term U.S. stock mutual funds had a net outflow of $3.8 billion in capital. Similarly, for the week ended October 2, the net outflow continued and increased to $4.12 billion. (Source: Investment Company Institute, October 9, 2013.)
Key stock indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the NASDAQ have shed some gains recently; they are much lower than their all-time highs posted just … Read More
Income is the largest factor when it comes to determining changes in the consumer spending. Unfortunately, personal income is declining in the U.S. economy—not a good indicator; no matter how anyone tries to spin it.
In the first eight months of 2012, the average change in real personal disposable income (income adjusted for price change) in the U.S. economy was 0.11%. In the first eight months of this year, real personal disposable income has actually contracted by 0.4%. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site, last accessed October 4, 2013.)
As real disposable income pulls back, we are seeing the effects of slow consumer spending starting to emerge.
Total light vehicle sales by the automakers in the U.S. economy declined 4.2% in September compared to the same period a year ago. Passenger car sales declined 5.6% in the month. Automakers like General Motors Company (NYSE/GM) saw their total car sales fall 17.1% in September from the same period in 2012. (Source: Autodata, October 1, 2013.)
Another indicator of slowing consumer spending, crude oil inventories are increasing. For the week ended September 27, the Energy Information Administration reported that there was a build-up of 363.7 million barrels of crude oil in the U.S. economy. The agency reiterated these inventory levels are “toward the upper range for this time of the year.” (Source: Energy Information Administration, October 2, 2013.) When there’s less consumer spending, or companies are producing less, then fewer barrels of crude oil are used.
And worst of all, 19 companies in the consumer discretionary sector of the S&P 500 have issued negative guidance about their corporate … Read More
The financial crisis of 2008 was the biggest panic America had witnessed since the Great Depression. Dubbed the “Great Recession,” its after-effects linger. In fact, this is the worst post-bust recovery on record.
Today, for investors, especially stock market investors, there are two camps: those who believe we are in recovery, and those (like me) who believe something is wrong with this recovery…it doesn’t feel or smell right.
America, I believe, was forever changed following the financial crisis. There are more people working into their retirement years today than ever before because they can’t make it without working. There are more people on food stamp programs and government handouts than ever before.
As I wrote yesterday, the housing recovery isn’t real. We don’t have first-time home buyers coming in and buying homes to live in (like they should). Instead, large financial institutions have taken up the inventory of foreclosed homes to rent them out for a profit.
And most of the jobs that have been created since the financial crisis have been in the low-paying service sector—in retail jobs and restaurant jobs. Our kids are graduating from college (with plenty of debt) and are unable to find the job they trained for because they are competing against older middle managers for these jobs.
Our Federal Reserve, which I believe could be the only central bank in the world not owned by the government of the country it operates in, says our economic problems can be corrected by printing lots of extra paper money. That’s what the media is having us believe, too.
The real story is that money printing has … Read More
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