Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

consumer confidence

About That QE4…

By | October 20, 2014

Another Round of Money Printing Coming SoonIt’s widely expected that at the end of this month, the Federal Reserve will end its third round of quantitative easing (that began in September of 2012). This is QE3, where the Federal Reserve was printing $85.0 billion of new money every month and using it to buy U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In the beginning of 2014, the Fed started reducing the amount of money it was printing … Read More

The Worst Kept Secret on Wall Street

By | June 2, 2014

Why Retail Stocks Will Get Hit the HardestIn the first quarter of 2014, Retail Metrics, a retail industry research firm, found U.S. retailers missed their corporate earnings estimates by the most since the year 2000!

As I have been writing, consumer spending only increases when consumer confidence is rising. Unfortunately, in the U.S. economy today, that confidence is plummeting.

Last month, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index declined three percent from a month earlier. It … Read More

Why Are Car Sales Down So Much?

By | January 8, 2014

Soft Auto Sales Just the Beginning of a Poorer 2014All of a sudden, auto sales are declining…

Auto sales in the U.S. economy declined to an annual rate of 15.4 million units in December. In November, this number stood at 16.41 million units—a decline of more than six percent. (Source: Motor Intelligence, January 3, 2014.) Analysts were caught off guard by the decline in December auto sales; they were expecting an increase!

I see the decline in auto … Read More

U.S. Treasuries Hit 3%; Marks End of Stock Rally?

By | January 6, 2014

Another Five Stock Market Warning Signs to Add to the ListWhile 2013 will go down as the banner year for the S&P 500 and other key stock indices no one expected, the number of warning signs about this overpriced and overbought stock market has only increased. And my readers need to know about them…

Trading volume, which is the number of shares traded, fell in 2013. The chart below (bottom portion of the chart) shows trading volume on the S&P … Read More

What Bernanke Cemented for Wall Street Yesterday

By | December 19, 2013

Why This Next Stock Market Bust Is Going to Be a DoozySomething very interesting happened yesterday.

The Federal Reserve said it would start “tapering” its quantitative easing program by $10.0 billion a month. In other words, the Fed will now print $75.0 trillion a month in new money instead of $85.0 trillion a month.

Firstly, the whole concept of the central bank printing money out of thin air never made sense to me because the money isn’t backed by anything. The … Read More

Financial Reports

If Money Printing Failed in Japan, Why Would It Work in the U.S.?

By | December 17, 2013

Why Is the Japanese Economy Starting to Tank AgainWhat the Federal Reserve is doing in the U.S.—its effort to get the economy going via its money printing program—has already been tried by the second-largest economy in the world: Japan.

Unfortunately, the easy monetary policy implemented by the Bank of Japan didn’t spur the Japanese economy. So why would it work for the U.S. economy?

One of the core purposes of easy monetary policy by the Federal Reserve was … Read More

Investors Borrowing Like Drunkards to Buy Stocks Again?

By | December 2, 2013

silver pricesThis morning we learned sales for this year’s Black Friday weekend declined for the first time since 2009. I have been warning my readers for months that falling consumer confidence would result in a pullback in consumer spending—and that’s exactly what’s happening this holiday shopping season.

According to the National Retail Federation, consumers spent an average of $407.02 from Thursday through Sunday, down about four percent from what they spent … Read More

Why the Blind Optimism Behind the Housing Recovery Won’t End Well

By | November 11, 2013

Housing RecoveryThe news headlines are saying the U.S. housing market is witnessing robust growth and flipping homes for profit is back.

While many are now saying there is growth in the U.S. housing market and that it will continue, I disagree with them, based on many different factors…all of which I want my readers to know about.

Yes, home prices have gone up, but that’s about it for positive developments. The … Read More

Consumer Confidence Trend Suggests Key Stock Indices Setting Up for Disappointment

By | November 11, 2013

Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy is falling fast. This phenomenon will bring key stock indices lower. But sadly, no one is really talking about this. “Buy, buy, and buy even more” is the theme among stock advisors. Optimism is increasing, and so is stock market risk.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, a measure of consumer confidence in the U.S. economy, has fallen to a level not … Read More

National Debt to Double from $17.0 trillion to $34.0 Trillion?

By | November 1, 2013

national debtCan it be true?

The U.S. Department of the Treasury has reported that for the federal government’s fiscal 2013 year, which ended on September 30, 2013, the U.S. government budget deficit was $680 billion—the smallest budget deficit in five years. (Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service, October 30, 2013.)

Should this be taken as great news? No, it’s “smoke and mirrors,” as I will explain below. But the mainstream certainly … Read More

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