Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

consumer spending

Feel Like You Are Missing Out?

By | August 27, 2014

Stock Market Correction Very HighIf you follow the financial news, it feels like the stock market is moving higher and higher…a situation in which investors often feel they are missing out.

But the reality of the situation is very different. So far this year, almost eight full months in, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up only three percent.

Would you buy stocks with the Dow Jones trading at 17,100, near a record-high price-to-earnings … Read More

Two Important Economic Signals to Share with My Readers This Morning

By | August 25, 2014

U.S. Consumer Confidence CollapsingA good gauge for me on how consumers in the U.S. economy are faring has always been the statistics coming out of Wal-Mart.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE/WMT) reported its operating income in its second quarter (ended July 31, 2014) declined by 2.4%. Its subsidiary, Sam’s Club (wholesale store), saw its operating income, after taking out fuel, decline by 10.2%. (Source: Wal-Mart Stores Inc., August 14, 2014.)

For its entire 2015 … Read More

Why China Catches My Eye as a Top Opportunity Right Now

By | July 18, 2014

My Top Three Foreign Investment OpportunitiesA few years ago, investors couldn’t get enough of Chinese stocks. This led to numerous frauds committed by crooks in China that has since tarnished the reputation and reliability of all Chinese companies, whether they’re legitimate or not, despite their operating in one of the top growth areas in the world.

While I’m not focused on Chinese stocks at this moment due to better trading opportunities in the domestic stock … Read More

Stock Market Pricing-in a Recession?

By | July 2, 2014

U.S. Economy Close to Technical RecessionBy no surprise to me whatsoever, the government’s third and final estimate of first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) came in at a negative annual pace of 2.9%. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, June 25, 2014.) The U.S. economy’s growth rate in the first quarter of this year was the worst since 2009.

I’ve been writing since the fall of 2013 that the U.S. economy would see an economic … Read More

Guess Who Is Pushing the Stock Market Higher Now

By | June 23, 2014

So That's Why Stocks Have Been Moving Higher…When I look at the stock market, I ask who in their right mind would buy stocks?

While key stock market indices creep higher, the fundamentals suggest the complete opposite. But despite valuations being stretched, insiders selling, corporate revenue growth being non-existent, and the U.S. economy contracting in the first quarter of this year, the S&P 500 is up seven percent since the beginning of 2014, the Dow Jones Industrial … Read More

Why We Are Closer to a Recession in 2014 Than You Think

By | June 13, 2014

U.S. Economy to Fall into a Recession This QuarterDon’t buy into the notion that there’s economic growth in America!

We’ve already seen U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) “unexpectedly” decline in the first quarter of 2014, and now there are signs of another contraction in the current quarter. (The technical definition of a recession is two negative quarters of GDP—we’re halfway there!)

As you know, consumer spending is the biggest part of our U.S. economy, accounting for about two-thirds … Read More

The Worst Kept Secret on Wall Street

By | June 2, 2014

Why Retail Stocks Will Get Hit the HardestIn the first quarter of 2014, Retail Metrics, a retail industry research firm, found U.S. retailers missed their corporate earnings estimates by the most since the year 2000!

As I have been writing, consumer spending only increases when consumer confidence is rising. Unfortunately, in the U.S. economy today, that confidence is plummeting.

Last month, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index declined three percent from a month earlier. It … Read More

Proof the Incentive to Work Is Fading

By | May 5, 2014

U.S. Exports Plummet First Quarter 2014I keep hearing about the economy improving, but I keep asking, where? I ask because the facts continue to say otherwise.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports gross domestic product (GDP) came in at just 0.1% in the first quarter of 2014. To remind my readers, in the fourth quarter of 2013, U.S. GDP grew by 2.6%. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 30, 2014.)

These GDP figures … Read More

U.S. Economy to Enter Recession in Next 12 Months or Less

By | April 28, 2014

Consumer Spending Telling Us About U.S. EconomyAn economy is said to be technically in a recession when it experiences two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

The biggest portion of the U.S. GDP calculation is consumer spending; then comes investments, government spending, and, finally, net of exports. By far, consumer spending is the biggest factor in calculating GDP. All you need is a slight decline in consumer spending for GDP to fall.

And … Read More

The Economy: What Will Break the Camel’s Back This Year

By | April 22, 2014

Baltic Dry Index Collapses Again; Not a Good Sign for EconomyThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its growth forecast for the global economy. It says the world economy will now grow by 3.6% in 2014 and 3.9% in 2015; it grew at three percent in 2013. (Source: International Monetary Fund, April 8, 2014.)

I see the IMF forecast on global growth as being far too optimistic. In fact, I think we’d be lucky to get three percent growth in … Read More

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