Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

Posts Tagged ‘corporate profits’

How You Can Beat the Higher Taxes Coming Up

By for Profit Confidential

Beat the Higher Taxes Coming UpAs the realization that the political structure in America is steering far more leftward sets in, businesses and investors are beginning to fear the substantial increase in dividend and capital gains taxes. Many investors have been searching for dividend yield to sustain income due to the absence of adequate bond yields. This area of income generation, dividend yield, will most likely be hit extremely hard with the increase in tax rates. While corporate profits are at massive levels in absolute terms, the problem will be in delivering these gains to shareholders.

In lieu of raising the regular dividend yield, many corporations are looking to pay out their corporate profits in special, one-time dividend payments. The reason being that firms are looking to disperse corporate profits before the tax rates hit. If they were to simply raise the dividend yield, once the tax rates are increased, investors would lose a substantial amount of money to the government. By getting ahead of the dividend yield tax-rate hike with a special one-time payment, firms are able to disperse corporate profits using an advantageous method for investors.

wynn stock market chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

We’re already seeing this from several firms, such as Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ/WYNN). While Wynn Resorts has paid out a special dividend over the last few years, I think part of the impetus to do so this year is to take advantage of the current lower tax rates on the dividend yield. The one-time $5.00 payment will be dispersed on December 21 to shareholders of record on November 23. (Source: “Wynn Resorts Rises After Declaring $5 a Share Dividend,” Bloomberg, November … Read More

What Just Happened at Yahoo! That You Should Know About

By for Profit Confidential

Yahoo! That You Should Know AboutMarissa Mayer, the new CEO of Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ/YHOO), recently spoke about her plans for the future of the company. As we all know, technology stocks in this sector are constantly evolving. At one time, Yahoo! was a giant among technology stocks; those days have long since passed. Growth in corporate profits has been evasive for the firm, and Mayer took this opportunity to voice her opinion on where the company should be heading.

Mayer comes from Google Inc. (NASDAQ/GOOG) with an engineering background. She helped build the Google brand and, ultimately, drive corporate profits. While her success at Google is laudable, the long-term problems at Yahoo! still exist. To begin with, she’s announced a dramatically redesigned homepage. She believes that this, along with changes to the search and e-mail functions, will help attract more viewers to Yahoo! and, ultimately, raise corporate profits.

Her plan includes a greater focus on its mobile platform. All technology stocks and their investors are spending a lot of time scrutinizing mobile platforms. This segment will be a crucial push for the next leg of higher corporate profits. The number of smartphone users is growing, and this segment will be critical to the success of technology stocks over the next decade. Technology stocks that can’t convert users into corporate profits will most likely see their shares languish.

Mayer also spent some time discussing the need to attract talent. I’ve lamented on this topic before; once technology stocks start to fall behind, the best talent starts to leave. As innovation is the key driver for corporate profits growth in this industry, technology stocks need to be … Read More

A Chilling Indicator of What’s Ahead for the Economy

By for Profit Confidential

A Chilling Indicator of What’s Ahead for the EconomyEarlier this year, I introduced a popular key indicator—the Baltic Dry Index—that measures the shipping rates of transporting bulk dry commodities worldwide.

It is considered a key indicator because it gauges the demand of the basic raw material inputs that go into every factor of finished goods, building materials, and food.

This key indicator registers a high number when economies are strong because of strong demand for all commodities like zinc, iron ore, iron, steel, etc. In an economic slowdown, demand falls, and so do rates.

Due to the economic slowdown, in January of this year, this key indicator reached a 25-year low. Since then, the index has just continued to fall, and remains near its low. Since 2008, this key indictor has plunged 90%!

Here is the three-year chart, which is further evidence of a global economic slowdown:

 

bdi stock market ticker chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

During the economic boom—back in 2006-2007—the orders were flooding into the shipbuilders for new container ships to pick up and deliver all of these raw materials. The premise was that the boom was only going to continue.

After the financial crisis of 2008, the orders for new containers could not be cancelled, resulting in a glut of ships sitting empty or delivering goods for literally pennies…sometimes at a loss.

One of the last remnants of Britain’s industrial revolution, Stephenson Clarke Shipping, just went bankrupt after almost 300 years in business. (Source: The Telegraph, August 13, 2012.)

The company stated that while it was able to weather previous economic slowdowns, it found this current economic slowdown to be one of the worst in its … Read More

Dow Jones Transportation Index Signals Trouble Ahead

By for Profit Confidential

Dow Jones Transportation IndexIt is summertime, and you expect the trading action in the stock market to be subdued, but there’s a big divergence taking place, and it isn’t good. The Dow Jones Transportation Index is not confirming the primary trend of the Dow Jones Industrials or the S&P 500 Index. The divergence started in mid-July and follows a stock market with lackluster trading volume and poor breadth.

The Dow Jones Transportation Index reflects current fundamentals, more so than the other stock market averages, which have been going up on the hope for new action from the Federal Reserve. This is why I think the stock market is in the process of topping out. Unless we get a big boost inU.S. economic news or new monetary stimulus from the Fed, I don’t see how the stock market can advance further.

Since the beginning of June, the Dow Jones Industrials, the NASDAQ Composite, and the S&P 500 Index have all done well, albeit on low trading volume. But the divergence with the Dow Jones Transportation Index really bothers me, because many of the large-cap companies that make up the Dow Jones Transportation Index have been excellent stock market leaders for some time now. (See “The Top Stocks Making Money in This Market Right Now.”) If the divergence continues, this will be a bad technical signal.

With the Dow Jones Industrials over 13,000 and the S&P 500 Index at 1,400, I’d have to say that the stock market is fairly but fully valued. Corporate earnings have been exceptionally good, considering all the turmoil in the global economy, and it is difficult to see … Read More

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