Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

Posts Tagged ‘credit crisis’

Negative Interest Rates: They’re Here

By for Profit Confidential

What Happens When You Toy with Nature's Boom & Bust CyclesIn 2012, I predicted that if the Federal Reserve couldn’t get the economy growing again, it would take interest rates into the negative zone.

Well, yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB), the second-biggest central bank in the world, trumped the Fed and became the first major central bank to offer depositors negative interest rates.

What does “negative interest rates” mean?

Each night, major banks in the eurozone collectively deposit USD$1.0 trillion with the ECB. By cutting its overnight rate to negative, these banks will end up paying the ECB to hold their funds.

The ECB hopes that instead of getting a negative return on their money, the major banks in the eurozone will start lending their money out to borrowers, which will get the economy in the eurozone moving again.

This won’t work. Here’s why:

1)      Preservation of capital is the most important thing for banks in the eurozone. If they can deposit their $1.0 trillion with the ECB, even if they have to pay for the safekeeping, it’s a more secure move than lending money to businesses that are still far too risky because the eurozone economy is far too weak. The government regulation of opening and running a business in the eurozone is overwhelming.

2)      If the eurozone banks are getting a negative return on their money, how can they possibly pay savers a return on the money they have sitting in the bank? Yes, savers are punished once again with this latest central bank move.

3)      Smaller countries like Sweden and Denmark tried negative interest rates during 2009 and 2012; they didn’t work in stimulating those economies…. Read More

Double Bottom in for Gold Prices?

By for Profit Confidential

Gold Bullion Fear Index CollapsesWhile the Federal Reserve has cut back on its money printing program, the fact of the matter is that the “official” U.S. national debt is closing in on $18.0 trillion. The unofficial national debt (when obligations like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, welfare, and now Obamacare are taken into consideration) is closer to $200 trillion.

The Japanese national debt just hit one quadrillion yuan.

Many countries in the eurozone are drowning under debt. The European Central Bank recently started talking about printing money to finally get the eurozone out of its mess.

All of this is very well-known to Profit Confidential readers.

Why do I bring this up again today? I’m back focusing on debt because it is becoming more and more apparent that the only way to reduce the record national debt many industrialized countries have accumulated since the Credit Crisis of 2008 is to print even more money.

And the collapse in the volatility of gold bullion prices could be pointing to just that. To see what I’m talking about, take a look at this chart:

Volatility Index - CBOE Gold INDX ChartChart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

In April of 2013, when the sharp decline in gold bullion prices began, volatility for gold prices was very high. Since then, the volatility index for gold, an index that essentially gauges investors’ fear factor for gold bullion prices, has collapsed.

And when we look at the price chart of gold bullion (see next chart below), we see strong support for the metal just below the $1,200-an-ounce level. This level has been tested twice and on both occasions, gold failed to fall below $1,200. In technical analysis, this is … Read More

What the Collapse in Homebuilder Stocks Forewarns

By for Profit Confidential

Proof U.S. Housing Market Losing MomentumThe housing market that lured institutional investors in during 2012 and 2013 is showing signs of cracking.

Before I go into more detail, you have to keep in mind that affordability is the key to the housing market and affordability for housing only increases once home buyers’ wages increase. Right now, incomes in the U.S. economy are declining. And you can add to the problem the fact that mortgage rates have been rising, too, putting further pressure on affordability for home buyers.

Last week, the chief economist of the California Association of Realtors said, “Housing affordability is really taking a bite out of the market… We haven’t seen this issue since 2007.” (Source: “Southland home prices surge but sales plummet,” Los Angeles Times, April 15, 2014.)

Zillow, Inc. (NYSE/Z), a real estate information company, expects home values in more than 1,000 U.S. cities to be more expensive than ever within the year. The chief economist at the firm said, “The lows of the housing recession are becoming an increasingly distant memory as home values reach new highs and homes become more expensive than ever in many areas… As affordability worsens, more residents will be forced to search for affordable housing farther from urban job centers, and home values in some areas may have to come down.” (Source: “Home Values in More Than 1,000 U.S. Cities Expected to Be More Expensive than Ever Within the Next Year,” Zillow, Inc. web site, April 22, 2014.)

Don’t get me wrong. The U.S. housing market has definitely improved since the Credit Crisis of 2008. But, as I have been writing, it is not … Read More

Movie Tickets and New Homes: Why They Are Both in Trouble

By for Profit Confidential

The Untold Story of the Pinned-Down U.S. ConsumerIn 2013, consumer spending accounted for 67% of U.S. gross domestic product. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site, last accessed April 2, 2014.) It’s plain and simple: economic growth cannot be achieved unless consumers are spending.

And unfortunately, higher prices and lower discretionary spending are putting the brakes on consumer spending here in 2014.

The Motion Picture Association of America says box office sales in the U.S. economy came in at $10.9 billion in 2013—up only one percent from 2012 and up just three percent from 2009. But here comes the kicker: the sales increase was due to higher ticket prices. The number of tickets sold for Hollywood movies in 2013 was down 1.5% from 2012 and six percent from 2009! (Source: Motion Picture Association of America, Inc., March 25, 2014.)

And the U.S. housing market is getting into trouble, too, as consumer spending pulls back. The chart below is of new-home sales in the U.S. economy from the spring of 2012 until now.

Houses Sold - New One Family ChartChart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

You will quickly see from the chart that new-home sales in the U.S. economy peaked in late 2012/early 2013 and have come down since. Existing-home sales are also under stress and well below their post-Credit Crisis peak.

Why does the housing market matter? When homebuyers move into their new homes, they buy things like lawnmowers, appliances, furniture, and more. With home sales declining, it suggests consumer spending on these items will not be robust in 2014.

Dear reader, consumer spending patterns in the U.S. economy show troubling trends in the making. Sure, I talked today about how movie tickets … Read More

Why the Fed Will Have to Get Back into the Paper Money Printing Business Soon

By for Profit Confidential

U.S. Economic GrowthIn the early days of the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve said, “Job losses, declining equity and housing wealth and tight credit conditions have weighed on consumer sentiment and spending. Weaker sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories and fixed investment.” (Source: Federal Reserve, March 18, 2008.) As a result of this, the central bank came up with the idea of printing paper money to stimulate the economy; thus, “quantitative easing” was born.

Five years later, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has grown to $4.2 trillion. We also saw the U.S. government increase spending to stimulate the U.S. economy after the Credit Crisis of 2008. The U.S. national debt skyrocketed from around $9.0 trillion back then to over $17.0 trillion today.

With all this money being created (by the Fed) and borrowed (by the government), the logical assumption is that there’s finally economic growth in the U.S. economy.

Wrong!

Paper money printing by the Federal Reserve and out-of-control spending by the government hasn’t really given much of a boost to the U.S. economy (aside from the stock market bubble it has created). Problems still persist. The amount of paper money that has been printed out of thin air is huge—an unprecedented event in American history.

Now that the Federal Reserve is putting the brakes on quantitative easing (it will print less money each month), will we see businesses pull back on capital spending? Of course we will. When money is tight, businesses pull back on research and development, expansion, and acquisitions.

Consider this: since December of last year to this past … Read More

What a Loan Officer Would Say to the U.S. Government

By for Profit Confidential

Does the Size of Our National Debt Really Matter AnymoreFor a moment, consider yourself a loan officer at a major bank. Would you approve a loan for a customer who says they earn $1,000 a month, spend $1,300 a month, and don’t have a job? They also tell you they have unpaid debts of $17,000.

I don’t think anyone would authorize that kind of loan because the chances of getting the money back are next to zero. The individual spending more than he earns is a prime example of a financial disaster waiting to happen. It is unsustainable living; when someone does this, they break the most basic principles of Personal Finance 101.

So why does the U.S. government get away with it?

The United States Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service reported the budget deficit for the month of February was $194 billion. The U.S. government received $144 billion in revenues and spent $338 billion; the government spent 134% more than what it earned. (Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service, March 14, 2014.)

So far for fiscal year 2014 (which began in October of 2013), the U.S. government has incurred a budget deficit of $380 billion on revenues of $1.10 trillion and expenses of $1.48 trillion. Since the beginning of its current fiscal year, the government has been spending 34% more than what it takes in.

The U.S. national debt, which has now surpassed $17.0 trillion, has skyrocketed since the Credit Crisis of 2008.

There are two important facts about our rising national debt that don’t get a lot of mainstream attention (and I certainly don’t hear the politicians talking about them):

Point #1: … Read More

Why Is the U.S. Dollar Collapsing in Value All of a Sudden?

By for Profit Confidential

Whey the Fed May Need to Reverse its Decision to Cut Back on Money PrintingWhen news first broke from the Federal Reserve that it would slow down the pace of its quantitative easing program, the consensus was that the U.S. dollar would start to rise in value as the Fed would be printing fewer new dollars and actually eliminating all new paper money printing by the end of 2014.

But the opposite has happened.

Below, I present the chart of the U.S. Dollar Index, an index that compares the value of the dollar to other major world currencies.

US Dollar Index - Cash Settle (EOD) Ice ChartChart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

As the chart clearly shows, the dollar started on a strong downtrend in July of 2013. When I look at the dollar compared to individual currencies like the euro and British pound, the picture looks even worse.

The common belief since the Credit Crisis of 2008: when there’s uncertainty, investors run towards the safety of the U.S. dollar. But something started to happen in mid-2013. Despite China’s economic slowdown, despite the situation with Russia and Ukraine, and with the Federal Reserve cutting back substantially on its money printing program, one would think the U.S. dollar would rally in value—but the opposite is happening.

Two reasons why the greenback is falling in value so fast:

First, world central banks have been slowly selling the U.S. dollars they keep in their reserves, as the percentage of world central banks that use the dollar as their reserve currency has fallen from more than 70% in the year 2000 to just over 60% today.

Secondly, with the Japanese and Chinese reducing the amount of U.S. Treasuries they buy and with the Federal Reserve reducing the paper … Read More

Stock Prices and U.S. GDP; Historic Relationship Turns Bearish

By for Profit Confidential

Historic Relationship Tur​ns BearishIn the first five weeks of this year, investors bought $22.0 billion worth of long-term stock mutual funds. (Source: Investment Company Institute, February 12, 2014.)

But as investors poured money into the stock market, hoping to ride the 2013 wave of higher stock prices, stocks did the opposite and went down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down three percent so far this year.

Looking at the bigger picture, corporate earnings and key stock indices valuations are still stretched. The S&P 500’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 15.1. This ratio is currently overvalued by roughly nine percent when compared to its 10-year average, and 15% compared to its five-year average. (Source: FactSet, February 14, 2014.)

This isn’t the only indicator that says key stock indices have gotten too far ahead of themselves. In the chart below, I have plotted U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) against the S&P 500.

S&P 500 Large Cap Index ChartChart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

The chart clearly shows a direct relationship between GDP and the S&P 500. When U.S. GDP increases, the S&P 500 follows in the same direction, and vice versa. When we look at the 2008–2009 period (which I’ve circled in the chart above), we see that when GDP plunged, the S&P 500 followed in the same direction.

Going into 2014, we saw production in the U.S. economy decline; consumer spending is pulling back, unemployment is still an issue, and the global economy is slowing. U.S. GDP is far from growing at the rate it did after the Credit Crisis. Take another look at the chart above. In 2011, you’ll see U.S. GDP was very strong; but after … Read More

Ten Million People Left Out of Employment Statistics?

By for Profit Confidential

Three Reasons Why This Will Be a Bad Year for StocksAs I have been pointing out to my readers, the “official” unemployment numbers issued by the government are misleading because they do not include people who have given up looking for work and those people with part-time jobs who want full-time work.

In January, there were 3.6 million individuals in the U.S. economy who were long-term unemployed—out of work for more than six months. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 7, 2014.)

Those who are working part-time in the U.S. economy because they can’t find full-time work stood at 7.3 million people in January.

Add these two numbers into the equation and the real unemployment rate, often called the underemployment rate, is over 12%. Meanwhile, the official unemployment rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics sits at 6.6%—that’s the number you will hear politicians most often quote.

But if there’s a group of policymakers that looks past the “official” unemployment numbers, it’s the Federal Reserve.

At her speech before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives in Washington, D.C. last week, Fed Chief Janet Yellen said, “Those out of a job for more than six months continue to make up an unusually large fraction of the unemployed, and the number of people who are working part time but would prefer a full-time job remains very high. These observations underscore the importance of considering more than the unemployment rate when evaluating the condition of the U.S. labor market.” (Source: “Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,” Federal Reserve, February 11, 2014.)

Like all economists, Yellen knows that when an individual has a part-time job then their income isn’t as … Read More

The Great Squeeze Play

By for Profit Confidential

The Growing Disparity Between Corporate Profits and WagesAs more and more public companies warn about weak fourth-quarter corporate earnings reports, quite a number of them are resorting to the use of words like “corporate restructuring” or “cost cutting.” At the very core, these cost-cutting measures mean reducing the number of employees working at these companies.

Let’s face the facts: companies on key stock indices are struggling to keep revenue and profits rising. The share buyback “thing” is getting old (after all, how much money do these companies have to throw at stock buybacks?), so to show better corporate earnings, reducing work forces is the easiest thing to do.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE/WMT) says it plans to lay off 2,300 assistant managers and hourly employees at its Sam’s Club stores. (Source: CNBC, January 24, 2014.)

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) recently let go an unspecified number of employees at its Lake County headquarters. In the conference call to investors about its fourth-quarter corporate earnings, the CFO of the company simply said, “[the company] will take further actions to reduce out expenses… get our support structure at appropriate levels.” (Source: “Abbott Laboratories launches round of layoffs,” Chicago Tribune, January 28, 2014.)

And as I told you last week…

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ/INTC) said it will be reducing its workforce by 5,000 this year. Here’s what the company spokesman, Chris Kraeuter, had to say: “This is part of aligning our human resources to meet business needs.” (Source: “Intel to reduce global workforce by five percent in 2014,” Reuters, January 17, 2014.) Intel had flat fourth-quarter 2013 corporate earnings.

Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE/HPQ), another major company in the key stock indices, is taking a … Read More

Why I Fell Asleep Last Night During the State of the Union

By for Profit Confidential

The Borrower of Last ResortLast night started out like every other State of the Union address I’ve seen…

The President told us all the good stuff about the U.S. economy, like how American corporate profits are at a record high, how the stock market is at record highs, how millions of new jobs have been created since the Credit Crisis of 2008, how the housing market is turning around, and on and on.

Like a good old politician, Obama spun the facts to give the viewer the impression his Administration has done a great job at turning the U.S. economy around.

What Obama, who now has a very low 43% job approval rating (Source: CNN Breaking News alert, January 28, 2014.), didn’t say about the U.S. economy—and which no other politician likely would—is that:

None of his 2013 State of the Union “priorities” made it through Congress.

American corporations ended 2013 with the slowest earnings growth rate since 2009.

The stock market has become a Federal Reserve-induced bubble.

The majority of jobs created in the U.S. economy since the Credit Crisis have been in the low-paying sectors of the retail and service (restaurant) sectors.

A record 47.41 million Americans, or 23.05 million households, in the U.S. economy are using some form of food stamps (Source: United States Department of Agriculture, January 10, 2014.)

The number of first-time home buyers in the housing market is going the wrong way. In December, first-time home buyers accounted for a near-record low of only 27% of all the existing-home sales transactions. (Source: National Association of Realtors, January 23, 2014.)

Midway through the speech, I nodded off. I … Read More

The Company I Like Among the “Out-of-Favor” Stocks

By for Profit Confidential

Top Stocks for Investing Against the HeardWhen it comes to love, we often hear the phrase, “Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.” Well, the same could be said for the stock market.

Many investors look for the companies that deliver consistent results and satisfy the number-crunchers on Wall Street. While I belong to that group, I also take alternative views and search for companies that are the so-called dogs of the stock market. However, as our theme suggests, choosing in the stock market based only on a company’s outer appearance doesn’t always produce the best outcome.

Think about it this way: Why always select the stocks that are in favor by the stock market? Often, you may be the last to the dance, so you end up chasing stocks that have already made major stock market moves—the upside is limited.

I like looking at distressed companies that are facing some hurdles but have enough upside potential to make these stocks a worthwhile trade in the stock market. These plays are often referred to as contrarian investments—companies that are out of favor but have enough potential to demand a closer look in the stock market. In this case, you are often buying a company at a low valuation and price, as the stock market has turned against them.

I like these contrarian situations, as the potential upside is significant if these companies can turn around their operations.

In the past, I have highlighted opportunities such as Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ/GRPN) and Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ/FB)—both of which made spectacular gains thereafter. (Read “Why Macy’s Is Such a ‘Good’ Retail Play.”)

Nokia Corporation (NYSE/NOK) was … Read More

Why Are Car Sales Down So Much?

By for Profit Confidential

Soft Auto Sales Just the Beginning of a Poorer 2014All of a sudden, auto sales are declining…

Auto sales in the U.S. economy declined to an annual rate of 15.4 million units in December. In November, this number stood at 16.41 million units—a decline of more than six percent. (Source: Motor Intelligence, January 3, 2014.) Analysts were caught off guard by the decline in December auto sales; they were expecting an increase!

I see the decline in auto sales as being directly related to rising interest rates. And it’s not going to get any better.

For years now (since the Credit Crisis), auto sales have been increasing due to low interest rates. It’s very similar to what happened to the housing market prior to 2007. More and more people went on a house-buying spree when the mortgage rates were at record lows. When mortgage rates started to increase in 2007, the already-inflated housing market got hit hard. The same thing is happening to auto sales now.

Interest rates are rising again. Look at the chart below of the bellwether 10-year U.S. Treasury. Since November, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has gone up roughly 20%. The higher interest rates go, the weaker auto sales will get. (And we can already see the impact on the auto stocks. The stocks of America’s major car makers are off five percent from their 2013 peak, but key stock indices are near their peaks.)

10 Year Treasury Note Yield Chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Rising interest rates will have the biggest impact on auto loans given to subprime borrowers (those who have a lower credit standing).

My readers should note that the delinquency rates on auto loans … Read More

Small Pullback in Money Printing = Big Spike in Interest Rates?

By for Profit Confidential

Yield on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Doubles in Less Than Two YearsQuietly, without much fanfare or news, the bellwether 10-year U.S. Treasury hit a yield of 2.9% this past Friday—double what it yielded in June of 2012. (Source: Treasury.gov, last accessed December 20, 2013.)

Yes, the Federal Reserve only slightly pulled back on its money printing program and interest rates are already spiking.

And the standard 30-year mortgage rate hit 4.52% last week, up from 3.35% in November of 2012. Mortgage rates have increased by about a third in one year’s time. (Source: Freddie Mac web site, last accessed December 18, 2013.)

In the statement issued by the Federal Reserve last week, it said, “Beginning in January, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $40 billion per month rather than $45 billion per month.” (Source: Press Release, Federal Reserve, December 18, 2013.)

In other words, the Federal Reserve will continue to print $75.0 billion a month in new paper money as opposed to the $85.0 billion a month it used to print. If the Federal Reserve continues to print $75.0 billion a month through the year 2014, its balance sheet will grow by another $900 billion. Yes, by the end of 2014, we will be looking at a Federal Reserve balance sheet that shows close to $5.0 trillion in newly created money on it.

I’d like to end this year’s last editorial issue of Profit Confidential by communicating my most important message of the year.

All this printing of … Read More

Federal Reserve: 100 Years of Destroying the Purchase Power of Money?

By for Profit Confidential

100 Years of Destroying the Purchase Power of MoneyNearly 100 years ago, on December 23, 1913, the Federal Reserve was created. The central bank was created for many reasons, such as minimizing the impacts of panics, becoming a banker of last resort and “smoothing” economic cycles.

But along the way to keeping the monetary system stable, something happened: the value of money deteriorated.

What you could buy for $1.00 in 1913 costs $23.59 today. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics web site, last accessed December 11, 2013.) A simple calculation would show that prices have increased by 2,259% over the last 100 years.

Something else to ponder: there have been more erratic movements in inflation since the Federal Reserve was created than in the century prior to then, when the Fed didn’t exist! Since the Federal Reserve was born in 1913, there were 10 years when inflation in the U.S. economy came in at more than 10%. Between 1800 and 1912, there were only four years when inflation in the U.S. was greater than 10%. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis web site, last accessed December 11, 2013.)

“What’s your point, Michael?”

The unprecedented amount of paper money the Fed has created (out of thin air) since the Credit Crisis of 2008 will come back to haunt us—that’s my fear.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has grown to about $4.0 trillion. M2 money stock, that’s the supply of paper money in the U.S. economy, has gone up 27% since 2009. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site, last accessed December 11, 2013.)

And through its “quantitative easing” program, the Federal Reserve continues to print $85.0 billion per … Read More

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