Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

Dow Jones Industrial Average

What the Fear Index Is Telling Us About Stocks Now

By | October 17, 2014

Why This Stock Market Rout Is Here to StayOver the past few months, I warned my readers the stock market had become a risky place to be. While I also suggested euphoria could bring the market higher than most thought possible—to the point of irrationality—the bubble has now burst. Key stock indices are falling and fear among investors is rising quickly.

Please look at the chart below of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX). This … Read More

Why Stock Prices Will Continue to Fall

By | October 15, 2014

Stock Prices Will Continue to FallNow that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 1,035 points (six percent) from its mid-September peak, the question investors are asking is “how far will she go?” For small-cap investors, the drama is greater, as the Russell 2000 Index has fallen 12.5% from its July peak.

Since 2009, every market pullback presented investors with an opportunity to get back into stocks at discounted prices. Even some editors here at … Read More

The Nine-Month Check-Up

By | October 1, 2014

Nine-Month Check-UpWith nine months behind us this year, today we look at how two popular forms of investment have done in 2014 and where I think they are headed for the remainder of the year.

Starting with stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed yesterday up 2.8% for the year. Given the risk of the stock market, 2.8% is no big gain. I wrote at the beginning of 2014 that the … Read More

About That 500% Jump in Interest Rates…

By | September 22, 2014

Economy and Stock Market Handle a Five-Fold Jump in RatesThe verdict is in…

Last week, at the end of its regularly scheduled meeting, the Federal Reserve said:

1)      It would continue to reduce the amount of money it creates each month. The Fed said it will be out of the money printing business by the end of this year. By that time, the Federal Reserve will have created more than $4.0 trillion new American dollars (out of thin air)…. Read More

What This Company’s Earnings Say About the Broader Market

By | September 22, 2014

Company’s Earnings Say About the Broader MarketFedEx Corporation (FDX) just bounced off a new record-high on the stock market and is an important component of the Dow Jones Transportation Average.

In its fiscal first quarter of 2015 (ended August 31, 2014), the company’s sales and earnings surged. It was a great quarter and a strong indicator for the rest of the market.

Total revenues grew six percent to $11.7 billion. This may not sound like a … Read More

Eight Stocks to Beat the Street

By | September 5, 2014

How Investors Can Beat the StreetCountless stocks are pushing new highs and a lot of them are still blue chips. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is lagging the other indices this year, but this is not unusual.

The fact that many blue chips are still slogging higher is further indication of a bull market, despite all the shocks, risks, and the fact that stocks haven’t experienced a real correction for a number of years now…. Read More

History Repeats: Car Loans to People Who Don’t Qualify?

By | August 29, 2014

Sharp Rise in Auto Loan Delinquencies ConcerningBetween the first quarter of 2012 and the second quarter of 2014, auto sales in the U.S. economy have increased 16%. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site, last accessed August 21, 2014.) And auto sales this year have been stellar, too. In July, auto sales reached the highest level since 2007 and are up eight percent from this past January. (Source: Motor Intelligence, last accessed August … Read More

Feel Like You Are Missing Out?

By | August 27, 2014

Stock Market Correction Very HighIf you follow the financial news, it feels like the stock market is moving higher and higher…a situation in which investors often feel they are missing out.

But the reality of the situation is very different. So far this year, almost eight full months in, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up only three percent.

Would you buy stocks with the Dow Jones trading at 17,100, near a record-high price-to-earnings … Read More

Where I’d Put My Money Now

By | August 13, 2014

Annual Supply of World Gold ShrinkingAs gold bullion prices declined last year, I said supply would contract as gold miners pulled back on exploration and closed mines that were not profitable at $1,200-an-ounce gold.

For the supply of gold bullion to increase, there needs to be more discoveries. Sadly, the opposite is happening. According to SNL Metals & Mining, gold discoveries have been trending downward. In the 1990s, there were 124 new gold discoveries totaling … Read More

If the Economy Is Improving, Why Are Investors Pricing in a Slowdown?

By | August 11, 2014

U.S. Economy Slowing Down Here in 2014The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) surprised even the most optimistic of economists when it reported the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of four percent in the second quarter of 2014.

On the surface, the number—four percent growth—sounds great. But how serious should we take that gross domestic product (GDP) figure?

Firstly, I’d like to start by pointing out that the BEA often revises its GDP numbers downward. … Read More

« Older Entries