Dow Jones Transportation Index

The Stocks Making a Comeback in the Last Two Earnings Seasons

By Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Stocks Making a Comeback in the Last Two Earnings SeasonsWhat has been very encouraging over the last two earnings seasons is the strength we’re getting in small-cap technology companies (stock market action aside). A lot of smaller technology companies are reporting a significant improvement in revenues, and that means that consumers are opening up their wallets, if only just a little.

I’m not a fan of large-cap, retail technology stocks as stock market investments. Sure, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ/AAPL) is … Read More

First-Quarter Earnings the Catalyst for Correction?

By Tuesday, February 12, 2013

First-Quarter EarningsNo matter how you look at this stock market, the fact of the matter is that a lot of stocks are trading right at their all-time or 52-week highs on the back of mostly flat earnings. This makes it tough to be a buyer. In fact, I wouldn’t be a buyer in this market at all.

Sure, there are trades out there; there always are. And yes, stocks aren’t expensively … Read More

Things Are Looking Up! Let’s Hope They Don’t Wreck It

By Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Let’s Hope They Don’t Wreck ItI’ve been looking at all the earnings to date (they often aren’t a calendar quarter, but a fiscal quarter), and so far, I would say that the majority of companies are beating consensus expectations. Corporate earnings are definitely managed, but this is a good development. If the reduced earnings outlooks in the third quarter are partly responsible for the “outperformance,” then the revenues figures are the real good news. It’s … Read More

Earnings Season Is Here; Will the Numbers Be Kind?

By Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Earnings SeasonThere is positive momentum going into fourth-quarter earnings season. The earnings results we’ve had so far from brand-name large-caps are encouraging. We can’t forget, however, that expectations and consensus estimates have come down a lot, especially because of third-quarter earnings results. I think the stock market will be pleasantly surprised when it gets results from the key financial and technology stocks. Outperformance should be plentiful, but only because of the … Read More

Stock Market: All the Cards Have Been Played

By Friday, December 14, 2012

Stock Market: All the Cards Have Been PlayedOn the day of the Federal Reserve’s announcement regarding targeted low interest rates and a new bond-buying program, the stock market started out strong, only to sell off by the end of the day. This has happened countless times over the last couple of months, and it’s a sign that this market is tired. The stock market is finally seeing through the Federal Reserve, and investors now realize that no … Read More

Don’t Look at These Charts if You Expect Stocks to Rise

By Thursday, October 25, 2012

It wasn’t too long ago when the Dow Theory flashed a sell signal.

To reiterate, the Dow Theory simply states that in an uptrend, or downtrend, two popular stock indices must follow each other. For example, if the Dow Jones Transportation Index moves downward, the Dow Jones Industrial Average must follow in a similar direction for the overall trend to be considered down.

In these pages, on September 26, 2012, … Read More

Good News Is All in and the Sky Isn’t Falling…Yet

By Monday, October 22, 2012

Good News Is All in and the Sky Isn’t FallingOne of my biggest concerns about the stock market in recent history has been the lack of confirmation from the Dow Jones Transportation Index. This index hasn’t done a thing in the last five years, and even though it has recovered somewhat since the beginning of October, it has been in a slow, but definable, downtrend since February. I can see why some technology stocks hit new highs this summer, … Read More

Dow Theory Flashes Sell Signal

By Wednesday, September 26, 2012

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen more than 11%. And if I had to choose one reason to explain the rise in the world’s most followed stock market index, it is this: extreme (and unprecedented) money printing by the Federal Reserve and the hope that other foreign central banks will also print money. These are what have pushed stocks higher.

If you are familiar with technical analysis, then you … Read More

Is the Stock Market Where It Should Be After QE3?

By Thursday, September 20, 2012

business arrow diagramOn a lot of occasions, the stock market sells off on the reality of its expectations, but it hasn’t since the Federal Reserve announced a third round of quantitative easing (QE3). The main stock market indices are holding up very well, consolidating more so than selling off on the news. Stock market sentiment continues to be relatively positive, with some hope for the economic future and the expectation that third-quarter … Read More

Will the Stock Market Tank on Earnings Warnings?

By Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Earnings WarningsI don’t think the upcoming earnings season is going to be a bad one, but when FedEx Corporation (NYSE/FDX) says that the global economy is worsening, I pay attention. For its fiscal year, ended in May, the company lowered guidance for its earnings per share (EPS) range to $6.20–$6.60, down from the previous forecast of $6.90–$7.40 per share. FedEx is a member of the Dow Jones Transportation Index.

The company’s … Read More