Posts Tagged ‘earnings’
The stock market has an underlying strength to it, seemingly only to be undone by geopolitical events. Fed action always has the potential to shock the system. Negative economic news isn’t fazing this market.
On the back of a pretty decent second quarter, many corporate outlooks predict another year of decent growth, particularly with earnings.
While the stock market retrenched recently, positive days are still led by the Dow Jones Transportation Average, the Russell 2000 Index, and the NASDAQ components, which are traditionally positive for broader sentiment.
Some speculative fervor has come back to two stock market sectors that are traditionally volatile—biotechnology stocks and restaurant stocks.
But there really isn’t an underlying trend to latch onto. Jumping on the bandwagon of risky stocks seems unwise considering the stock market is at an all-time record-high.
This is a market where equity investors have to be highly selective and wait for the right opportunities to present themselves, if you’re considering new positions at all.
This can be in the form of a specific sector theme (like oil and gas, for example) or looking for good companies that have retrenched for their own specific reasons.
In any case, with the stock market at a record high, it’s difficult to find value, and new positions become entirely reliant on market momentum, not necessarily individual corporate achievement.
There are very few companies that I would consider now, but within the context of a long-term stock market portfolio, investors want their money to be put to work.
In equities, I still think that portfolio safety is the name of the game. This is a market that … Read More
Biotechnology stocks and the Russell 2000 began rolling over at the beginning of July, followed by transportation stocks at the end of the month.
It’s definitely a signal that the stock market is tired, but after such a strong breakout performance in 2013, the market still hasn’t experienced a material price correction in quite some time.
Second-quarter earnings came in mostly as expected and many blue-chip stocks sold off on good results, while companies backed existing full-year guidance. This happens often, as management teams try to make it easier for the company to “outperform” Street consensus. In a lot of cases, the only reason earnings per share advanced comparatively was increased share repurchases.
But it was mostly a decent earnings season and corporate balance sheets remain strong.
There’s not a lot of action to take in this market. Stocks have gone up tremendously and earnings are playing catch-up with valuations.
A little extra cash isn’t a bad thing with equities at their highs; however, finding good value with the prospect of growth in this market is becoming difficult.
I still think the domestic energy sector has a lot to offer investors, particularly those who are looking for income. Pipelines are a good business to be in as they throw off lots of cash and in many cases, revenues are not tied to the spot price of the underlying commodity.
With speculative fervor now reduced as evidenced by the trading action in biotechnology stocks, initial public offerings (IPOs), and select technology companies, it’s reasonable to expect the next couple of months to be pretty lackluster in terms of trading action. (September … Read More
The one thing a business can’t do is manufacture growth. An enterprise is at the whim of the marketplace and the economic conditions that are present. This doesn’t mean, however, that there aren’t very good businesses to own, even if they do experience the business cycle.
All companies go through periods of slower, sometimes negative business growth. Once having identified a really good business, the catalyst for ownership becomes valuation.
AAON, Inc. (AAON) is a micro-cap company based out of Tulsa, Oklahoma. This enterprise sells heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. It has a long track record of producing solid business growth and providing good capital gains on the stock market.
The company’s most recent quarter actually came in below consensus, but this is still a good enterprise to consider, as it is fairly valued.
Second-quarter sales were a record $92.3 million, but only grew 1.2% over the same quarter last year. Earnings were down 6.2% during the quarter, from $12.1 million to $11.4 million, comparatively.
Management noted that the increase in sales was mostly due to rising prices. The company finished the second quarter with lots of cash in the bank. The company is debt-free and expects full-year 2014 revenues and earnings to be stronger than last year.
As a business, AAON has a very good record of fairly consistent growth—and this is from the HVAC industry, which is mature and saturated.
The company’s first quarter of 2014 was very strong and contributed to a record first half of the year in terms of sales and earnings.
Another good business that’s very likely to keep producing good capital … Read More
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), which is one of my favorite long-term stocks for income and dividend-reinvesting investors, just dropped below the $100.00-per-share level and is becoming more attractive each day.
This stock has been doing extremely well over the last few years and should continue to do so. The position has been a worthy buy when it’s down and according to its recent trading history, it typically isn’t down for long.
If you’re a shareholder in this company or are considering a long-term position, you’ll want to take a look at the company’s recently filed Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Form 10-Q, which was submitted August 1.
This quarterly SEC filing reveals much more information over and above a company’s regular earnings press release. It gives a much better snapshot of a company’s financial position, where the sales are, which divisions are the most profitable, and where the company sees its operations in the near future.
In Johnson & Johnson’s recently filed Form 10-Q, the company’s overall profitability, that is its net earnings as a percentage of total sales, leapt higher from 20.7% to 24.1% in the first half of this year compared to last.
This is a huge accomplishment for a company this large and a major reason why stockholders should feel so confident about increasing dividends in the future, along with more share buybacks.
The company’s average common shares outstanding in the first half of 2014 dropped by approximately 3.3 million shares on a diluted basis compared to the same period last year.
Johnson & Johnson’s two-year stock chart is featured below.
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
Johnson & … Read More
The Dow Jones Transportation Average is close to breaking its 50-day simple moving average. This, in itself, is not the end of the world; it did so most recently in April and recovered nicely.
But it is worth keeping an eye on, especially because the stock market is looking so tired right now.
Earnings are still streaming in and are generally okay. But there’s diminishing momentum. If the broader market opens up on positive news, on many days, it’s not able to sustain the gains. This is indicative of a stock market due for a break.
Summer action is typically slower, and while a 10% stock market correction would make it easier to put new money to work, the investing guide should be corporate outlooks—and they are pretty good going into 2015.
With Federal Reserve certainty, which includes diminishing quantitative easing and a very low interest rate environment going into 2015, the stock market is well informed regarding monetary policy.
Balance sheets remain in excellent condition, especially among blue chips, and the NASDAQ Composite is maintaining its leadership relative to the other benchmarks, which resumed about one year ago.
While the stock market has definitely earned a meaningful break, it very well could turn out to be another positive year with high single-digit returns, not including dividends. This is on the back of an exceptionally good year in 2013—a breakout year from what I view as the previous long-run cycle, that being a 12-year recovery period for the stock market.
But with this fundamental backdrop, I still view investment risk as being high and that quality is something that equity … Read More
In what is on par with the course in today’s stock market, biotechnology firm Amgen Inc. (AMGN) posted double-digit revenue and earnings growth while raising its full-year outlook.
The kicker for this stock and its recent price strength was the news that the company plans to cut 12%–15% of its global workforce (2,400 to 2,900 employees) and close four of its facilities in Washington and Colorado. A lot of the job cuts will be to middle management, according to Amgen’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Form 8-K.
The company’s second-quarter sales grew 11% to $5.18 billion on strong sales and better margins on “ENBREL,” which is a treatment for arthritis. GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings grew 23% to $1.55 billion, while adjusted earnings per share grew 25% to $2.37.
On the back of such a strong earnings performance, you’d think the company would be hiring. But such is the marketplace with large corporations and large institutional investors.
Amgen has finally broken out of a 12-year price consolidation on the stock market and is set for more capital gains.
A share split wouldn’t be a surprise and the company is well positioned to provide shareholders with another dividend increase at the beginning of next year.
While Wall Street earnings estimates are going up for this company, I would say that a lot of good news (and drug development expectation) is built into the share price. Still, I don’t see Amgen as overpriced considering its business plan for the next few years. The company’s new restructuring plan is substantial and is likely to be rewarding to stockholders.
Healthcare-related stocks are proven … Read More
Good numbers are one thing, but stocks did go up in advance of what’s turning out to be a fairly decent earnings season.
It’s not unreasonable at all to expect the market to take a solid break, perhaps for the next two to three months. Of course, predicting corrections and/or consolidations among stocks is a difficult endeavor in an era of extreme monetary stimulus. The Federal Reserve is slowly chipping it away, but it remains very committed to helping capital markets, especially as the economic data continues to be pretty soft.
Stocks are still looking stretched and this market is tired. A 10% to 20% correction would be a healthy development for the longer-run trend. Stocks need a catalyst for this to happen. It could come out of nowhere, and I’m reluctant to be a buyer with so many positions trading at record-highs.
Johnson Controls, Inc. (JCI), a large U.S. auto parts manufacturer, had a modestly positive third fiscal quarter with sales growing three percent to $10.8 billion due to more sales in China.
The company had some one-time restructuring charges during the quarter. Earnings per share from continuing operations (excluding restructuring and one-time items) grew a hefty 17% to $0.84. Management confirmed its full-year guidance, which pleased the Street, but the position is breaking down a bit.
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company’s (DD) numbers were uninspiring and the company tried to keep investors interested with a four-percent increase to its quarterly dividend. The position’s starting to roll over and with agriculture being such an important part of the company’s business, changing preferences among farmers hurt its … Read More
Earlier this month, Jeremy Siegal, a well-known “bull” on CNBC, took to the airwaves to predict the Dow Jones Industrial Average would go beyond 18,000 by the end of this year. Acknowledging overpriced valuations on the key stock indices are being ignored, he argued historical valuations should be taken with a grain of salt and nothing more. (Source: CNBC, July 2, 2014.)
Sadly, it’s not only Jeremy Siegal who has this point of view. Many other stock advisors who were previously bearish have thrown in the towel and turned bullish towards key stock indices—regardless of what the historical stock market valuation tools are saying.
We are getting to the point where today’s mentality about key stock indices—the sheer bullish belief stocks will only move higher—has surpassed the optimism that was prevalent in the stock market in 2007, before stocks crashed.
At the very core, when you pull away the stock buyback programs and the Fed’s tapering of the money supply and interest rates, there is one main factor that drives key stock indices higher or lower: corporate earnings. So, for key stock indices to continue to make new highs, corporate profits need to rise.
But there are two blatant threats to companies in the key stock indices and the profits they generate.
First, the U.S. economy is very, very weak. While we saw negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) just downgraded its U.S. economic projection. The IMF now expects the U.S. economy to grow by just 1.7% in 2014. (Source: International Monetary Fund, July 24, 2014.) One more … Read More
It wasn’t too long ago that NIKE, Inc. (NKE) reported another great quarter of solid growth in its business.
The company’s fiscal fourth-quarter numbers beat Wall Street consensus, and its sales from continuing operations grew 11% to $7.4 billion, or 13% on a currency-neutral basis.
In this market, double-digit growth is significant no matter if it’s in the top or bottom line.
Like the last several earnings seasons, corporations are typically only beating consensus on one financial metric (either earnings or revenues). But this is enough to keep investors buying.
Under Armour, Inc. (UA) blew the doors off of Wall Street consensus and the stock shot strongly higher.
The company reported a surge in new apparel sales. Total revenues grew a whopping 34% over the second quarter of last year to $610 million.
Breaking it down, the company’s apparel revenues grew 35% to $420 million, while footwear sales grew 34% to $110 million on new product offerings. The company experienced significant sales growth of 30% in North America, while international sales doubled (representing approximately 10% of total revenues).
Previous guidance for 2014 was for sales growth of between 24% and 25% over 2013. Management boosted this guidance to between 28% and 29%, with operating income expected to grow between 29% and 30% over last year.
This time last year, Under Armour was trading around $35.00 per share. It’s doubled since then, and the position has further momentum in this market.
It is pricey, however, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of around 60. But the stock is likely to stay this way; the business has operational momentum, and that’s what … Read More
While business conditions are pretty good in the domestic oil and gas business, they’re also holding up very well in the railroad sector.
If railroad companies and related services are old economy, they are still important economic benchmarks and they continue to be great businesses producing excellent returns to stockholders.
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is an important company to follow, even if you aren’t interested in owning a position. What the company reports about its business conditions is material and helpful in advancing your own market view. Union Pacific reports on Thursday.
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) just hit an all-time record-high on the stock market. This time last year, the stock was around $77.00 a share; now, it’s close to $107.00.
CSX Corporation (CSX) is not as large in terms of market capitalization as Norfolk Southern or Union Pacific, but it is still a $31.0-billion company with extensive operations in the eastern United States and Canada.
Its second quarter of 2014 was a record quarter with sales growing seven percent to $3.2 billion on an eight-percent gain in volume.
Earnings growth was more modest, coming in at $529 million, or $0.53 per diluted share, compared to $521 million, or $0.51 per diluted share, for second quarter 2013. But management expects margin expansion going into 2015, and the Street wasn’t fazed.
Like so many other large-caps, the company is buying its own shares, including some $131 million worth during the most recent quarter.
By April of next year, the company will have spent $1.0 billion on share repurchases over the last two years.
Notably, CSX saw double-digit volume and revenue gains … Read More
One stock that’s experiencing serious upward price momentum is in the equipment rental business. Momentum stocks might typically be associated with other market sectors, but United Rentals, Inc. (URI) is doing fantastic operationally and the market is bidding.
It’s kind of odd to think of an equipment rental company soaring on the stock market, but United Rentals is doing just that. In its most recent quarter, the company handily beat Wall Street consensus and raised its full-year guidance.
According to the company, its second quarter produced sales of $1.4 billion, up 16.7% from $1.2 billion in the same quarter last year.
Management said that the company is experiencing solid demand in non-residential construction. It’s renting out more equipment at higher margins than normal.
Second-quarter earnings were $94.0 million, or $0.90 per diluted share, compared to $83.0 million, or $0.78 per diluted share, representing a gain of about 15%.
Adjusted earnings per share were $1.65 on a diluted basis, which was way above Wall Street consensus.
United Rentals is one of the largest equipment rental companies in the world, with more than 12,000 employees. The company is considered a mid-cap stock and has been doing extremely well since the middle of 2012, which you can see in the stock chart below.
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
Not only did United Rentals beat consensus, but it also raised its outlook for adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) and tightened its revenue range to $5.55–$5.65 billion for all of 2014, up from the previous outlook of $5.45–$5.55 billion.
Many companies do not have their SEC Form 10-Q documents ready when they … Read More
The numbers are still coming in pretty good this earnings season and corporate outlooks are holding up well for the year.
Stocks have been trading off of Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen’s monetary policy report to Congress, and less so on earnings.
This market is tired and you can see it in the trading action of individual stocks that beat the Street with their earnings. Most market reaction is pretty mute.
One that wasn’t, however, was Intel Corporation (INTC). The company’s second quarter really got institutional investors fired up. The stock was $26.00 a share mid-May; now it’s close to $34.00, which is a very big move for this company.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) doesn’t report until next week, but the company’s shares moved commensurately with Intel’s.
Earnings strength from these older technology benchmarks is really good news for both the stock market and the economy in general. It means that the enterprise market is spending money again, and that’s exactly what the technology industry needs.
Even Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) got a boost from Intel’s earnings results. This stock has been trying to break out of a long price consolidation. It hasn’t really done anything on the stock market since its bubble burst in 2000.
I actually view Microsoft as an attractive company for equity portfolios looking for higher-quality stocks.
The position is very fairly priced and offers a current dividend yield of just less than three percent. And management has a multifaceted business plan focused on growth in personal computers (PCs), the cloud, and devices.
But the best potential with a company like Microsoft is its prospects for … Read More
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