Posts Tagged ‘ECB’
If the Shanghai Composite Index Is a Leading Indicator, Watch Out!
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
Export-oriented provinces in the Chinese economy have turned pessimistic and anticipate exports will only grow at the rate of five percent this year. In 2012, they targeted an export growth rate of eight percent to 10%.
What’s troublesome about this is that exports from the Chinese economy account for 20% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). This means that, if exports from China to other countries decline, the Chinese economy will suffer an economic slowdown. (Source: Epoch Times, February 7, 2013.)
The Chinese economy has become fragile due to the economic slowdown in the global economy. Its biggest trading partner, the eurozone, is still suffering, while other areas have anemic demand.
As export volume falls in China, it is creating trouble for China’s manufacturing sector. The Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 50.4 in January from 50.6 in December of 2012. (Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, February 1, 2013.) A reading above 50 means expansion in manufacturing, while a reading below 50 means contraction. January’s reading is not far from the pivot point into manufacturing contraction.
Getting a read on the Chinese economy is not that easy. Some say statistics out of China are not that reliable. But here is the official word from the Chinese government: in the third quarter of 2012, GDP in the Chinese economy rose 7.4% from a year earlier—the slowest growth rate in three years. (Source: China Daily, December 30, 2012.)
While time and more data will make the picture clearer, with Chinese exports stumbling, a contraction in manufacturing activity could be next for the Chinese economy.
And it’s … Read More
No Quick Fix for Eurozone; a More Difficult Road Ahead
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
The eurozone credit crisis is taking center stage once again. As I have been saying in these pages, it is far from over, even though the European Central Bank (ECB) has announced that it will do “whatever it takes” to save the eurozone. Economic conditions in the region are still deteriorating.
The debt-infested countries in the eurozone are reaching their lows with widespread economic slowdown, but I am more concerned that the stronger nations are starting to show signs of struggle as well.
France, the second biggest economic hub in the region, is in a period of next to no growth. The country’s unemployment is higher than 10% and increasing. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects growth between 0.3% and 0.4% for the French economy this year. (Source: Wall Street Journal, February 12, 2013.)
In the fourth quarter of 2012, the eurozone countries saw the steepest quarterly decline in industrial production in more than three years. Industrial production in the eurozone declined 2.4% in the fourth quarter, compared to a meager increase of 0.2% in the third quarter—the sharpest decline since the first quarter of 2009. (Source: Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2013.)
Looking ahead, it seems the credit crisis in the region is there to stay. According to a study conducted by Ernst & Young, banks in the eurozone have a massive amount of bad loans sitting on their books. The auditing firm estimated that these bad loans make up a grand total of $1.23 trillion, or 7.6% of all the loans issued in the region. (Source: Deutsche Welle, February 11, 2013.)
Dear … Read More
Why the Media No Longer Talks About This Threat to the U.S. Economy
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
It seems the media has gone quiet about the eurozone credit crisis, as I don’t hear much about it these days in the mainstream news. Maybe they are relieved about the European Central Bank’s (ECB) announcement about its plan to do whatever it takes to save the eurozone—even if it includes printing more money.
Read it here and read it loud: the eurozone credit crisis is far from over. Its economic slowdown is only going to get worse.
The unemployment rate in the eurozone reached another high in November of 2012—11.8 % compared to 10.6% a year earlier. In October, the unemployment rate in the eurozone was 11.7%. (Source: Associated Press, January 8, 2013.)
Particularly hard hit has been Greece, as its unemployment rate hit a record 26.8% in October. The unemployment rate for youth aged 15 to 24 is 56.6%. A record 1.34 million Greeks are unemployed. (Source: ELAST, January 10, 2013.)
The stronger nations in the eurozone are weakening at an accelerated pace. Consider Germany. Factory orders there fell more than expected, down 1.8% in November of 2012 from October. (Source: Bloomberg, January 8, 2013.) Germany is a major economic hub of the eurozone, but it’s not safe from turmoil in the region.
My question: what happens to the eurozone economy if Germany deteriorates further? The eurozone is in a recession for the second time in four years.
The economic slowdown in the eurozone due to its credit crisis is more severe than it appears on the mainstream news. People are affected across the board. Birth rates are falling. In Portugal, the number of births in … Read More
Why U.S. Dollar’s Continued Fall Is Written in Stone
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
When the U.S. economy was on the verge of collapse after the financial crisis of 2008, the Federal Reserve came to the rescue. The central bank provided the financial system with quantitative easing—it printed money and bought bad debt from the big banks.
Today, the Federal Reserve will meet and discuss the further purchase of bad debt from the big banks or some other form of monetary stimulus. To me, it won’t be a surprise to see it “add” to its balance sheet with more money creation. The Federal Reserve already announced three rounds of quantitative easing; I highly doubt it will be shy to announce more.
What is troublesome to me is the speed at which the Federal Reserve is building its balance sheet. In January of 2008, the Federal Reserve had total assets of $927 billion—before quantitative easing and other stimulus poured into the markets. (Source: Federal Reserve, January 3, 2008.) Now, the same balance sheet stands at $2.9 trillion. (Source: Federal Reserve, December 6, 2012.)
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has grown by almost $2.0 trillion—200% in less than five years all from money created out of thin air!
One goal of the Federal Reserve was to buy mortgage-backed securities to stimulate the economy, and then to start selling the mortgage-backed securities back into the market in mid-2015. (Source: Bloomberg, December 7, 2012.) This way the central bank is not stuck with these securities while it gets back to its “pre-crisis balance sheet.” I wonder if we will ever really see this happen.
My concern? Quantitative easing has caused the U.S. dollar to decline steadily. Like … Read More
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