Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

economic analysis

Why U.S. GDP Contracted for First Time in 3.5 Years

By | February 4, 2013

U.S. GDP Contracted for First Time in 3.5 Years(Make sure to read my important comments today about the stock market in “Where the Market Stands; Where it’s Headed” below.)

The U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), contracted in the fourth quarter of 2012 for the first time in three and a half years. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. GDP “unexpectedly” declined 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2012 from the third quarter. … Read More

Auto Sector Growth Slows in
China, but Market Still Massive

By | June 28, 2012

China’s Auto SectorThe key to China’s economic progress will be the rapid growth of the country’s middle class. In a research finding, Credit Suisse predicted that the household wealth in the country will double to $35.0 trillion by around 2015, based on achieving sustainable GDP growth at or near the current growth rate.

The economic analysis is simple; the extra renminbi mean more cash to spend on non-essential goods and services. This … Read More

Headed Towards the Fifth Straight
Year of Trillion-dollar Deficits

By | March 23, 2012

Trillion-dollar DeficitsAs it stands, on January 1, 2013, tax benefits to consumers and businesses and government spending increases—which includes extended unemployment benefits—are set to expire.

These incentives that helped the economy “rebound” from the crisis add up to roughly $433 billion or approximately 2.9% of GDP (source: Bloomberg).

For the first quarter of 2012, Lombardi Financial believes that U.S. GDP growth is likely to come in well under two percent. For … Read More

Consumer Debt Growing Again;
This Time Not by Choice

By | February 13, 2012

michael lombardi economic analysisConsumers just can’t stop spending…

U.S. consumer debt levels increased by $19.3 billion in December, after November’s steep rise of $20.0 billion, bringing total consumer credit in 2011 in the U.S. to $2.5 trillion (source: Federal Reserve).

Some economists are hailing this as a sign that economic growth is on the rebound, due to the consumer exhibiting confidence by taking on more debt.

Normally, in times of economic growth, income … Read More

What They Didn’t Tell You in
Friday’s Job Numbers Report

By | February 6, 2012

economic slowdownGreat news on the unemployment numbers last week? That was the message from many politicians and the popular media on Friday. But let’s take our usual closer look…

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the U.S. created 243,000 jobs in January 2012, causing the unemployment rate to fall to a level not seen since February 2009: 8.3%.

The job numbers came in better than estimates; the best … Read More

Top Five Reasons Why Gold Bullion Prices Will Move Even Higher

By | November 9, 2011

Michael Lombardi’s top five reasons why gold bullion prices will move even higher.“Considering gold bullion has gone up about 500% since 2001, how can we be so sure gold bullion in not in a bubble?” This is a common question we hear from new PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL readers.

Here are our top five reasons why we believe gold bullion prices, far from being in a bubble, have much higher to move. (Also see: Answered: Can I Still Make Money Buying Gold Now?)… Read More

The Strongest Indication Yet That
Stocks Are Short-term Oversold

By | October 13, 2011

Without getting too technical, investors have two ways to bet on the price direction of stocks. They can go “long” the market, which means they believe that stock prices will rise. Or they can go “short” the market, which means they are betting that stock prices will fall. Going “long” is easy; all investors need to do is buy stocks. And usually, when investors have a strong general consensus that the stock market will move higher, like they last did in October of 2007, stock prices go the opposite way and fall.

Stock Market, Housing Market, GDP Growth: It’s All About Consumer Confidence

By | September 28, 2011

Christmas is still three months away, but you know retailers are nervous about the ability of consumers to want to spend. How consumers spend will likely tell us how the economy will fare in 2012 and will help to drive the stock market. With consumer spending accounting for about 70% of the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in this country, it will be critical for consumers to spend. And let's not forget the housing market.Christmas is still three months away, but you know retailers are nervous about the ability of consumers to want to spend. How consumers spend will likely tell us how the economy will fare in 2012 and will help to drive the stock market. With consumer spending accounting for about 70% of the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in this country, it will be critical for consumers to spend.

When consumer … Read More

Spending Remains an Issue;
My Advice on Retail Investing

By | September 19, 2011

The fact that consumer spending has not tanked in spite of unemployment being at over nine percent and expected to stay around this level through 2012, and continued weakness in housing is encouraging.

Inflation at Almost 5%…Is It Any Wonder
Dollars Buy Less and Less?

By | September 19, 2011

Gold prices rising for 10 years straight…the money supply greatly expanded…the printing press for dollars running overtime…am I the only one concerned about rapid inflation? I rarely read or hear a report talking about today’s rising prices or the hyperinflation we may sustain in the years ahead. We all know prices are rising—only housing prices have remained low. Inflation is real and it is here now.

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