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Economic Analysis

U.S. Economy Collapse in 2016? It’s Possible. A U.S. economic collapse in 2016? Is it possible that the world’s biggest economy will face its biggest challenge next year? While most talking heads on Wall Street think the U.S. is heading in the right direction, the fact of the…

China is in deep trouble. Economic activity in the second-biggest economy is plunging and it looks like the situation is only going to get worse. The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing Purchasing Mangers’ Index (PMI), an indicator of manufacturing activity, now stands at 47.8—the lowest level in more…

The global economy is headed towards an economic slowdown and it will take U.S. stock prices down with it. The growth rates of major economies are anemic. China is growing at its slowest pace in two decades, putting pressure on Australia’s economy. Japan has been going in and…

On Wednesday, June 3, 2015, the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), through the Department of Commerce, reported the trade balance for the month of April. Results show that the trade deficit shrank more than expected. (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, June 3,…

On Tuesday, June 2, 2015, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Lael Brainard said that current economic data does not suggest that the U.S. will see a significant second-quarter rebound. She also stated that a strong dollar delays U.S. interest rates to nominal levels.…

May 13, 2015 was a busy day for the release of European economic results. How did the European economy fare and how do these numbers affect U.S. companies? Forecasts, for the European economy as a whole, call for the region to muddle through a “mild cyclical upswing” driven…

On May 5, 2015, the European Commission released its spring 2015 European Economic Forecast. According to the forecasts, growth prospects haven’t been better in years. Will cheap oil and a devalued Euro help Europe overcome its biggest obstacle? Economic Outlook in Europe The latest economic forecast for Europe…

For most of 2015, I have been writing about how the U.S. economy is growing at a very slow pace, if it’s growing at all. The just-released U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) numbers for the first quarter of 2015 confirm this; the economy grew at an annual pace…

The oil price forecast for 2015 continues to be dominated by the actions of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). And its fierce rival, the U.S. Supply, continues to outweigh demand. But oil drifts higher. Where will prices go from here? Oil Price Forecast 2015: Supply vs.…

Since the credit crisis of 2008, the policies of the Federal Reserve have spurred immense financial inequality in the U.S. Those individuals (a very small minority) who were able to take advantage of the monetary policies of the Fed have done extremely well in expanding their wealth. But…

At the height of the Cold War, the biggest concern was the global destruction associated with launching nuclear weapons. Fast-forward 50 years and not much has changed. At the height of the money-printing war, the biggest concern is the global destruction associated with launching higher U.S. interest rates.…

Irrationality prevails in global stock markets and I believe it’s because of the actions of central banks. What’s happening with central banks and their involvement with equity markets not only is unprecedented, but it also will not end well. Japanese Stock Market Topping 20,000 Just look at the…

If you think the U.S. economy is improving, this story says that, truth be told, it’s the complete opposite for the economy, as recent data suggest there is no growth. U.S. Economy’s Jobs Market Tormented In March of this year, only 126,000 jobs were added to the U.S.…

Don’t be fooled by what you hear from the mainstream media and the politicians. The U.S. economy continues to struggle. In fact, looking at the economic data closely, it suggests we are headed for an outright slowdown. U.S. Economy to Be Fine Without Consumer Spending? Consumer spending makes…

The U.S. Department of Labor released its latest weekly unemployment insurance claims data on March 26, 2015. Seasonally adjusted U.S. jobless claims fell again to 282,000, their lowest level since mid-February, and have been in decline since their peak level of 665,000 claims in March of 2009. Despite…

With the U.S. government forecast to incur budget deficits year-over-year through to 2025, our rising national debt is turning into a debt crisis that will have long-term negative effects on our economy and currency valuation. In particular, two ticking debt time bombs are lurking nearby. Official National Debt…

Let’s get right to it: the Canadian dollar faces serious headwinds—largely due to lower oil prices and a weakening economy. My forecast for the Canadian dollar in 2015 calls for continued weakness and potential for further downside. Canadian Dollar Outlook 2015: The Technical Take How times have changed.…

Don’t buy into the false optimism. While the mainstream media and economists are convinced there’s prosperity, I am concerned the U.S. economy will enter a recession in late 2015 or early 2016. The simple fact is that consumer spending is the biggest factor driving the U.S. economy, and…