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Economic Slowdown

This Could Send Silver Prices Skyrocketing Silver prices are getting hammered, down for the last 13 sessions, which is the precious metal’s longest losing streak since 1950. Currently trading near $14.15 an ounce, silver prices are down 10% year-to-date and 72% off their high near $50.00, which was…

The good thing about the Federal Reserve is that it publically discloses its balance sheet. And from its balance sheet, we can see the Fed has created about $3.5 trillion in new money after the credit crisis of 2008 to stimulate the economy. The problem with the central…

U.S. economic data is very clear: we’re headed towards a recession, if we’re not already in one. There are three key indicators I closely follow that presently paint a gruesome picture of the U.S. economy: consumer confidence, manufacturing statistics, and business conditions as tracked by regional Federal Reserve…

It wasn’t too long ago that the Federal Reserve told us it expected the U.S. economy to grow by three percent on average, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP). After all, with years of historically low interest rates and trillions of new dollars printed, that’s the least…

For months, I have written in these pages about how the slowing global economy would wash ashore to America and infect our own companies. I posted repeated charts in Profit Confidential that showed leading indicators like the Baltic Dry Index and copper prices were collapsing, foretelling of poor…

China is in deep trouble. Economic activity in the second-biggest economy is plunging and it looks like the situation is only going to get worse. The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing Purchasing Mangers’ Index (PMI), an indicator of manufacturing activity, now stands at 47.8—the lowest level in more…

Early this year, I started writing about how falling copper prices were a leading indicator of trouble in the global economy. Since then, we’ve all come to know about the economic slowdown in China. But the further collapse in copper prices over the past three months could be…

No matter where you look, major economic hubs in the global economy are struggling to show growth. According to the German finance ministry, Germany’s economy grew at only 0.3% in the second quarter of this year after growing a similar amount in the first quarter. (Source: Reuters, July…

In June, retail and food service sales in the U.S. economy declined 0.3% from May. When calculating these sales figures, the Census Bureau looks at 13 different kinds of businesses. In June, seven of those business types reported an outright decline in sales. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, July…

The global economy is headed towards an economic slowdown and it will take U.S. stock prices down with it. The growth rates of major economies are anemic. China is growing at its slowest pace in two decades, putting pressure on Australia’s economy. Japan has been going in and…

According to a study by Economic Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, between 2009 and 2014, the salaries of CEOs at the largest U.S. companies increased by 54.3%. (Source: Economic Policy Institute, June 22,2015.) But the average American hasn’t done that well. Between 2009 and 2013, median U.S.…

To gauge activity in the global economy, I follow two indicators very closely: how sales at multinational Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE/CAT) are faring; and trade activity in the global economy. Global Economy Indicator #1 The chart below plots the percentage change in three months rolling sales at Caterpillar Inc.,…

Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in the month of May, 280,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy. The unemployment rate was unchanged and stood at 5.5%. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 5, 2015.) If you just look at the current unemployment…

With 20 central banks indicating they may lower interest rates even further, a world economic slowdown underway, and bellwether copper prices collapsing, U.S. multinational companies (and their stock prices) will not escape the malaise facing the global economy. Central Banks Concerned Regarding Global Economic Slowdown? The mainstream media…

To see where the global economy is headed, I follow the prices of oil and copper. The prices of these commodities tell us about demand in the global economy. If the prices of oil and copper are rising, it means there’s prosperity. If the opposite occurs, it means…

Now that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 1,035 points (six percent) from its mid-September peak, the question investors are asking is “how far will she go?” For small-cap investors, the drama is greater, as the Russell 2000 Index has fallen 12.5% from its July peak. Since…

So the S&P 500 has touched the 2,000 mark. Will the S&P 500 continue to march to new highs? Well, my opinion towards the stock market hasn’t changed. I remain skeptical for a variety of reasons, many of which I have shared with my readers over the past…

Not too long ago, I reported that Italy, the third-biggest economy in the eurozone, had fallen back into recession. Now Germany’s economy is pulling back. In the second quarter of 2014, the largest economy in the eurozone witnessed a decline in its gross domestic product (GDP)—the first decline…

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) surprised even the most optimistic of economists when it reported the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of four percent in the second quarter of 2014. On the surface, the number—four percent growth—sounds great. But how serious should we take that…