Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

european economy

April 2012 Devastating for Retailers

By | May 10, 2012

consumer confidenceJust how bad is it getting out there?

There is no question that the U.S. east coast just experienced the warmest winter in decades. And, as a result, shoppers who were normally held back by cold weather were free to visit their favorite local store to shop and the retail sector welcomed them with open arms.

As strong retail sales—when compared to the previous year when we actually had a … Read More

Social Government in France: A Wrench in the Plans

By | May 10, 2012

Germany has lost its dance partner…

Francois Hollande is France’s first elected socialist president in 17 years. He has stated that he will reduce the government’s budget deficit while increasing taxes and increasing spending. He believes he can eliminate the budget deficit by 2017.

Just the kind of guy France needs…

Because of the European economy’s recession, France’s budget deficit is already worse than it was a year ago because … Read More

Quarterly Earnings Shocker from a High-tech Leader

By | January 23, 2012

Quarterly Earnings Shocker from a High-tech LeaderWe just had a buffet of quarterly earnings releases from some of the largest technology firms: Google Inc. (NASDAQ/GOOG); Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ/MSFT); Intel Corporation (NASDAQ/INTC); and International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE/IBM).

Following the release, three out of the four firms’ stocks were up. Would you be surprised to learn that it was Google that disappointed investors with their quarterly earnings release? Investors have sold the stock hard; now down over … Read More

Two Major Eurozone Countries to Fall Back into Recession in 2012

By | January 4, 2012

Two big eurozone countries are headed back to recession this year.

Spain, the eurozone’s fourth largest economy, will fall back into recession in early 2012, according to a statement made by its Economy Minister.Spainhas the highest unemployment rate in the eurozone at a staggering 21.5%.Spainand its citizens are in real trouble.

Italy, the third largest eurozone economy, will also be technically in a recession in the first half of 2012. … Read More

Will This Be Lucky Year Number 12?

By | January 4, 2012

The year 2011 marked the 11th consecutive year that gold bullion prices closed the year higher than they started. Here’s the closing price for gold bullion each year since 2000:

2000 – $273.00      2006 – $638.00
2001 – $279.00      2007 – $838.00
2002 – $348.00      2008 – $884.00
2003 – $416.00      2009 – $1,092
2004 – $438.00      2010 – $1,405
2005 – $520.00      2011 – $1,530

To answer the question, … Read More

Stock Market: What Could Jump
Start a New Short-term Trend

By | December 21, 2011

If the U.S. stock market is going to advance in any meaningful way, then it’s going to have to do so based on domestic economic news, to the exclusion of what’s happening in Europe and China. The eurozone debt crisis is a very real risk to the global economy and so is China’s declining economic news, but, at the end of the day, the only way the U.S. stock market … Read More

Steep Bets Against Euro May Backfire

By | December 7, 2011

When everyone is on the bandwagon, that’s the time to get off… According to a report from the CFTC, short positions against the euro were at net $14.4 billion in the third week of November—a 17-month high. Seems everyone is betting against the eurozone and, with such a heavy consensus trade, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the trade—short euros against the U.S. dollar—backfire.

Europe’s Debt Crisis Continues to Pound Domestic Investor Sentiment—Who Has the Power Now?

By | November 11, 2011

It’s not a good situation to have your own domestic investor sentiment strongly influenced by the reality in an economy that’s far away. The U.S. stock market is at the point now where it could be making real gains based on its own solid corporate fundamentals.The debt crisis in Europe continues to be a thorn in the side of domestic stock market investors and, to be very frank, the richer European countries are getting fed up with the less well managed countries that created the debt crisis on their own. From my perspective, I think that U.S. institutional stock market investors are attributing too much credence to Europe’s story—it’s a debt crisis that only Europeans … Read More

Reduced Expectations & Consolidating Capital Markets—the Mediocrity Remains

By | October 19, 2011

Investment guidance is going down at this time and it’s certainly a reflection of slower economic growth at home and abroad. While China still remains a powerhouse emerging market, its monetary policy to slow down the economy is working. Investment guidance from domestic corporations that have reported so far in this third-quarter earnings season is mirroring what Wall Street has been doing—revising 2012 earnings guidance a little bit lower. While the current state of things remains very fragile, the stock market hasn’t broken down. The main stock market averages have experienced a meaningful correction and they are trading range-bound. You can see this quite easily in the S&P 500 Index, but also the Dow Jones Transportation Index, which remains one of the key indicators for the broader market. It’s very difficult for the rest of the stock market to advance without transportation stocks leading the way.

The Correction Within the Current Bear
Market Rally: Will It End Soon?

By | October 17, 2011

And so the S&P 500 Index is trading right around a key resistance level of 1,220 and, if it can prove to hold above this level, this could be the breakout the market’s been needing. It’s been a tough go for the stock market over the last several weeks and we’re due for a little upside.

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