Posts Tagged ‘gold bullion’
Whenever I got stuck solving a problem in elementary school, my teacher would say, “go back and see where you went wrong.” This lesson—“learn from your mistakes”—was taught again in high school, and then throughout my life. It’s very simple: you can’t do the same thing over and over again and expect different results. Albert Einstein called it “insanity.”
When I look at the Japanese economy, I see the most basic lesson you learn in business school being ignored. The Bank of Japan, and the government, in an effort to improve the Japanese economy has resorted to money printing (quantitative easing) over and over, failing each time to spur growth. One might call it an act of insanity.
Through quantitative easing, the central bank of Japan wanted to boost the Japanese economy. It hoped that pushing more exports to the global economy from its manufacturers would change the fate of the country. It wanted inflation as well.
The result: after years of quantitative easing, the government and the central bank have outright failed to revive the Japanese economy. In fact, the opposite of their original plan is happening.
In January, the trade deficit in the Japanese economy grew—the country’s imports were more than its exports. Imports amounted to 7.70 trillion yen and exports were only 5.88 trillion yen. The trade deficit was 3.5% greater compared to the previous month. (Source: Japanese Customers web site, last accessed February 20, 2014.) Mind you, January wasn’t the only month when imports were more than exports in the Japanese economy. This is something that has been happening for some time.
Inflation in the … Read More
In 2013, the U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), rose at an average rate of 1.9% compared to 2.8% in 2012. And as it stands, GDP may slow further in 2014.
What makes me think this?
In January, U.S. industrial production declined by 0.3% from the previous month. This was the first decline in production since August of 2013. Production of automotive products in the U.S. economy declined by 5.15%, and appliances, furniture, and carpeting production declined by 0.6% in the month. (Source: Federal Reserve, February 14, 2014.)
And factories in the U.S. economy just aren’t as busy as they used to be. The capacity utilization rate, a measure of companies using their potential production, was 78.5% in January. The average rate between 1979 and 2013 has been 80.1%. While a difference of two percent in factory utilization isn’t a big number, because overhead is often fixed in factories, a two-percent decline in production is a big deal.
Then there’s the inventory problem; inventories in the U.S. economy continue to increase. In December, inventories at manufacturers increased by another 0.5% to $1.7 trillion. From December 2012, they have increased by 4.4%. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, February 14, 2014.)
We have a situation in the U.S. economy today where factories are working at lower capacity than they have historically, while business inventories are rising—two bad omens for the economy; hence, you can see why I’m concerned about economic growth in 2014.
It’s a domino effect…
Inventories increasing suggest consumer demand is stalling. Examples of consumer spending declining in the U.S. economy are many. As I have … Read More
Fasten your seatbelt, dear reader. We’re in for a global financial crisis, a currency fiasco, and a stock market collapse all in the same year!
I’m being too bearish? Not after you read this…
In their search for economic growth in 2009, the Federal Reserve and other major central banks in the global economy started lowering interest rates and printing paper money.
While the central banks of the world wanted economic growth, they inadvertently created the “trade” for big investors like financial institutions and banks. I talked about this last Friday. (See “Stock Market: The Great Collapse Back to Reality Begins.”)
The “trade” had investors borrowing money from low interest rate countries and buying bonds in high interest rate countries, pocketing the spread. In the world of finance, this is often referred to as the “carry trade.” It works as long as the currencies of the low interest rate country and the higher interest rate country stay stable.
But now, the “trade” is backfiring as the currencies of emerging markets go into free fall.
China, the biggest economy in the emerging markets and second-biggest in the global economy, got most of the “trade” money. According to the Bank for International Settlements, in 2013, foreign currency loans and borrowing by Chinese companies from other countries was close to a trillion dollars. In 2009, it was only $270 billion. (Source: Telegraph, February 1, 2014.)
European banks have the biggest exposure to emerging markets, having lent them $3.0 trillion. Breaking down this number even further, British banks have loaned $518 billion to the emerging markets; Spanish banks come in second … Read More
I have said it many times: central banks will be the major drivers of gold bullion prices going forward. Countries like China and Russia will need more of the yellow metal, because they simply don’t have enough in their reserves compared to the United States, France, Germany, or Italy (the four central banks with the biggest gold bullion reserves).
A news story that ran last week in the Shanghai Daily said the People’s Bank of China is expected to announce it has more than doubled its gold bullion reserves—from 1,054 tons to 2,710 tons. The article explained that China’s central bank bought about the same amount of gold in 2013 that it did during the years from 2009 through to 2011 combined! (Source: Shanghai Daily, January 17, 2014.)
Yes, I hear the stories of how gold prices are being manipulated. But how long can the manipulation—if it really does exist—go on in light of such aggressive gold buying from central banks like China’s?
In 2013, the Bundesbank, the central bank of Germany, said it would like to bring half of its gold bullion stored at the central bank of France and the U.S. Federal Reserve back to Germany. This amounts to 674 tons. But Germany was told it would take seven years to get the gold back to Germany!
In 2013, only 37 tons of the gold bullion came back to the Bundesbank: five tons came from the Federal Reserve and the rest came from France. (Source: Kitco News, January 20, 2014.) So where’s the gold? If the Bundesbank is bringing back only five percent of its gold each … Read More
I keep telling you about my suspicion that the backbone of any stock market—corporate earnings growth—is disappearing. Now, we see it in the numbers…
Of the 106 companies in the S&P 500 that have issued corporate earnings guidance for the fourth quarter, an astounding 94 of them have issued negative guidance—that’s 89% of the companies issuing guidance, warning it will be negative, which is well above the five-year average rate of 63%. (Source: FactSet, December 13, 2013.)
And analysts continue to drop their expectations for corporate earnings growth for the fourth quarter. As of September 30, analysts expected fourth-quarter corporate earnings growth in the current quarter would be 9.5%. By last week, that rate had come down to 6.5%. (Source: Ibid.) I expect corporate earnings growth for the fourth quarter will continue to disappear.
So we have 2013 ending with the smallest increase in corporate earnings since 2009. How can 2014 be any better?
The risks that disappearing corporate earnings growth creates for the key stock indices continue to be ignored. And problems in the global economy are mounting, not improving, with each passing day.
Economic growth in China, the second-biggest economic hub in the global economy, is declining rapidly. The country is expected to post a growth rate this year that is “embarrassingly” low compared to China’s historical economic growth rate. Manufacturing activity in the country is rapidly declining. The HSBS Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to a three-month low in December. (Source: Markit, December 16, 2013.)
We are seeing an economic slowdown in the stronger eurozone nations like France. In December, manufacturing activity in this … Read More
Profit Confidential — IT'S FREE!
"A Golden Opportunity for Stock Market Investors"