home prices

U.S. Housing Market: 7.44 Million Reasons to Be Skeptical

By Monday, August 10, 2015
U.S. Housing MarketWe are seeing momentum in the real estate market dissipate—this is something readers of Profit Confidential shouldn’t be surprised about, as I have been predicting problems ahead for the housing market. In fact, I won’t be surprised if 2015 is the first year home prices decline since our last drop in housing prices in 2011. Please look at the chart of the S&P Case-Shiller Index below. S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Chart Chart Courtesy of www.StockCharts.com.

House Prices to Decline in 2015?

By Monday, September 15, 2014
House Prices to Decline in 2015As we progress to the end of 2014, my skepticism towards the U.S. housing market increases. In fact, the fate of home prices in 2015 is in question. I don’t expect an outright collapse of the housing market like the one we saw in 2007, but I see the momentum in housing prices that began in 2012 and picked up in 2013 dissipating for several reasons. First, according to Fannie .

Surprise: U.S. Housing Prices Now in a Decline

By Monday, August 4, 2014
Three Strikes Against the U.S. Housing MarketThe S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, a measure of the housing market in key American cities, declined in May by 0.31% from April—the first monthly decline in home prices in 27 months. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site, last accessed July 30, 2014.) The number of homes being built in the U.S. is also falling.  In June, the annual rate of new homes being built in .

Three Housing Market Indicators Yell “Trouble Ahead”

By Thursday, May 29, 2014
Next Shoe May Be Dropping the U.S. Housing MarketThe U.S. housing market is in trouble again, and as crazy as it sounds, it won’t surprise me to see home prices decline soon. Here are three reasons why: Existing-home sales have been declining since July of last year. The annual rate of existing-home sales in July of 2013 was 5.38 million. In April of this year, this rate fell to 4.65 million. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis .

2014: Year the Frail U.S. Housing Market Recovery Reverses?

By Thursday, May 22, 2014
What the Collapse in Homeownership Is Telling Us About the Housing MarketLooking at the current state of the U.S. housing market, one could say, “It’s the perfect time to buy a home.” Mortgage rates are historically low. Home prices are still down significantly from their peaks in 2006. But unfortunately, potential homeowners are not coming into the housing market. The reality of the U.S. housing market is that it never recovered. It’s still sick at heart. Low mortgage rates and low .

What the Collapse in Homebuilder Stocks Forewarns

By Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Proof U.S. Housing Market Losing MomentumThe housing market that lured institutional investors in during 2012 and 2013 is showing signs of cracking. Before I go into more detail, you have to keep in mind that affordability is the key to the housing market and affordability for housing only increases once home buyers’ wages increase. Right now, incomes in the U.S. economy are declining. And you can add to the problem the fact that mortgage rates .

Dead-Cat Bounce Over for the Housing Market?

By Wednesday, April 23, 2014
Momentum Housing Market Shows Clear Signs EasingI have been saying this for a while: You can’t have a housing recovery unless actual home buyers are involved. We are very far away from seeing the housing market reach its 2005 highs…and as time passes, it becomes clearer that this generation may never see them again. How can I say that? What we have seen in the housing market since then, but mostly since 2012, in my opinion, .

The Stock Market Needs to Do This in 2014 Before I Invest More in It

By Thursday, March 27, 2014
Why Investors Need to See It to Believe It in 2014This is an odd stock market. On one hand, you don’t want to miss out on any of the upward moves, which is why you should continue to ride the gains; on the other hand, you also want to make sure you have an exit plan in place. (See “Time for Investors to Create an Exit Strategy?”) As we move toward the end of the first quarter, the one thing .

Is the Housing Market Really a Hot Spot for Investors?

By Tuesday, March 18, 2014
Urban Housing Market Booming with PotentialNew York City is a colossal urban jungle, but what strikes me is the surging housing market rental prices in not only Manhattan, but also the strong price appreciation in the borough of Brooklyn. Average home prices peaked around $550,000 in early 2006, prior to a steady decline since then. Yet if you look at regions, especially Manhattan and Brooklyn, the demand for housing and rentals is strong, and this .

Why the U.S. Housing Market Recovery Will Falter This Year

By Wednesday, March 5, 2014
Housing Market Recovery in JeopardyThe chart below is of the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, an index that tracks home prices in the U.S. housing market. As the chart shows, from their peak in 2007 to their low in late 2011, U.S. homes prices fell by about 30%. Since then, prices in the housing market have improved, but they are still down about 20% compared to 2007. Basically, home prices have recouped only one-third .
Sep. 3, 2015
Trailing 12-month EPS for Dow Jones companies (Most Recent Quarter) $1014.15
Trailing 12-month Price/earnings multiple (Most Recent Quarter)

17.44

Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend Yield 2.62%
10-year U.S. Treasury Yield 2.19%

Immediate term outlook:
The bear market rally in stocks that started in March 2009, extended because of unprecedented central bank money printing, is coming to an end. Gold bullion is up $1,000 an ounce since we first recommended it in 2002 and we are still bullish on the physical metal.

Short-to-medium term outlook:
World economies are entering their slowest growth period since 2009. The Chinese economy grew last year at its slowest pace in 24 years. Japan is in recession. The eurozone is in depression. With almost half the S&P 500 companies deriving revenue outside the U.S., slower world economic growth will negatively impact revenue and earnings growth of American companies. Domestically, America’s gross domestic product grew by only a meager 2.3% in the second quarter, which will negatively impact an already overpriced equity market.

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From: Michael Lombardi, MBA
Subject: Golden Opportunity for Stock Market Investors

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