Posts Tagged ‘inflation rate’
Following a weak second quarter, the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 indices are now in positive territory for the first time since the end of the first quarter on the backs of a positive July and August.
So far, August has proven strong for technology, growth, and small-cap stocks, with the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 up 4.2% and 3.4%, respectively, as of the close of Thursday. The S&P 500 is holding at 1,400, a level that I believe will be tough to hold. Every time I look at the long-term technical picture of the S&P 500, I’m concerned about the vulnerability. Since 2000, there have been two major tops at above 1,400, and the current bull market rally from March 2009 appears to be heading for a third top.
What I continue to see is an expectation-driven buying based on a best case scenario that includes a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) from the Federal Reserve, the saving of the eurozone, and strengthening in the U.S. economy. And then you have the uncertainty of the upcoming presidential election.
Yet the reality is that Europe remains in a financial mess, with six eurozone countries in a recession and straddled with major debt and growth issues. Britain is also in a recession. Germany, the largest and strongest economy in the eurozone, is showing positive signs, but the problem will be the country’s focus and distraction in helping to save the eurozone. German Chancellor Merkel appears to be backing the desire of European Central Bank (ECB) to keep the eurozone together, but so far, we have yet to see any concrete … Read More
The stock market is behaving extremely well considering the huge amount of investment risk in the global marketplace. There is, however, no other place for investors to put their money and be able to generate income (dividends) that beats the inflation rate. All assets are risky: real estate, gold, the stock market and even cash. Investor sentiment is all over the map these days and it’s the new reality in a slow growth environment.
I wrote previously about the Federal Reserve’s potential for new policy action, and while it’s total guesswork, I repeat my view that some new monetary policy action would not be a surprise. (See The Stock Market and Investor Sentiment Tank—QE3 Anyone?) It is an election year and the economic news of late hasn’t been inspiring. I think the stock market is now betting on this, and this speculation is contributing to stronger spot prices for gold.
The price of gold is looking really good in my view, and I think it won’t be long before we break $1,700 an ounce. I’ve been looking at a lot of gold stocks lately, and the stock market has come back to this speculative sector. Trading action in many small- and mid-tier gold stocks has been robust over the last couple of weeks.
With the same fervor that gold stocks have had going up, oil stocks have hit hard with the spot price below $85.00 a barrel. That’s the thing you always have to deal with when you’re speculating in resource stocks; you have the operational business risk and the commodity price risk. Even if business … Read More
Profit Confidential — IT'S FREE!
"A Golden Opportunity for Stock Market Investors"