inflation

U.S. Economic Outlook for 2015: Economy Strong but Markets Unstable

By Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Economic Picture for 2015 Not RosyStrong Economic Data Points to Growth in 2015?

As 2014 winds down, many investors are wondering what the economic outlook for 2015 will be. If you look at the U.S. economic data that’s been trickling in, 2015 looks like it could be a very strong year.

The U.S. announced strong third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.9%. This extends the recent trend of strong quarter-over-quarter GDP growth; in the … Read More

Survey Shows Real Inflation Running at About 5%

By Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Survey Shows Real InflationIf you listen to mainstream economists, they will have you convinced prices in the U.S. economy aren’t rising fast enough. Some say we are headed towards a period of deflation. But the reality of the matter is that inflation in this economy is running rampant.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, what you could buy for $1.00 in 2008 will cost you $1.08 in 2013. In other words, according … Read More

Two Major Concerns About Overvalued Stock Market Prices

By Monday, November 17, 2014

Stock Market 60 OvervaluedThe amount of money investors are borrowing to buy stocks is skyrocketing.

In September of this year, margin debt on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stood at $483.87 billion—a new record-high. When the stock market was forming a top in 2007, margin debt was at a “then” record-high of $329.51 billion. Margin debt on the NYSE is now 47% higher than just before the previous big market sell-off. (Source: … Read More

What Canada/China’s Yuan Trade Deal Means for U.S. Dollar

By Friday, November 14, 2014

How Long Will This U.S. Dollar Rally LastAs the chart below illustrates, since July of this year, the U.S. dollar has been rallying against other major world currencies.

I, for one, do not expect to see the rally in the U.S. dollar sustained. I believe the U.S. dollar is currently rallying, because other parts in the global economy are doing worse than the U.S. While the U.S. dollar may rise in the short-term, because our central bank … Read More

Prices of Gold/Silver Companies to Double from Here?

By Monday, November 10, 2014

Prices of Gold and Silver Companies to DoubleSilver is down 70% from its high of $48.70 an ounce back in April of 2011. And the calls from the mainstream are for silver prices to fall farther, as the Federal Reserve has stopped printing paper money and inflation is nowhere in sight. I beg to differ.

As the price of one ounce of silver reaches a four-year low, investors are running to buy the gray precious metal. To … Read More

Money Supply Strongly Suggests Higher Inflation Ahead

By Friday, November 7, 2014

Money Supply Strongly Suggests Higher Inflation AheadAsk even an amateur economist, and they will tell you this: an increasing money supply eventually leads to inflation. It’s a simple concept; the more paper money there is in the system, the less it’s worth and the less it buys.

And this is exactly what is happening in the U.S. economy. The money supply is growing at a fast rate when compared to historical averages.

Consider the chart below … Read More

Economic Stalling in Eurozone Inevitable?

By Friday, November 7, 2014

Economic Stalling in Eurozone InevitableWhen Germany recently announced some underachieving economic numbers, it was a red flag for the eurozone and Europe. When the stronger of the two pillars in the eurozone (France being the other pillar) begins to show some fragility, you have to take a step back to evaluate the situation.

Now, it shouldn’t be a complete surprise to you that there are growth issues brewing in the eurozone, especially given the … Read More

About That QE4…

By Monday, October 20, 2014

Another Round of Money Printing Coming SoonIt’s widely expected that at the end of this month, the Federal Reserve will end its third round of quantitative easing (that began in September of 2012). This is QE3, where the Federal Reserve was printing $85.0 billion of new money every month and using it to buy U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In the beginning of 2014, the Fed started reducing the amount of money it was printing … Read More

The Nine-Month Check-Up

By Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Nine-Month Check-UpWith nine months behind us this year, today we look at how two popular forms of investment have done in 2014 and where I think they are headed for the remainder of the year.

Starting with stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed yesterday up 2.8% for the year. Given the risk of the stock market, 2.8% is no big gain. I wrote at the beginning of 2014 that the … Read More

Two Reasons Why Interest Rates Will Rise

By Monday, August 18, 2014

U.S. Dollar Under BRICS PressureThe U.S. dollar is still regarded as the reserve currency of the world. The majority of international transactions are settled in U.S. dollars and most central banks around the word hold it in their foreign exchange reserves.

But since the Credit Crisis of 2008, and the multi-trillion-dollar printing program by the Federal Reserve, the supremacy of the U.S. dollar as the “world’s currency” has been challenged.

The BRICS countries (Brazil, … Read More