Posts Tagged ‘IPOs’
Biotechnology stocks and the Russell 2000 began rolling over at the beginning of July, followed by transportation stocks at the end of the month.
It’s definitely a signal that the stock market is tired, but after such a strong breakout performance in 2013, the market still hasn’t experienced a material price correction in quite some time.
Second-quarter earnings came in mostly as expected and many blue-chip stocks sold off on good results, while companies backed existing full-year guidance. This happens often, as management teams try to make it easier for the company to “outperform” Street consensus. In a lot of cases, the only reason earnings per share advanced comparatively was increased share repurchases.
But it was mostly a decent earnings season and corporate balance sheets remain strong.
There’s not a lot of action to take in this market. Stocks have gone up tremendously and earnings are playing catch-up with valuations.
A little extra cash isn’t a bad thing with equities at their highs; however, finding good value with the prospect of growth in this market is becoming difficult.
I still think the domestic energy sector has a lot to offer investors, particularly those who are looking for income. Pipelines are a good business to be in as they throw off lots of cash and in many cases, revenues are not tied to the spot price of the underlying commodity.
With speculative fervor now reduced as evidenced by the trading action in biotechnology stocks, initial public offerings (IPOs), and select technology companies, it’s reasonable to expect the next couple of months to be pretty lackluster in terms of trading action. (September … Read More
Everything in the stock market experiences its own cycle of enthusiasm among investors. And this is especially well illustrated among speculative issues.
There was a time only a few years ago when some of the hottest speculative stocks were in solar energy. Now this small equity universe is still trying to rebuild itself.
And in more recent history, 3D-printing companies experienced incredible capital gains, only to experience incredible capital losses in what is a commonality among the market’s most speculative stocks.
At the end of the day, high-flying positions are still real businesses that have to deal with managing their own business conditions and hype among institutional investors.
As an investor, you have to consider both realities—the growth an underlying business is experiencing and the enthusiasm the marketplace has for such an enterprise or sector.
Twelve months ago, 3D Systems Corporation (DDD) was trading at $44.00 a share. Then it appreciated to a high of $97.28, before spending most of this year retreating to the $50.00-per-share level.
It’s only recently that the position broke the $55.00-per-share barrier, still sporting a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 46.
Fervor for speculative stocks definitely diminished at the beginning of this year, and it’s part of the cycle that equities perpetually experience.
At the beginning of 2013, the breakout was in large-cap blue chips. Institutional investors had just started buying these stocks, and they led the broader market higher.
Then the NASDAQ Composite began to improve and actually took the lead for a while. But even with the Federal Reserve onside, it didn’t take too long for big investors to just book some profits. … Read More
The spot price of oil has been eerily steady for quite some time; this is quite unusual for the world’s most traded commodity.
It’s been a peculiar year in capital markets, and there’s definitely an uncertainty in sentiment, especially in the equity market with no real trend for investors to latch onto. It makes me think that equity investors should be proactive now and take a hard look at their portfolios for investment risk.
Speculative fervor has been reduced and while small-cap stocks, initial public offerings (IPOs), biotechnology stocks, and super-high-valued stocks have taken it on the chin, this is not unreasonable for the longer-run trend in equities.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average just hit another record-high and its long-term chart, while impressive, actually looks kind of scary. The capital gains are tremendous since the March 2009 low, which begs the question as to when it’s going to reverse.
Historically, most of the average’s declines have come in the form of short bursts of downside, peppered by several multiyear periods of non-performance.
The stock market is highly unlikely to break down without a commensurate move in transportation stocks. But there is clearly room for downside in these share prices. Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) has doubled in value since just last September.
Caution. Caution. Caution. If you eliminate the bubble capital gains produced by stocks comprising the S&P 500 index during the late 1990s and their price recovery during the mid-2000s, the long-term chart still reveals an incredible performance. The crash of 1987 now looks like a blip. The 100-year chart of the S&P 500 is featured below:
Chart … Read More
If there’s been a rotation into safer, more reasonably priced stocks, the trend can also reverse itself when the market is ready.
Biotechnology stocks, initial public offerings (IPOs), and hyper-priced technology issues were ripe for a sell-off after such tremendous capital gains. A rotation isn’t a breakdown in the longer-term stock market trend; it’s just a trade, and big investors wanted to book some profits.
Now some very good companies are more attractively priced, and there could very well be some decent buys if the broader stock market’s current fundamentals aren’t hit by some external shock.
The action in this market is choppy, and it’s the lull between earnings seasons. The lack of corporate reporting often makes for tough trading in stocks.
One company that I like for long-term investors, however, has come off its high by about 10%. The stock I’m talking about is NIKE, Inc. (NKE).
NIKE has a long track record of relatively consistent wealth creation for shareholders, and the company pays a dividend. Its current yield is approximately 1.3%.
According to history, this position has proven to be a good buy when it’s down. According to management, its business prospects for the rest of the year are solid. The company’s long-term stock chart is featured below:
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
Wall Street firms have been increasing their earnings estimates for NIKE going into 2015.
The company’s most recent quarter (ended February 28, 2014) was a good one. Total sales grew 13% to $6.97 billion, while diluted earnings per share from continuing operations grew four percent to $0.76.
Global footwear sales provided the biggest quarterly gain, jumping … Read More
A lot of stocks are rolling over, breaking their 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (MAs). This is a tired market that could very well consolidate or correct right into the fourth quarter.
And the economic data has been softer, as well. Throw in geopolitical tensions with Russia and we have the makings of a material price retrenchment.
There’s still resilience, however, in some of the most important stock market indices. Stocks composing the Dow Jones Transportation Average are holding up extremely well, especially compared to the Russell 2000, the NASDAQ Biotechnology index, and the NASDAQ Composite index itself.
While the main market indices are mostly flat on the year, I don’t think investors can expect any capital gains until perhaps the fourth quarter.
From my perspective, relative price strength in the Dow Jones industrials, transportation stocks, and most of the S&P 500 index means that the longer-run uptrend remains intact.
With speculative fervor still coming out of initial public offerings (IPOs) and select biotechnology stocks, this action is an indicator of a tired market that’s long in the tooth, as investors are clearly less willing to speculate on those stocks that don’t offer income or relative safety in their earnings.
Risk aversion won’t kill a secular bull market. But it does mean that risk-capital opportunities are a lot less plentiful. Currently, among speculative stocks, one of the only sectors still experiencing decent price action is oil and gas drilling and exploration.
This is still a market that I think favors existing winners—blue chips, in particular. (See “Top Stocks for the Coming Correction.”)
These are the stocks to … Read More
Two years ago, when the former Kraft Foods Inc. broke itself up, spinning off its global food and beverage business (now Kraft Foods Group, Inc. [KRFT]), the company renamed itself Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ). Now, the company is mostly a global snacks business. The new Kraft Foods Group has done pretty well on the stock market since listing in September 2012; the position currently has an attractive dividend yield of 3.7%.
Large-cap corporate spin-offs are typically highly profitable for shareholders. (See “Top Market Sectors for 2014.”) Despite a slow start, Mondelez has finally broken out of its recent consolidation trend on new operational momentum.
Mondelez sells cookies, snacks, confections, and cheese. Some of the company’s iconic brands include “Cadbury,” “Oreo,” “Nabisco,” “Christie,” and “Trident,” among others.
The Street’s been bidding “safer” stocks recently, and investors liked Mondelez’s news of a restructuring plan and the spin-off of its coffee business, which will net the company $5.0 billion in after-tax proceeds.
Like many large-cap public companies, Mondelez has been buying back its own shares. In the first quarter, it spent $500 million on its own stock at an average price of $34.20 per share. Its two-year stock chart is featured below:
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
If you happened to be a shareholder of the former Kraft Foods Inc. then you’ve done well with both spin-off businesses and both stocks remain attractive holds.
Mondelez isn’t offering as much income as the new Kraft Foods Group; its dividend yield is currently around 1.6%. And while top-line growth is always an issue for established large-cap consumer brands, Mondelez is an improving earnings story—that’s … Read More
Being financial reporting season, it’s important to discern between results that beat Wall Street consensus and real economic growth.
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) just announced better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, but they weren’t better than the comparable quarter of 2013. Operating earnings, earnings from continuing operations, and diluted earnings per share were all down significantly compared to the first quarter of 2013.
So, the illusion can definitely become real in hot markets. Investors are always better off ignoring headlines and going right to the financial statements. Managed earnings are just that—managed.
One company that just produced a very good quarter was The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW). The stock broker’s first-quarter sales grew 15% to $1.48 billion on strong growth in asset management and administration fees.
Net earnings leapt 58% to $326 million, or 60% to $0.60 in diluted earnings per share. Top-line growth and strong expense control were the reasons for the strong bottom-line growth.
There’s no real reason why Charles Schwab’s share price should keep on appreciating near-term. All the good news is priced into the shares. The company beat consensus earnings by $0.02 a share, while revenues were in line.
This reporting season, earnings are here to justify current share prices.
I’d be very wary of buying corporate good news now. Market jitters aren’t going away and all it takes is a small catalyst for institutional investors to pull the sell trigger again.
A meaningful correction or price consolidation would be a positive development for the longer-run trend and a good opportunity to consider adding to blue-chip positions.
A good deal of speculative fervor has come out of this market, … Read More
If you think Chinese stocks are too speculative to consider and buy, then you need to read what I’m going to say over the next few paragraphs.
Yes, it’s true that China-based companies have subjected U.S. capital markets to erroneous results and reporting in the past and that it is likely continuing to some degree, but that does not mean you should bypass Chinese stocks. You just need to be extra careful.
With the recent moves by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to force Chinese companies looking to list in the United States to use approved auditors along with other tighter reporting requirements, we have seen the flow of China-based initial public offerings (IPOs) dry up. There were only about two Chinese IPOs setting up shop on U.S. exchanges in 2013; so far, this year has proven to be no different.
Yet the reality is that Chinese IPOs continue to attract frenzy when they list here, perhaps due to the limited issues. The biggest coup was the recent decision by China-based e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which decided to list in the United States and bypass Hong Kong. The IPO is estimated to be at around $15.0 billion and will be the largest IPO listing from a Chinese company. The reason for the decision, I believe, is the currently extremely receptive environment for IPOs in America. It’s likely Alibaba will create so much buzz that its share price will explode out of the gate for those lucky enough to own shares.
The reality is that even if you cannot get your hands on Alibaba, which has … Read More
Earnings estimates for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) are going up and the stock, which recently accelerated, finally looks like it has broken out of a 13-year consolidation.
Microsoft has been an income play for quite a while. Currently yielding three percent, the company’s forward price-to-earnings ratio is around 12.5 and is not dissimilar from many other blue chips.
Then there’s Intel Corporation (INTC). This company has been struggling for capital gains, but it’s yielding 3.6% and isn’t expensively priced.
What these technology companies illustrate so well is the business cycle, both in terms of operational growth and also as equity securities. Getting the cycle correct (the right place/stock at the right time) is the toughest thing for any investor or businessperson.
Regarding stocks, both Microsoft and Intel’s long-term charts clearly show how extremely overpriced their share prices were during the bull market of the 90s. Intel’s long-term stock chart is featured below:
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
The benefit of the very long term is that it provides a normalized but still decent rate of return with these kinds of stocks. No enterprise or investor can escape the business cycle, whether it is industry-specific, a local reality, or the general economy.
Railroad stocks have been super hot over the last several years, but for long periods of time, they were not. The solid dividend-payers that they are, you’d be hard-pressed to find Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) competing with Apple Inc. (AAPL) or Google Inc. (GOOG) for headlines.
I feel that stocks have broken out of their previous consolidation phase in favor of a new long-term cycle. But while last year’s stunning … Read More
There is a lot of liquidity out there, and all kinds of stocks are experiencing significant price momentum.
It’s a bull market still, and no matter how long it has to run, it seems that valuations aren’t as important as owning the right stocks for institutional investors. Countless names have fought back in price from recent sell-offs and are now pushing new record-highs once again.
These stocks include Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), priceline.com Incorporated (PCLN), and Google Inc. (GOOG), among others. You could buy a basket of these stocks and if nothing were to change in terms of monetary policy, they probably would be higher in a month’s time.
But while momentum remains strong and existing winners keep outperforming, stocks haven’t really experienced a material price correction in more than two years and because of this, investment risk remains high.
Previously in these pages, we looked at some top-ranked biotechnology stocks that continue to be tremendous wealth creators for shareholders. (See “Can the Rally in Biotechs Keep Its Momentum?”) But their amazing price-performance also illustrates the froth in the stock market. While speculative fervor for initial public offerings (IPOs) has diminished since the beginning of the year, existing winners just keep on plowing higher.
Investor sentiment can always change on a dime, but it needs a catalyst to do so. This could include a change in monetary or fiscal policies, a geopolitical event, a derivatives trade gone bad, currency destabilization—the list is endless.
The Federal Reserve recently gave the marketplace the certainty it was looking for: quantitative easing is going to continue to be reduced and short-term interest rates … Read More
“Outback Steakhouse,” “Carrabba’s Italian Grill,” “Bonefish Grill,” “Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse and Wine Bar,” and “Roy’s” are all owned by Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. (BLMN). With 1,500 restaurants in the U.S. and 21 other countries, business for the company is solid.
Fourth-quarter sales grew 5.1% to $1.1 billion due to new restaurant openings and an increase in comparable restaurant sales. The company opened 15 new locations during the quarter and completed 36 restaurant renovations. This resulted in bottom-line earnings of $59.0 million, or $0.46 per share (with a one-time gain), or $34.2 million, or $0.27 per share, on an adjusted basis for a 35% gain over adjusted earnings in the same quarter of the previous year.
The company’s shares rose 12% on the earnings report.
If there’s one restaurant stock that continues to amaze with its share price performance, it’s Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG). This stock has more than doubled over the last 16 months and, while expensively priced, is still a powerhouse of growth.
The company’s earnings estimates have continued to increase since I last wrote about the stock in October. (See “Two Old Restaurant Stocks Offer Investors Growth.”) Fourth-quarter 2013 revenues grew 21% to $844 million, which is a huge accomplishment, all things considered.
Fourth-quarter earnings grew 30% to $80.0 million. The cost of food is the company’s single largest expenditure at 34% of total sales, followed by labor at 23%. Fourth-quarter comparable restaurant sales grew 9.3% and there were 56 new locations for a total of 1,595.
Anything double-digit is a big deal in today’s world, and you can find it in the right restaurant stocks. … Read More
We all know about some of the insane valuations with social media and Internet services stocks, such as Twitter, Inc. (NYSE/TWTR), Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ/FB), and Yelp, Inc. (NYSE/YELP), as I have discussed in these pages before. (Read “Two More Internet Stocks to Watch.”)
These valuations make it extremely risky to buy, as a change in the market perception and valuation could lead to a sell-off in the stock, as was the case for Twitter recently.
Now, if you are willing to assume the risk, there are some more attractive Chinese Internet and social media stocks that offer far better valuations than their American counterparts, but these China-based companies also come with much higher risk.
A look at the valuations of these Chinese stocks really doesn’t tell us much, but based purely on strict metrics and valuations, these Chinese stocks look pretty good—in fact, the prices of these Chinese stocks seem too good to believe. And therein lies the risk: due to the questionable reliability of the financial reporting, auditing, and statements in China, these Chinese stocks carry a lot of risk. Sometimes, it seems as though numbers have been made up to suck in investors and drive the share price higher.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as I said in a previous commentary on China, has been trying to clean up the reporting requirements and offer some potential hope that the numbers being reported are valid. While it’s a good step forward, there’s still no guarantee that crooks will not escape the watch of the SEC.
I was reading how there may be 30 or so … Read More
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