Finally, some good news for the U.S. economy?
Last week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 248,000 jobs were created in the U.S. economy in September, pushing the unemployment rate down to 5.9% from 6.1% the previous month. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 3, 2014.)
The September jobs market report showed good job creation in sectors like professional and business services, information, mining, construction, and financial. Combined, these .
A week ago today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its jobs market report for the month of August. To say the very least, there was nothing in that report that says the labor market in the U.S. economy is back on its feet. In fact, the report painted a gruesome image of employment in this country.
In August, 142,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy—the lowest monthly .
In 2013, the Federal Reserve gave stock market investors some of the easiest gains in history as a result of its quantitative easing. Now, as we move into 2014, while I believe it will likely be another up year for the stock market, I doubt the gains will be as good as last year’s.
Let’s take a look at the situation in 2014.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be gone .
There’s a lot of talk about economic recovery these days. Mainstream economists are saying the U.S. economy will continue to grow, and the stock advisors are telling investors to buy on dips because everything is headed upward. Their arguments are: housing is hot, the unemployment rate is declining, and consumers are spending.
But I have to disagree with those claims. I believe this isn’t a real economic recovery. What we .
Standard & Poor’s, the credit rating agency, believes the likelihood of the U.S. credit rating being downgraded in the near term is less than 33% (one in three) and it has decided to keep its credit rating on the U.S. economy at AA+, slightly lower than the best investment grade. (Source: Standards & Poor’s, June 10, 2013.)
This may be good news to the politicians who continue to believe there .
Didn’t the government say the economy is getting better? Why do I question what they’re saying? Because consumer spending is going the wrong way.
Core retail sales declined 0.1% in April—and that’s after they already fell 0.4% in the previous month! (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, May 13, 2013.)
When compared to the first four months of 2012, consumer spending in the U.S. economy declined in the first four months of .
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in February, the central bank of Mongolia increased its gold bullion reserves to its highest level since August of 2008. The country has been purchasing gold bullion for three consecutive months—its reserves have increased from 1.5 metric tons to 5.8 tons, or about 287%. (Source: Bloomberg, March 26, 2013.)
Similarly, the central bank of Russia has been purchasing gold bullion. It bought seven .
The so-called “recovery” in the jobs market isn’t sustainable. I don’t disagree that there has been job creation in the past few months, but when I look at the spectrum of the jobs created in the U.S. economy, I become skeptical. Jobs growth in the U.S. economy has been in the low-paying retail sector.
Consider this: in February, there were 1,422 mass layoffs in the U.S. economy, involving 135,468 workers. .
By looking at the stock market’s recent performance, one might think the U.S. economy has turned the corner and the worst is behind us. This is far from reality! The U.S. economy is fundamentally damaged, and since the financial crisis of 2008–2009, there really hasn’t been any real economic growth.
Even a novice economist will tell you: economic growth happens when general living conditions of citizens in a country improve; .
There was some rejoicing last Friday after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 236,000 new jobs and a lower unemployment rate of 7.7% for February. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 8, 2013.)
While the job creation number was good, it wasn’t earth-rattling and by no means did it suggest the jobs market is set for a superlative upward move.
You know we still have about 12.3 million Americans .
Immediate term outlook:
The bear market rally in stocks that started in March 2009, extended because of unprecedented central bank money printing, is coming to an end. Gold bullion is up $1,000 an ounce since we first recommended it in 2002 and we are still bullish on the physical metal.
Short-to-medium term outlook:
World economies are entering their slowest growth period since 2009. The Chinese economy grew last year at its slowest pace in 24 years. Japan is in recession. The eurozone is in depression. With almost half the S&P 500 companies deriving revenue outside the U.S., slower world economic growth will negatively impact revenue and earnings growth of American companies. Domestically, America’s gross domestic product grew by only a meager 2.3% in the second quarter, which will negatively impact an already overpriced equity market.
Estimates Aug. 30, 2015
Trailing 12-month EPS for Dow Jones companies (Most Recent Quarter)