According to the latest labor market report, U.S. jobs numbers are pointing to an economy that is nowhere near ready for a rise in interest rates. Robust jobs “growth” is simply not there, given the weak manufacturing sector and a troubling inflation outlook. Instead, it appears U.S. jobs growth is moving at its slowest pace since 2013, dragging down the U.S. economy.
Where’s the Jobs Growth in the U.S. Economy?.
Here we go again. Just when the stock market is moving lower and forecasting a potential correction, we see buying emerging, driving the bears back to the woods.
The reality is that I was looking for the S&P 500 to potentially correct 10%, down to around 1,792, something that has not materialized in about two years. It would, in my view, represent a good buying opportunity to accumulate shares at .
Finally, some good news for the U.S. economy?
Last week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 248,000 jobs were created in the U.S. economy in September, pushing the unemployment rate down to 5.9% from 6.1% the previous month. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 3, 2014.)
The September jobs market report showed good job creation in sectors like professional and business services, information, mining, construction, and financial. Combined, these .
Six years ago this month, in the midst of the Great Recession, Lehman Brothers, one of the most well-known investment banks in the U.S. economy, filed for bankruptcy.
At the time, Lehman’s bankruptcy sparked widespread worries…and the U.S. financial system teetered on the verge of collapse. For those of us who remember that time, there was too much uncertainty.
So, the Federal Reserve and the government stepped in to help .
A week ago today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its jobs market report for the month of August. To say the very least, there was nothing in that report that says the labor market in the U.S. economy is back on its feet. In fact, the report painted a gruesome image of employment in this country.
In August, 142,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy—the lowest monthly .
In spite of some doom and gloom scenarios for the housing market, so far it has been full steam ahead as the sector continues to blaze along since bouncing out of the Great Recession in 2008.
With interest rates and mortgage rates continuing to be relatively low, and with the jobs market producing more than 200,000 new jobs monthly, the ingredients are there for continued strength in the housing market, .
According to Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, “More jobs have now been created in the recovery than were lost in the downturn… the unemployment rate, at 6.2% in July, has declined nearly 4 percentage points from its late 2009 peak.” (Source: “Labor Market Dynamics and Monetary Policy,” Federal Reserve, August 22, 2014.)
Great news, right? On the surface, yes. But when you look closer at the numbers, the jobs market paints .
The housing market picked up steam in July after some stalling in the first half of the year, which was negatively affected by bad winter conditions in the first quarter. Housing starts surged 15.7% to a seasonally adjusted 1.09 million units in July, the market’s highest production in eight months. This break of one million units is key. Plus, the lagging building permits number was equally strong at an annualized .
Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 317 points, while the NASDAQ Composite Index fell 93 points—respective losses of about two percent per index. This morning, stock market futures are down again.
As a reader of Profit Confidential, this “rout” we are now in should come as no surprise. I have been writing for months how overpriced the stock market has become, how the stock market has become one .
One week ago today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 288,000 jobs were added to the U.S. jobs market in April. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3% from 6.7 % in March. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2, 2014.) Even the most optimistic of economists weren’t expecting a jobs creation number this big.
But it’s just the same old story…
When you look closer at the details of the .
Immediate term outlook:
The bear market rally in stocks that started in March 2009, extended because of unprecedented central bank money printing, is coming to an end. Gold bullion is up $1,000 an ounce since we first recommended it in 2002 and we are still bullish on the physical metal.
Short-to-medium term outlook:
World economies are entering their slowest growth period since 2009. The Chinese economy grew last year at its slowest pace in 24 years. Japan is in recession. The eurozone is in depression. With almost half the S&P 500 companies deriving revenue outside the U.S., slower world economic growth will negatively impact revenue and earnings growth of American companies. Domestically, America’s gross domestic product grew by only a meager 2.3% in the second quarter, which will negatively impact an already overpriced equity market.
Estimates Aug. 28, 2015
Trailing 12-month EPS for Dow Jones companies (Most Recent Quarter)