Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

Posts Tagged ‘national debt’

The Sobering Issue

By for Profit Confidential

Why Our National Debt Will Double From HereAccording to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, next year, the government is expected to incur a budget deficit of $469 billion and then another budget deficit of $536 billion in 2016. (Source: Congressional Budget Office web site, last accessed July 21, 2014.) From there, the budget deficit is expected to increase as far as the projections go.

Yes, the government’s own estimates are that our country will run a budget deficit every year for as long as the government’s forecasts go.

That’s quite unbelievable. We live in a country where the government (and politicians) feel it is okay to continue being “negative” every year, indefinitely. It’s like I’ve written many times: if our government were a business, it would have gone bankrupt long ago. But the government, through its non-owned agency, the Federal Reserve, has the luxury of printing paper money to fund its budget deficit and debt. If a business did that—printed money to pay its bills—that would be illegal.

Today, the U.S. national debt stands at $17.6 trillion with about $7.0 trillion of that incurred under the Obama Administration. (Is it any wonder a CNN/ORC International poll said this morning that 35% of Americans say they want President Obama impeached with about two-thirds saying he should be removed from office?)

But what happens to the budget deficit once interest rates start going up? We’ve already heard from the Federal Reserve that interest rates will be sharply higher at the end of 2015 and 2016 than they are now.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of the Treasury was able to borrow money (issued long-term bonds) at an interest … Read More

Double Bottom in for Gold Prices?

By for Profit Confidential

Gold Bullion Fear Index CollapsesWhile the Federal Reserve has cut back on its money printing program, the fact of the matter is that the “official” U.S. national debt is closing in on $18.0 trillion. The unofficial national debt (when obligations like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, welfare, and now Obamacare are taken into consideration) is closer to $200 trillion.

The Japanese national debt just hit one quadrillion yuan.

Many countries in the eurozone are drowning under debt. The European Central Bank recently started talking about printing money to finally get the eurozone out of its mess.

All of this is very well-known to Profit Confidential readers.

Why do I bring this up again today? I’m back focusing on debt because it is becoming more and more apparent that the only way to reduce the record national debt many industrialized countries have accumulated since the Credit Crisis of 2008 is to print even more money.

And the collapse in the volatility of gold bullion prices could be pointing to just that. To see what I’m talking about, take a look at this chart:

Volatility Index - CBOE Gold INDX ChartChart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

In April of 2013, when the sharp decline in gold bullion prices began, volatility for gold prices was very high. Since then, the volatility index for gold, an index that essentially gauges investors’ fear factor for gold bullion prices, has collapsed.

And when we look at the price chart of gold bullion (see next chart below), we see strong support for the metal just below the $1,200-an-ounce level. This level has been tested twice and on both occasions, gold failed to fall below $1,200. In technical analysis, this is … Read More

Sneaky New Taxes Way Government Debt Will Get Paid Down?

By for Profit Confidential

Getting Ready Mansion TaxAs it stands, the U.S. national debt has skyrocketed to above $17.4 trillion. With this year’s budget deficit expected to be around $500 billion, we’ll be at a national debt of $18.0 trillion in no time. In fact, a $30.0-trillion national debt is not out of the question by the end of the next decade.

Any way you look at these very big numbers, it is the American taxpayer who is on the hook for the years the government mismanaged finances.

If we look at the Greek example, that country’s government, too, rigorously spent money, registering massive budget deficits year after year. This caused Greece’s national debt to get to a point where it was unable to make payments on what it borrowed. Those who bailed out the Greek government asked for changes. This resulted in the lowering of pension payments to Greek citizens and austerity measures across the board.

The U.S. has more national debt than any other country in the global economy. At some point—and I don’t know when, as the can just keeps getting kicked down the road—either taxes will need to go up or austerity measures will need to be introduced to deal with the debt mess.

And since we now have so many people in this country dependent on government handouts and support, I think we’ll see higher taxes before we see austerity in the U.S.

Consider this: New York City’s mayor, Bill de Blasio, is considering a “mansion tax.” This is essentially an extra tax on homes valued at more than $1.0 million. He wants the proceeds from the tax to go towards adding … Read More

Why Prices Will Rise Exponentially Over the Next 10 Years

By for Profit Confidential

Social Security Health Care Costs Double 2014Something just doesn’t make sense here…

In 2013, the U.S. budget deficit came down to $680 billion. Finally, after four consecutive years of annual budget deficits of more than $1.0 trillion, the government got its annual “hole” under the trillion-dollar level, and it seemed as though we were headed in the right direction.

But stop. The government is now reversing its track…

According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the budget deficit of the U.S. government will decline to $492 billion in 2014, but from then on it will increase and reach more than $1.0 trillion annually again by 2024! The CBO projects that between 2015 and 2024, the accumulated budget deficit for the U.S. government will be $7.6 trillion. (Source: Congressional Budget Office web site, last accessed April 30, 2014.)

The biggest expense increases for the government, Social Security payments are projected to almost double by 2024, and annual healthcare expenses are going to increase from $936 billion in 2014 to $1.7 trillion in 2024.

What this means is that the national debt will rise to $24.0 trillion by 2024 if everything goes as planned—if we don’t have another war between now and then, if we face no natural catastrophes that would require federal support, and if interest rates don’t run up too much (all three of which I believe will happen)!

My personal projection is that 10 years from now, we will be looking at national debt in the $30.0 to $34.0 trillion range. I believe annual budget deficits of more than $1.0 trillion will become the norm, not the exception.

When I look at this and the … Read More

Why the Fed Will Have to Get Back into the Paper Money Printing Business Soon

By for Profit Confidential

U.S. Economic GrowthIn the early days of the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve said, “Job losses, declining equity and housing wealth and tight credit conditions have weighed on consumer sentiment and spending. Weaker sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories and fixed investment.” (Source: Federal Reserve, March 18, 2008.) As a result of this, the central bank came up with the idea of printing paper money to stimulate the economy; thus, “quantitative easing” was born.

Five years later, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has grown to $4.2 trillion. We also saw the U.S. government increase spending to stimulate the U.S. economy after the Credit Crisis of 2008. The U.S. national debt skyrocketed from around $9.0 trillion back then to over $17.0 trillion today.

With all this money being created (by the Fed) and borrowed (by the government), the logical assumption is that there’s finally economic growth in the U.S. economy.

Wrong!

Paper money printing by the Federal Reserve and out-of-control spending by the government hasn’t really given much of a boost to the U.S. economy (aside from the stock market bubble it has created). Problems still persist. The amount of paper money that has been printed out of thin air is huge—an unprecedented event in American history.

Now that the Federal Reserve is putting the brakes on quantitative easing (it will print less money each month), will we see businesses pull back on capital spending? Of course we will. When money is tight, businesses pull back on research and development, expansion, and acquisitions.

Consider this: since December of last year to this past … Read More

What a Loan Officer Would Say to the U.S. Government

By for Profit Confidential

Does the Size of Our National Debt Really Matter AnymoreFor a moment, consider yourself a loan officer at a major bank. Would you approve a loan for a customer who says they earn $1,000 a month, spend $1,300 a month, and don’t have a job? They also tell you they have unpaid debts of $17,000.

I don’t think anyone would authorize that kind of loan because the chances of getting the money back are next to zero. The individual spending more than he earns is a prime example of a financial disaster waiting to happen. It is unsustainable living; when someone does this, they break the most basic principles of Personal Finance 101.

So why does the U.S. government get away with it?

The United States Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service reported the budget deficit for the month of February was $194 billion. The U.S. government received $144 billion in revenues and spent $338 billion; the government spent 134% more than what it earned. (Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service, March 14, 2014.)

So far for fiscal year 2014 (which began in October of 2013), the U.S. government has incurred a budget deficit of $380 billion on revenues of $1.10 trillion and expenses of $1.48 trillion. Since the beginning of its current fiscal year, the government has been spending 34% more than what it takes in.

The U.S. national debt, which has now surpassed $17.0 trillion, has skyrocketed since the Credit Crisis of 2008.

There are two important facts about our rising national debt that don’t get a lot of mainstream attention (and I certainly don’t hear the politicians talking about them):

Point #1: … Read More

Why I Can’t Help but Be Bullish on Gold

By for Profit Confidential

Gold Presenting Same Opportunity Today That Stocks Offered in 2009The U.S. national debt has skyrocketed from $9.2 trillion in the beginning of 2008 to $17.3 trillion today. This represents an increase of more than 88% in just a matter of a few years. (Source: Treasury Direct web site, last accessed March 11, 2014.) The national debt of the U.S. is higher than its gross domestic product (GDP).

Japan is in a very similar situation, if not worse. At the end of 2013, Japan’s national debt stood above one quadrillion yen. In U.S. dollar terms, this amounts to more than $10.0 trillion. (Source: Japan Ministry of Finance web site, last accessed March 11, 2014.) Japan’s national debt is more than 200% of the country’s GDP.

In its fiscal 2012–2013 year, the national debt of Great Britain stood at 1.18 trillion pounds; in U.S. dollar terms, that’s close to $2.0 trillion. (Source: Reuters, February 28, 2014.) Great Britain’s national debt represents 74% of its GDP, and that percentage is rising.

The U.S., Japan, and Great Britain are only three countries whose national debt continues to increase. Include troubled countries in the eurozone, and the picture in respect to out-of-control debt and money printing starts to take a really ugly form.

Rising national debt pretty much means there will be higher inflation ahead; that’s one of the reasons why I can’t help but be bullish on gold bullion, one of the best hedges against inflation.

And that’s where the opportunity for investors lies today. Gold mining shares are trading at historically low multiples. Because of the sell-off in gold bullion prices over the last two years, many gold mining companies were punished. … Read More

First Cyprus, Then Poland, Now These Savings Accounts to Get Confiscated Next

By for Profit Confidential

What Happened in Cyprus, Then in Poland, to Happen Next in the EU CountriesThe savings of 500 million individuals living in the European Union are on the line.

Let me explain:

We all know Cyprus, one of the smallest countries in the eurozone and part of the European Union, went through what many feared. To save itself from default and pay down its out-of-control national debt, the government imposed a one-off capital levy on the bank accounts of individuals in that country. If you had more than a certain amount of money in your savings account, the government outright confiscated a portion of it.

Poland, another European Union country, did something very similar. In an effort to reduce its national debt, the government took assets from private pensions and made them public. (This incident never even made the big mainstream headlines.)

When these events took place, I started writing how this would be a new trend—governments would find new and crafty ways to take money from savers in their efforts to make the governments’ dire conditions better, be it for paying off their national debt or bailing out banks.

Now, we learn of documents from a European Union official stating more of the same is on the way. The savings of the individuals in those countries will be used to fund the countries’ long-term investments and reduce the gap that the region’s banks have created by pulling back on their lending.

The document, revealed by Reuters, said, “The Commission will ask the bloc’s insurance watchdog in the second half of this year for advice on a possible draft law to mobilize more personal pension savings for long-term financing.” (Source: “EU executive sees personal … Read More

Exodus Away from U.S. Dollar On?

By for Profit Confidential

Fundamentals That Once Supported Greenback Damaged“Michael, you don’t know what you are talking about.” That’s pretty much what I was told back in 2005 and 2006 when I was warning extensively that the U.S. housing market would collapse.

When a boom in any form of investment is going on, and millions of people are participating in that boom, it’s hard to convince people the boom is about to bust. At a certain point, we start hearing that old saying “it’s different this time,” which means people simply don’t believe the boom will end. They try to legitimize it.

But like all booms, the bust did happen. The housing market went bust big-time, and we all know what happened after that.

Today, there’s another asset class that is booming, that investors large and small are literally running to. No, I’m not talking about the stock market (it’s already in bust mode). I’m talking about the greenback, the good old U.S. dollar.

In recent days, and despite trillions of dollars in new money created by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. dollar has gained traction as investors search for safety amid the collapsing emerging markets.

Personally, I think investors are wrong to find security in the U.S. dollar. In fact, I see its days as the leading currency of the world being numbered.

But the fundamentals that make the dollar a “safe haven” are damaged. Aside from the fact the Federal Reserve has printed trillions in new money and the government continues to take on never-to-be-repaid debt daily, central banks around the world are reducing the amount of the reserves they keep in U.S. dollars.

Please look … Read More

If Money Printing Failed in Japan, Why Would It Work in the U.S.?

By for Profit Confidential

Why Is the Japanese Economy Starting to Tank AgainWhat the Federal Reserve is doing in the U.S.—its effort to get the economy going via its money printing program—has already been tried by the second-largest economy in the world: Japan.

Unfortunately, the easy monetary policy implemented by the Bank of Japan didn’t spur the Japanese economy. So why would it work for the U.S. economy?

One of the core purposes of easy monetary policy by the Federal Reserve was to improve lending so businesses would borrow money and grow (hopefully creating jobs) and consumers would borrow and spend (creating economic activity). All of this would lead to improved consumer confidence.

The Bank of Japan started a scheme to increase lending in Japan in 2010. It gave funds to its biggest banks to lend to companies. It set aside 21.5 trillion yen for this scheme; but sadly, only 8 trillion yen has been used. (Source: Reuters, October 17, 2013.) Easy money policies, and a program specially designed to give money to banks to lend out to companies, did not work in the Japanese economy.

And consumer confidence in the Japanese economy remains bleak. The index that tracks consumer confidence in the country stood at 41.9 in November. At the beginning of the year, it hovered near 45.0. A subset of consumer confidence, an index tracking consumers’ willingness to buy durable goods, stood at the lowest level of the year in November at 42.4 compared to 44.9 in January. (Source: Japan’s Cabinet Office, December 10, 2013.) The bottom line: after years of easy money policies and with a national debt-to-GDP multiple of 205%, there’s been no improvement in consumer confidence … Read More

Burning Money at the Rate of $113 Billion a Month; How Can They Stop Printing?

By for Profit Confidential

Why Our National Debt Will Double in the Years AheadIn the month of November, the U.S. government registered a budget deficit of $135 billion. Over the course of the month, it spent $318 billion and only took in $182 billion. So far for the fiscal year 2014, which began in October, the U.S. government has registered a budget deficit of $227 billion; that’s an average of $113.5 billion a month so far this fiscal year. (Source: Department of the Treasury; Bureau of Fiscal Service, December 11, 2013.)

In the same period a year ago (October and November of 2013), the U.S. government registered a budget deficit of almost $300 billion. (I ‘m certain that some politician comparing the two periods will say, “Look, our budget deficit situation is getting better!”)

Whenever the U.S. government registers a budget deficit, it has to go out to the market and borrow money to pay for its expenses and obligations. This increases our national debt, which has skyrocketed over the past few years due to consecutive years of extremely large budget deficits. As of December 10, our national debt stood at $17.2 trillion. (Source: Treasury Direct web site, last accessed December 12, 2013.)

I believe our national debt will double to $34.0 trillion in the years ahead.

Here’s my reasoning:

According to the Congressional Budget Office’s projection, between 2014 and 2018, the total U.S. budget deficit of the U.S. government will add up to about $2.4 trillion. This means that by the government’s own estimates, the national debt will hit about $20.0 trillion in four years. (Source: The Congressional Budget Office, May 2013.)

But I think the budget deficits the U.S. government will … Read More

My First Encounter with Air Force One

By for Profit Confidential

211113_PC_lombardiIt was a regular flight for me to Miami…a late Saturday afternoon two weeks ago. As our flight approached Miami International Airport, the captain announced we would soon be starting our descent.

Then something happened that I thought was strange.

We started circling in the air. Not once or twice, which is common when air traffic gets congested, but we circled for what seemed to be 20 to 30 minutes. I told my wife, “Something is up. I wish the captain would come back on and tell us what’s going on.”

And finally that announcement came. The captain came on and said, “Ladies and gentleman, as you probably know, we have been circling up here for the last little while.”

The captain then proceeded to tell us President Obama had left the Miami airport on Air Force One within the last hour or so, and when that happens, commercial airlines are not allowed to take off or land for a specific amount of time. We were stuck in the backlog of flights trying to land because Air Force One had recently taken off.

The next day, I heard on the news that President Obama was in Florida the night before for Democratic fundraisers and to play golf on Saturday morning.

This got me thinking and researching.

Air Force One costs approximately $200,000 per hour to operate. (Source: USA Today, May 22, 2012.) But that doesn’t include the cost of lost productivity for the thousands of business people who are often delayed when Air Force One travels (or the thousands of tourists who are inconvenienced).

According to Kiplinger Washington Editors, … Read More

The Day People Woke Up and Said, “I Need to Rush Out and Buy Stocks”

By for Profit Confidential

 key stock indicesCan you believe the mainstream headlines these days? I’m reading about the Dow Jones Industrial Average going to 19,000… I’m reading that stocks are rising because the amount of stocks for investors to buy has diminished…

It’s all rubbish!

The chart below of the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaking above 16,000 makes it look like people just woke up the morning of November 18 and said, “I need to rush out and buy stocks today!”

In my opinion, we are looking at the biggest bear market trap we’ve ever seen. The year 2008 is a distant memory. The notion of fear of “missing out” is back.

Investors are pouring billions into stocks…

Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

According to the Investment Company Institute, long-term U.S. equity mutual funds had a net inflow of $5.4 billion for the week ended November 6. In the prior week, which ended on October 30, investors bought $4.2 billion worth of long-term U.S. equity mutual funds. (Source: Investment Company Institute, November 13, 2013.)

As investors are pouring back into stocks, the fundamentals that drive the key stock indices are dissipating. Each day, we hear weak economic news, which suggests key stock indices are moving beyond reality. And the disparity between the performance of key stock indices and the most basic fundamentals continues to grow.

Corporate earnings of companies in key stock indices are very weak. The corporate earnings “surprise” rate (this is the rate that shows how much higher or lower corporate earnings were registered) came in at 1.8% in the third quarter—far below the four-year average of 6.5%.

S&P 500 companies posted an increase in … Read More

If the U.S. Government Did What the Canadians Did, We Wouldn’t Be in This Mess!

By for Profit Confidential

For its fiscal year (ended September 30, 2013), the U.S. government posted a budget deficit of $680 billion…that’s after four years of annual trillion-dollar budget deficits. And with the onset of a new fiscal year, the trend continues. (There are projections the U.S. government will have a budget deficit each year until at least 2038.)

The Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service reported the U.S. government registered a budget deficit of $92.0 billion in the first month of its fiscal year 2014 (October 2013). The government’s revenues were $199 billion, and its spending amounted to $291 billion. (Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Department of the Treasury, November 13, 2013.)

As a result of continuous budget deficits, the national debt has skyrocketed to $17.0 trillion, and with the crises that are currently taking place in the U.S. economy—municipal bankruptcies, soaring pension liabilities, and student debt delinquencies—I expect it to go to $34.0 trillion.

On the other hand, there’s the Canadian government. According to its most recent economic and fiscal projection, it expects to have a budget surplus (when revenues are more than expenses) by its fiscal year 2015-2016. It then plans to use this surplus to start paying off the small national debt it has accumulated. (Source: Department of Finance Canada, November 12, 2013.)

Note the difference: while the U.S. government expects to post budget deficits for a very long time to come, Canada—a major player in the global economy—is very close to a budget surplus.

If the U.S. government continues to follow the same trajectory (spending more and borrowing more), it’s not sustainable in the long … Read More

Three Key Indicators Say U.S. Economy in Trouble

By for Profit Confidential

 budget deficitThe mainstream and politicians tell us the “wounds” of the financial crisis are over and the U.S. economy is in recovery mode. This simply isn’t true.

A few of the key indicators I follow to see where an economy stands are personal income, consumer demand, and businesses’ activity. All three of these indicators are telling me the U.S. economy is definitely going in the wrong direction.

First of all, the income gap in the U.S. economy continues to grow. The top earners make more, while the lowest income earners make less. According to the Wage Statistic from Social Security, in 2012, 23 million of the lowest wage earners earned a total of $47.0 billion in the U.S. economy. But those who earned $10.0 million or more annually in the year 2012 earned $64.3 billion! Here comes the kicker: there were only 2,915 wage earners in this category in the U.S. economy last year. (Source: Social Security, November 5, 2013.) Yes, you read that right. Less than 3,000 people cumulatively made more than 23 million people.

The bottom line: while Wall Street and big business has boomed again, the average working American family is struggling under an after-inflation personal income that is lower than it was in 2009—four years ago. In 1999, real median household income (that’s adjusted for inflation) in the U.S. economy was $56,030. By 2012, that number was $51,017. (Source: “Real Median Household Income in the United States,” U.S. Department of Commerce, September 18, 2013.)

Next, American consumers are pulling back on their spending—something that’s not supposed to happen when an economy is recovering.

One indicator of consumer … Read More

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