While many are pessimistic about the performance of silver, my silver price forecast for 2015 is bullish. In fact, I believe the demand for silver will surprise investors this year. There are two main reasons that keep me bullish towards silver: complacency in the stock market and the fragile bonds market.Let me explain…Have Investors Forgotten 2007?The Volatility Index (VIX) traded on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). Read More
As evidence of the difficult times being experienced in the mining industry, Joy Global Inc. (JOY), a Milwaukee-based company that’s one of the top manufacturers of surface and underground mining equipment, reported a double-digit decline in sales, bookings, and earnings.Commodities and Mining Sectors StrugglingWhether it’s for coal, iron ore, oil sands, copper, gold, or other precious metal, the entire industry is struggling. It’s a tough. Read More
Over the past two days, I have been attending a convention hosted by the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. This is one of the world’s biggest events where mining industry experts and associations meet and talk about exploration and development opportunities across the globe. Mining companies also showcase their projects here each year. Attendees can meet firms that provide services to mining companies as. Read More
As prices for silver and gold started falling in 2013, my prediction was that lower prices for the precious metals would cause miners to cut back on the exploration and development of new mines, eventually stunting supply. And that is exactly what has happened. In the case of silver, the cutback on supply has been significant.Production of silver from mines in Canada, a major silver-producing country, is collapsing.In. Read More
As the chart below illustrates, since July of this year, the U.S. dollar has been rallying against other major world currencies.I, for one, do not expect to see the rally in the U.S. dollar sustained. I believe the U.S. dollar is currently rallying, because other parts in the global economy are doing worse than the U.S. While the U.S. dollar may rise in the short-term, because our central bank. Read More
If there’s one sector of the stock market still poised for more capital gains, it has to be in domestic oil and gas producers.This sector continues to be a top wealth creator. Most of the action is in the junior and mid-tier producers, as well as the limited partnerships focused on storage and distribution.On the other hand, large, integrated producers are running into oil equivalent production issues. Both. Read More
The strength in this market is with oil, as both the spot price and oil stocks are holding up very well.While the broader market has been experiencing a well-deserved price retrenchment, both large- and small-cap oil stocks have been on the comeback trail. The price strength is helpful as speculative fervor continues to come out of equities. The performance illustrates how helpful sectoral portfolio diversification can be when asset. Read More
The S&P 500 index really hasn’t done much since the beginning of the year but churn…but then again, why shouldn’t it?For stocks, 2013 was an exceptional year. If we get another positive year on top of dividends, then it’s total gravy.The capital gains over the last several years have been highly unusual, representative of the gains often seen after a major financial crisis.There are no bandwagons to. Read More
Quite a bit of speculative fervor has been zapped out of this market, which is helpful for the longer-run trend.With the exception of biotechnology stocks, trading action has softened in initial public offerings (IPOs), 3D (three-dimensional) printer stocks, cloud software stocks, and even a lot of restaurant stocks that only recently were very hot.The stock market is just a continuing cycle of fluctuating investor sentiment. Valuations among junior. Read More
In the month of November, the U.S. government registered a budget deficit of $135 billion. Over the course of the month, it spent $318 billion and only took in $182 billion. So far for the fiscal year 2014, which began in October, the U.S. government has registered a budget deficit of $227 billion; that’s an average of $113.5 billion a month so far this fiscal year. (Source: Department of the. Read More
Immediate term outlook:
The bear market rally in stocks that started in March 2009, extended because of unprecedented central bank money printing, is coming to an end. Gold bullion is up $1,000 an ounce since we first recommended it in 2002 and we are still bullish on the metal.
Short-to-medium term outlook:
World economies are entering their slowest growth period since 2009. The Chinese economy grew last year at its slowest pace in 24 years. Japan is in recession. The eurozone is in depression. With almost half the S&P 500 companies deriving revenue outside the U.S., slower world economic growth will negatively impact revenue and earnings growth of American companies. Domestically, the U.S. economy is also entering a slow growth phase (1Q15 GDP of 0.2%) which will negatively impact an already overpriced equity market.
Estimates May. 22, 2015
Trailing 12-month EPS for Dow Jones companies (Most Recent Quarter)