I’d like to turn the keyboard today over to my colleague Anthony Jasansky, P. Eng. He’s been a 30-plus-year student of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and I agree with what he says below in his analysis of the where the market is headed between now and the end of 2012.
As Anthony says below, as traders increase or lower their positions over the next four weeks; I see the .
I know most people are tired about hearing of the economic problems in the eurozone. But my readers need to be aware: a new perfect storm is brewing because of that situation.
The credit crisis in the eurozone has already created enough troubles in the global economy, but it is threatening to trigger more. Here is what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last week, “…the elevated levels of stress in .
The stock market has more downside over the near term, but it’s likely to hit a floor as soon as price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples are no longer excessive. In many ways, the current pullback is the selloff we didn’t get after the third round of quantitative easing (QE3) was announced. This is a market that’s fragile, and investors are worried about new austerity measures in the near future.
As the main .
Over the last 12 months, there has been some serious wealth creation from the stock market. Now things are pulling back, because global economic reality has finally usurped the artificial enthusiasm regarding the third round of quantitative easing (QE3). (See “Warning: QE3 Rally Is Now Over.”) As we know, not all industry groups have experienced the same levels of business conditions this year. But as a stock market sector, some .
The corporate earnings growth of companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is falling at a staggering rate—something I started warning about during the second quarter of this year. Sadly, the trend of declining corporate earnings growth will only continue.
All the pieces are falling into place now. In these pages, I have been rigorously warning about rising key stock market indices; in the third quarter of 2012, the Dow .
Since the financial crisis of 2008, the U.S. economy has yet to find the path to economic growth. Economists like me believe we are in for a deep and dark period for the U.S. economy.
As we all know, the Federal Reserve announced a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) on September 13, 2012. I continue to wonder how many more bouts of quantitative easing we will see in the .
On the eve of the presidential election, the world and America are anxiously waiting to see whether President Obama or Governor Mitt Romney will become the 45th U.S. President.
The outcome of Tuesday night will be critical not only for the direction of the country on both the political and economic front, but also on the direction of foreign policy.
The latest national poll by CNN has the race to .
If there is one international business in which you could still say, “business is booming,” it would be Visa Inc. (NYSE/V). The company just reported its fiscal fourth-quarter and year-end financial results and the numbers were great. This company has been a powerhouse wealth-creator on the stock market and so far has been immune to the economic woes facing the largest economies.
The company’s revenues grew to $2.7 billion in .
In September, consumer spending grew 0.8%, after an unrevised rate of 0.5% in August, and the figure beat consensus. With Hurricane Sandy closing the stock market today, I still think the near-term trend is lower. The S&P 500 Index is right at its 100-day moving average (MA) and is likely to break it. Most blue chips have been deteriorating since the beginning of the month. The stock market is not .
The initial support for the third round of quantitative easing (QE3) has faded as the focus shifts to earnings, the economy, the pending fiscal cliff, and the presidential election. I think there’s a sense that QE3 is not the savior to the stagnant gross domestic product (GDP) growth in America, but is only a gamble. The reality is that the flow of easy money will largely reward the top one .
Immediate term outlook:
The bear market rally in stocks that started in March 2009, extended because of unprecedented central bank money printing, is coming to an end. Gold bullion is up $1,000 an ounce since we first recommended it in 2002 and we are still bullish on the physical metal.
Short-to-medium term outlook:
World economies are entering their slowest growth period since 2009. The Chinese economy grew last year at its slowest pace in 24 years. Japan is in recession. The eurozone is in depression. With almost half the S&P 500 companies deriving revenue outside the U.S., slower world economic growth will negatively impact revenue and earnings growth of American companies. Domestically, America’s gross domestic product grew by only a meager 2.3% in the second quarter, which will negatively impact an already overpriced equity market.
Estimates Aug. 30, 2015
Trailing 12-month EPS for Dow Jones companies (Most Recent Quarter)