quantitative easing

Money Supply Strongly Suggests Higher Inflation Ahead

By Friday, November 7, 2014

Money Supply Strongly Suggests Higher Inflation AheadAsk even an amateur economist, and they will tell you this: an increasing money supply eventually leads to inflation. It’s a simple concept; the more paper money there is in the system, the less it’s worth and the less it buys.

And this is exactly what is happening in the U.S. economy. The money supply is growing at a fast rate when compared to historical averages.

Consider the chart below … Read More

How Markets Will Handle End of Money Printing Era

By Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Markets Will Handle End of Money Printing EraIt’s finally over…

The quantitative easing programs initially started by the Federal Reserve six years ago are (for now) history.

In its statement on October 29, the Federal Reserve said, “Accordingly, the Committee decided to conclude its asset purchase program this month.” (Source: “FOMC Statement,” Federal Reserve, October 29, 2014.)

The reason for ending the quantitative easing: “The Committee judges that there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook … Read More

Why the Housing Market Points to Very Weak 2015 Economy

By Monday, November 3, 2014

Housing Market Points to Very Weak 2015 EconomyThe chart below shows us that between April and August of this year, home prices in the U.S. declined. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index is only released 60 days after each month’s end, so while data for September and October are not yet available, based on what I’m about to tell you, five years after the Great Recession, the U.S. housing market is on shaky ground again.

According to … Read More

These Poor 3Q Earnings Reports Foretell 2015’s Economy

By Friday, October 31, 2014

Poor 3Q Earnings Reports Foretell 2015’s EconomyAccording to research by UC Berkeley, in 2012, the top one percent of income earners in the U.S. earned 22.5% of all the income. The bottom 90%, on the other hand, earned less than 50% of all the income. (Source: Pew Research Center, January 7, 2014.) Income inequality in the U.S. economy is the highest it has been since 1928. The rich are getting richer, and the poor are seeing … Read More

About That QE4…

By Monday, October 20, 2014

Another Round of Money Printing Coming SoonIt’s widely expected that at the end of this month, the Federal Reserve will end its third round of quantitative easing (that began in September of 2012). This is QE3, where the Federal Reserve was printing $85.0 billion of new money every month and using it to buy U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In the beginning of 2014, the Fed started reducing the amount of money it was printing … Read More

What the Smart Money Is Doing Now

By Friday, October 3, 2014

Smart MoneyAccording to the Investment Company Institute, assets in institutional money market funds increased $17.19 billion to $1.69 trillion for the week ended on September 24, 2014. This was the biggest weekly increase in these money market funds in the last five months. (Source: Investment Company Institute web site, last accessed October 1, 2014.)

This is critical: when institutional investors sense the risk of a stock market sell-off in key stock … Read More

If the Economy Is Improving, Why Are Investors Pricing in a Slowdown?

By Monday, August 11, 2014

U.S. Economy Slowing Down Here in 2014The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) surprised even the most optimistic of economists when it reported the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of four percent in the second quarter of 2014.

On the surface, the number—four percent growth—sounds great. But how serious should we take that gross domestic product (GDP) figure?

Firstly, I’d like to start by pointing out that the BEA often revises its GDP numbers downward. … Read More

Why We Are Closer to a Recession in 2014 Than You Think

By Friday, June 13, 2014

U.S. Economy to Fall into a Recession This QuarterDon’t buy into the notion that there’s economic growth in America!

We’ve already seen U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) “unexpectedly” decline in the first quarter of 2014, and now there are signs of another contraction in the current quarter. (The technical definition of a recession is two negative quarters of GDP—we’re halfway there!)

As you know, consumer spending is the biggest part of our U.S. economy, accounting for about two-thirds … Read More

The Downside to Dow 20,0000

By Friday, June 13, 2014

Where the Stock Market Could Head NextWith the Dow Jones hitting 17,000 being pretty likely in the not-too-distant future, from there, it’s only another 18% or so until the Dow hits 20,000, which is pretty incredible.

These numbers seemed so unrealistic just a few years ago but now, it’s not too farfetched. The most amazing thing to me is that stocks still haven’t experienced a material price correction since the financial crisis.

Stocks aren’t necessarily stretched … Read More

The New Land of Oz

By Wednesday, May 28, 2014

When Gold Will Finally BottomYesterday was an amazing day for the markets.

Gold bullion hit a three-month low despite: 1) inflation rising rapidly in North America; and 2) the Chinese buying half of this year’s world gold production.

The stock market was up to a new high despite: 1) corporate insiders selling like mad; 2) corporate earnings growth collapsing; 3) the amount of money investors have borrowed to buy stocks standing at a record … Read More