recession

Recession Ahead for U.S. Economy; These Two Indicators Say Yes

By Wednesday, June 17, 2015

recessionSome very interesting news (or should I say warnings) to share with my readers today…If you’ve been reading Profit Confidential for some time now, you know I am predicting a recession in late 2015 or early 2016. A recession is technically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP). We are almost half-way there (in respect to a recession happening) because we experienced negative GDP growth. Read More

Truth Behind So-Called “Recovery” in the U.S. Economy

By Monday, June 15, 2015

U.S. Economy SufferingLast Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in the month of May, 280,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy. The unemployment rate was unchanged and stood at 5.5%. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 5, 2015.)If you just look at the current unemployment rate, it’s a massive improvement from the 10% unemployment rate seen in the midst of the Great Recession. But here’s what the. Read More

U.S. GDP Contracts in 1Q15; Economy Halfway to a Recession This Year

By Monday, June 1, 2015

U.S. GDPEarlier this year in Profit Confidential, I wrote that I wouldn’t be surprised to see the U.S. economy enter a recession in 2015. I got a lot of flak here from my fellow economists…even some of my customers thought that prediction was too far off.But, lo and behold; we are already halfway there.On Friday, according to the revised numbers, we learned that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) contracted. Read More

Recession in Late 2015 a Strong Possibility as U.S. Economy Slows at Alarming Pace

By Friday, May 22, 2015

Recession in Late 2015Is the U.S. economy getting close to a recession? Rising business inventory and slowing consumption say yes.In these pages, I have argued over and over again that consumption data is important; it’s the biggest part of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) calculation. And, currently, consumption in the U.S. economy is stalling at an alarming pace.I look at consumer consumption to see how businesses are reacting, and how. Read More

U.S. Economy Faces Budget Crisis in 32 American States

By Thursday, May 21, 2015

U.S. EconomyWe are frequently told that the U.S. economy has recovered from the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009. However, according to a recent report, 32 states still face budget gaps in fiscal 2015, 2016, or both. (Source: Reuters, April 27, 2015.)Does a Revenue Problem Mean Higher Taxes in the Future?The fact that a majority of states are facing budget gaps “serves as an early warning,” according to S&P. Read More

Global Economy Remains Weak; Another Recession Coming?

By Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Global EconomyIt has been six years since the global economy and U.S. entered the worst recession since the Great Depression. While many are championing the economic recovery, on closer inspection, it looks like history might repeat itself sooner rather than later.U.S. Economy Grows at Slowest Pace Since WWIIThe rate of growth in the U.S has been dismal since the 2008 housing bubble and financial crisis topped the country into. Read More

U.S. Economy in Recession Already? Business Inventories Piling Up

By Thursday, May 14, 2015

U.S. Economy in RecessionIs the U.S. economy in more trouble than we realized? On Wednesday, May 13, the U.S. Census Bureau released the March 2015 Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report. Sales for March are down 2.1% compared to the same period last year. Business inventories are up 2.9% year-over-year.The total March business inventory-to-sales ratio is at 1.36. The ratio for last March was 1.30.So…what does that mean?Sales Down, . Read More

Two Top Recession-Resistant Dental Businesses

By Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Two Top Recession-Resistant Dental BusinessesA lot of stocks don’t get into the headlines, but just because they aren’t an Apple Inc. (AAPL) or Facebook, Inc. (FB), it doesn’t mean they’re not good businesses. In fact, there are two dental businesses that are a great example of this.Virtually everyone wants growth and the equity investing marketplace, which is mostly pooled money referred to as institutional, will pay for it, chase it, and trade it. Read More

What Canada/China’s Yuan Trade Deal Means for U.S. Dollar

By Friday, November 14, 2014

How Long Will This U.S. Dollar Rally LastAs the chart below illustrates, since July of this year, the U.S. dollar has been rallying against other major world currencies.I, for one, do not expect to see the rally in the U.S. dollar sustained. I believe the U.S. dollar is currently rallying, because other parts in the global economy are doing worse than the U.S. While the U.S. dollar may rise in the short-term, because our central bank. Read More

Money Supply Strongly Suggests Higher Inflation Ahead

By Friday, November 7, 2014

Money Supply Strongly Suggests Higher Inflation AheadAsk even an amateur economist, and they will tell you this: an increasing money supply eventually leads to inflation. It’s a simple concept; the more paper money there is in the system, the less it’s worth and the less it buys.And this is exactly what is happening in the U.S. economy. The money supply is growing at a fast rate when compared to historical averages.Consider the chart below. Read More

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From: Michael Lombardi, MBA
Subject: Gold: The Stock Contrarian Investors’ Best Play of the Decade

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