recession

What Canada/China’s Yuan Trade Deal Means for U.S. Dollar

By Friday, November 14, 2014

How Long Will This U.S. Dollar Rally LastAs the chart below illustrates, since July of this year, the U.S. dollar has been rallying against other major world currencies.

I, for one, do not expect to see the rally in the U.S. dollar sustained. I believe the U.S. dollar is currently rallying, because other parts in the global economy are doing worse than the U.S. While the U.S. dollar may rise in the short-term, because our central bank … Read More

Money Supply Strongly Suggests Higher Inflation Ahead

By Friday, November 7, 2014

Money Supply Strongly Suggests Higher Inflation AheadAsk even an amateur economist, and they will tell you this: an increasing money supply eventually leads to inflation. It’s a simple concept; the more paper money there is in the system, the less it’s worth and the less it buys.

And this is exactly what is happening in the U.S. economy. The money supply is growing at a fast rate when compared to historical averages.

Consider the chart below … Read More

Why the Housing Market Points to Very Weak 2015 Economy

By Monday, November 3, 2014

Housing Market Points to Very Weak 2015 EconomyThe chart below shows us that between April and August of this year, home prices in the U.S. declined. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index is only released 60 days after each month’s end, so while data for September and October are not yet available, based on what I’m about to tell you, five years after the Great Recession, the U.S. housing market is on shaky ground again.

According to … Read More

These Poor 3Q Earnings Reports Foretell 2015’s Economy

By Friday, October 31, 2014

Poor 3Q Earnings Reports Foretell 2015’s EconomyAccording to research by UC Berkeley, in 2012, the top one percent of income earners in the U.S. earned 22.5% of all the income. The bottom 90%, on the other hand, earned less than 50% of all the income. (Source: Pew Research Center, January 7, 2014.) Income inequality in the U.S. economy is the highest it has been since 1928. The rich are getting richer, and the poor are seeing … Read More

Strategies for Investing in These Chaotic Markets

By Friday, October 24, 2014

Strategies for Investing

Here we go again. Just when the stock market is moving lower and forecasting a potential correction, we see buying emerging, driving the bears back to the woods.

The reality is that I was looking for the S&P 500 to potentially correct 10%, down to around 1,792, something that has not materialized in about two years. It would, in my view, represent a good buying opportunity to accumulate shares at … Read More

About That QE4…

By Monday, October 20, 2014

Another Round of Money Printing Coming SoonIt’s widely expected that at the end of this month, the Federal Reserve will end its third round of quantitative easing (that began in September of 2012). This is QE3, where the Federal Reserve was printing $85.0 billion of new money every month and using it to buy U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In the beginning of 2014, the Fed started reducing the amount of money it was printing … Read More

The Flight Back Down to Reality Ahead for the Rich

By Friday, September 26, 2014

Stock Market Bubble Starting to Show Signs of StressSix years ago this month, in the midst of the Great Recession, Lehman Brothers, one of the most well-known investment banks in the U.S. economy, filed for bankruptcy.

At the time, Lehman’s bankruptcy sparked widespread worries…and the U.S. financial system teetered on the verge of collapse. For those of us who remember that time, there was too much uncertainty.

So, the Federal Reserve and the government stepped in to help … Read More

Why the Old School Dow Theory Still Applies

By Friday, September 19, 2014

The Most Important Stocks to FollowGetting a sense of where stocks are going to go in the year ahead is always difficult with the major indices at their all-time highs.

The fundamental backdrop is still very favorable for equities. While the Federal Reserve has put off raising interest rates for the near future, the cost of capital, especially for corporations, remains extremely low. And corporate balance sheets remain in excellent condition with strong cash positions … Read More

About That $38-Million Ferrari…

By Wednesday, September 10, 2014

The Other Side of the Ferrari StoryA 1962 Ferrari 250 GTO Berlinetta has set a new record selling for $38.1 million at an auction in Pebble Beach, California. News of the sale was all over the Internet and made it into major newspapers like The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and the Los Angeles Times.

But it’s not just old, rare cars that are selling. The high-end luxury car market is … Read More

Another Warning Sign: Stocks Hit Highs on Collapsing Volume

By Friday, September 5, 2014

The Only Bear Left StandingSo the S&P 500 has touched the 2,000 mark.

Will the S&P 500 continue to march to new highs?

Well, my opinion towards the stock market hasn’t changed. I remain skeptical for a variety of reasons, many of which I have shared with my readers over the past few months.

But I have a new concern about the stock market, something that hasn’t been touched on by analysts: trading volume … Read More