Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

Sovereign Debt

Stock Market: Where the Real Risk Is in 2014…

By | January 22, 2014

Risk Returns to Earnings ResultsThe Dow Jones Transportation Average is still very close to its all-time high, and so are countless component companies. The airlines, in particular, have been very strong in a classic bull market breakout performance. Many of these stocks have roughly doubled over the last 12 months.

Commensurate with continued strength in the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks and year-to-date outperformance of the NASDAQ Composite, this is still a very … Read More

Earnings Reports Masking the Rest of the Equation: Risk Remains High

By | July 29, 2013

Earnings Reports Masking the Rest of the EquationIt is earnings season and corporate numbers are plentiful. Blue chips are mostly reporting decent financial metrics, but I want to address the other side of the equation.

Investment risk in many capital market assets is still very high. And the reason why it’s very high is the fiscal and monetary experiments taking place around the world.

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) announced another good quarter that beat expectations, and while the … Read More

What Was Behind the Stock Market’s Massive Breakout?

By | May 29, 2013

What Was Behind the Stock Market’s Massive BreakoutSomething big happened at the beginning of the year—Wall Street gave up on Washington.

I’ve been trying to figure out how this incredible stock market action started at the beginning of the year. Things were trending fairly normally, and then institutional investors just started buying—blue chips first, a little break in February, then blue chips again, with a broadening out into the NASDAQ.

But there wasn’t any big catalyst that … Read More

This Stock’s 24% Year-to-Date Gain Signaling a Buy Opportunity?

By | May 17, 2013

This Stock’s 24% Year-to-Date Gain Signaling a Buy Opportunity“Opportunity cost”—it’s a phrase used in microeconomic theory to denote the costs that are forgone by not having your resources in the highest returning assets.

It is a phrase that’s pertinent to the stock market.

Without question, I remain completely taken aback by what has transpired with the stock market since the beginning of the year.

Looking at the numbers, not being invested in many corporations has been costly.

Excluding … Read More

Growing American Business Inventories Paint Worrisome Picture

By | April 25, 2013

Growing American Business InventoriesThe biggest economic center in the global economy, the U.S., showed dismal growth in the last quarter of 2012. Sadly, the first quarter of 2013 is looking to be the same. Demand in the country is anemic at best as consumers are struggling.

New durable goods orders in the U.S. economy plunged 5.7% in March—the second decline in the first three months of 2013. (Source: United States Census Bureau, April … Read More

Financial Reports

Why a Downgrade in the Credit Rating of U.S. Debt Is Imminent

By | April 25, 2013

A report from Standard & Poor’s (S&P), the credit rating agency, indicates there is more than a one-third chance that Japanese sovereign debt could face a downgrade. The report stated, “…the continuing prospect arises from risks associated with recent government initiatives and uncertainty of their success.” (Source: Janowski, T., “S&P says more than one-third chance of Japan downgrade, cites risks to Abenomics,” Reuters, April 22, 2013.)

In an effort to … Read More

Investor’s Manifesto: Five Motivations for Beating Market Chaos and Risk

By | April 24, 2013

Five Motivations for Beating MarketThe stock market is close to double-digit growth so far this year, as corporations continue to report modest earnings results.

Playing a market at an all-time high is tough. It makes me think a lot more about risk, portfolio strategy, and how to consider new positions—if any at all.

As a stock market investor/speculator, here are five motivations to keep in mind:

1. Business

When you buy one share of … Read More

What the Global Economy Could Learn from Sweden’s “Mr. Fix-It”

By | April 10, 2013

Global Economy Could Learn from Sweden’sIt is absolutely critical that you evaluate all your holdings for risk.

The U.S. stock market needs to correct, but the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the euro currency together remain a festering powder keg.

The real problem for the euro is the lack of leadership—in banking and politics—in the region. There is no flexibility in the euro currency to help those countries in need.

The failure of decisive … Read More

Two Emerging Markets Stomping U.S. Growth

By | March 11, 2013

Markets Stomping U.S. GrowthWhen the U.S. equities market crashes, most foreign stocks do as well. But when it comes to capital appreciation, the correlation ends. Domestic Chinese stocks experienced a small resurgence lately, but they are still well down from their peak in 2007. China is still very much an emerging market, but several other emerging markets are doing much better. These economies are experiencing growth in domestic demand and are also selling … Read More

Small-Cap Stocks at Record Highs: Uncle Ben Worked His Magic, but Soon It’s Going to End

By | March 6, 2013

Small-Cap Stocks at Record HighsThe Russell 2000 Index, which is generally considered to be the benchmark index for small-cap stocks, is doing well and has been doing well for some time now. The index is at an all-time record high, having recovered extremely well since the subprime mortgage–induced financial crisis. Its performance is quite amazing considering the weak gross domestic product (GDP) growth we’ve been experiencing.

Small-cap stocks, like the rest of the stock … Read More

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